本文来自《经济学人》The Economist June 17th 2017 Leaders专栏
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Housing markets 房产市场
Maple grief 悲伤的枫叶
The lessons from Canada’s attempts to curb its house-price boom
从加拿大试图阻止房产泡沫中我们学到了什么
IN MATTERS of finance, if not climate, Canada is usually temperate. It was barely moved by the economic storms that blew the roof off America and Europe in 2008-09. Its banks were steady, it was argued,in part because they were shielded fromthe ferocious competition for marketshare that pushed banks elsewhere into hazardous loans. For all that, in its housing market Canada has lately become a place of extremes.
抛开气候，就经济环境来说，加拿大总是风平浪静。08年九月的经济危机，席卷了美国和欧洲，而加拿大却并没有什么影响。有人认为虽然这么说有争议，加拿大的银行业很稳定，一部分原因由于它避开了激烈的市场份额竞争，没有那么多银行坏账。尽管加拿大如此稳定，但是最近它的住房市场却走向了极端。
Household debt has climbed toalmost 170% of post-tax income. House prices rose by 20% in the year to April.Looked at relative to rents,they have deviated from theirl ong-run average by more than any other big country The Economist covers in its global house-price index. InToronto, one of two cities,along with Vancouver, where the boom has been concentrated,rental yields are barely above the cost of borrowing, even though interest rates are at record lows. In itstwice-yearly health-check on the financial system, published this month, theBank of Canada concluded that“extrapolative expectations” are a feature of the market. In other words,people are buying because they hope, or fear, that prices will keep rising.
加拿大家庭债务升到税后收入的近170%。今年至四月份以来，房价上涨了20%.相对于房屋租赁来看，房价偏离了长期平均水平，比经济学人在其全球房价指数中所涵盖的任何其他大国都高出很多。激增的房价集中体现在在多伦多和温哥华两个城市，高额的房租甚至超过了利率最低时候的贷款。在本月公布的一年两度的经济健康调查中，加拿大银行得出结论“推定预期”是市场的一个特征。换句话说，因为希望或担心价格会不断上涨，人们购买房产。
long-run average长期平均状况
conclud 得出结论
feature 特征
Canadais not alone. House prices alsolook highrelative to rentsin Australia, where a few cities, notably Sydney and Melbourne,are booming. Prices in some American cities, such as Seattle and San Francisco,have been rising much faster than the national market, which looks reasonablypriced.
无独有偶。澳大利亚的房价相比房租也很高，在少数几个城市，特别是悉尼和墨尔本房价也窜上了天。在一些美国城市，例如西雅图和旧金山，房价上涨速度远远快于看起来价格合理的全国市场。
Common to all these cities are buyersfrom emerging markets,notablyChina, who have helped to drive a wedge between the price of homes andthe local fundamentals of incomesand rental payments. They are willing to pay above the odds to secure a safe place for theirsavings. Though fairly small innumber, their presence is enough to inflate bubbles.
所有这些城市的共同点是来自新兴市场的买家，尤其是中国，他们帮助制造了房价与当地基本收入、房屋租金之间的隔阂。他们为了储蓄的安全乐意付出更高的价格。虽然这样的人实际上非常少，但他们的出现足够引起房地产泡沫。
Commonto all
drive a wedge
odds
Canada’s housing market thus opens a window on a tragic flaw in the global economy. In only afew decades China has mastered the manufacture of high-quality goods.But it takes far longer to be able to manufacture safe stores of value.Instead, their affluent citizens seek out rich-countryassets, including houses.This fundamental mismatch limits theability of policymakers to stop bubbles from inflating.
因此，加拿大的住房市场打开了一个全球经济悲剧性缺陷的窗口。在短短数十年间中国就已经掌握了优质产品的制造。但想要安全的储存积蓄，中国需要的远不止数十年。相反，中国的富人们寻求发达国家的资产来保证他们的储蓄，比如说房子。这种根本性的错位限制了决策者阻止泡沫经济的能力。
Thus因此
tragic flaw (悲剧主角性格中的)悲剧性缺点
seekout寻求
mismatch失配
Raising interest rates, which stand at just 0.5% in Canada, might seem the obvious answer. The economy is recovering and this week the Bank of Canada’s deputy governor has hinted that rates might climb.But several rises in successio nmight be needed to cool the housing market and that would probably send theeconomy into recession.
提高利率似乎是显而易见的答案，加拿大利率仅仅0.5%。经济正在恢复，本周加拿大银行的副总裁暗示利率还会升高。但一系列的房贷利率上升，一方面给房地产市场降温的同时也可能导致经济衰退。
stand at
deputy governor副总裁
deputy代表
succession一系列，接连
recession经济衰退
Theauthorities have instead attempted to deal with the problem at its source. Last summer Vancouver imposed a 15% taxon foreigners’ house purchases. The city’s property market has since cooled.But one effect of this extra taxhas been to shift housing demand to other places, such as nearby Victoria, and to Toronto, where house-priceinflation is above 30%. The province of Ontario imposed a similar tax in April,prompting fears of a price surge inMontreal. To improve the supply of rental properties, Ontario has also permitted cities to slap a tax on vacant homes. That will help, but it will not solve the problem. There are tentative signs that prices in Vancouver are reviving,suggesting that the tax there has only deterred foreign buyers temporarily. In any event, some foreign owners hope to settle in Canada soon, and so will be entitled to claim a rebate.
与地方不同，加拿大当局试图釜底抽薪。去年夏天，在温哥华购房的外国人要额外缴纳15%的购房税。温哥华的房地产市场就此降温。但增税将温哥华的买房者推去了周边城市，比如维多利亚和多伦多，房价通货膨胀超过了30%。安大略省在四月份引入了相似的购房税，引发了对蒙特利尔价格飙升的担忧。为了改善租赁房屋的供应，安大略省也通过了对空置房屋征税。虽然有所缓解，但不能彻底解决问题。有许多初步迹象表明温哥华的房价将要恢复，暗示增税只是为了暂时阻挡那些外国炒房客。不管怎么说，确实有一些外籍购房者希望马上能够在加拿大定居，以便于有权要求退税。
propertymarket房地产市场
prompting推动，提示，鼓舞
tentative试探性
tentativesigns初步迹象
reviving恢复
deter阻止
suggesting暗示
Inany event不管发生什么事，在任何情况下，无论如何
entitledto享有; [法]有权要求;
There is no fail-safe administrative tool for curbing house-price booms.The best course is to insure against the falloutfrom a house-price bust. Canada has been more active in this than mostcountries.People with mortgages above 80% of the value of the home on which it is secured are obliged to pay for insurance against default.The underwriting standardson such mortgages havebeen steadily tightened. Canada’s biggest banks have some protection againstpotential storms. They are highly profitable and exceed internationalbenchmarks for capital.
没有万无一失的管理手段来抑制房价上涨。最好是为房地产泡沫破裂投保。加拿大在这一点比其他国家更主动。持有抵押贷款占所购房产价值80%以上的人有义务支付违约保险金。这类抵押贷款的承销标准稳步收紧。加拿大的大银行们对潜在的风暴有一定的保护作用。它们的利润很高，超过了资本的国际基准。
fail-safe自动防故障装置
administrative管理的行政的
curb限制
house-price bust房价泡沫
The underwriting standards承销标准
Exceed超过;超越;胜过;越过…的界限;
Benchmarks基准
Capital资本;首都;资源;大写字母;
Strong foundations
Even so, a further tightening of such macroprudential measures would be wise, not because it would do much to slow the rise in house prices but as insurance against their eventual fall. The demand from emerging markets for safe assets will not soondiminish. Recent history shows that big run-ups in property prices oftenreverse suddenly. Better to batten down the hatches now in case the weatherturns bad.
即使如此，进一步收紧这种宏观审慎措施是明智的，不是因为它会大大减缓房价上涨，而是作为防止最终泡沫破裂的保险措施。新兴市场对安全资产的需求不会很快减弱。最近的历史表明，房地产价格的大涨往往突然反转。最好是在天气变坏前未雨绸缪。
Macroprudential宏观审慎
batten downthe hatches封舱,(船只)在暴雨前作好准备
