直觉判断, 专家与一般人不同
The gift of their expertise is that it allows them to have a much better understanding of what goes on behind the locked door of their unconscious.
《决断2秒间》第5章下半讲到专家与一般人直觉判断的不同。如今风行办公室的高级办公椅，推出前曾受到民众和厂商的「讨厌」，推出后却收获意外的成功。这个故事暗示我们的感觉及市场调查似乎失灵了。其实不是。
在草莓果酱好吃程度测评中，一般人的排名跟专家有5成以上相似。但是如果叫一般人说明原因，那我们举出的因素基本上跟专家没有一致性。这意味，我们的直觉并没出错，只是我们没有受过专业训练，所以我们的感觉难以量化比较，叫我们量化分析时，我们就会频频出错。
换言之，专家跟我们的差距，不过厘米之间，一个深探原因，一个浅尝即止。但事情往往是差以毫米，施以千里。叫我们凭第一印象区分可口可乐和百事可乐，可能是容易的。但如果三个杯子中倒了两杯可口可乐一杯百事可乐，再叫我们做出区别，因为这涉及记住第一印象加以分析的思想工作，一般人作对的机率，跟乱猜得差不多。
一个新颖的作品有没有市场，专家也无从定调
They (our snap judgement) are shallow. They are hard to explain and easily disrupted. They aren’t grounded in real understanding.
专家与普通人的区别表示，如果我们想知道一件事的质量如何，我们应该多多仰赖专家。但另一方面，既然消费者的感官跟专家不同，无法定性、容易被引导的，那如果我们想知道一件事的市场前景，专家也无从定调。
AERON高级办公椅，所以能克服最初糟糕的民调而风行，是因为当民众说「讨厌」某事时，意思其实是「不习惯」它新颖的设计。不过，在推行一段时间后，人们渐渐习惯这个设计，而能重视它的高舒适度，才为它缔造佳绩。
另一方面，另类音乐人肯纳就没那么幸运。音乐制作人虽然听出肯纳的价值，但是音乐市场更是凭心而论的地方，失去了如椅子或果酱一样一套科学的判定系统，肯纳无法凭着自己的艺术造诣，就保证自己的音乐具有市场前景，所以肯纳即便得贵人相识，却迟迟无法得到唱片公司更多的资源挹注和推广。
Summary
Common people can hardly distinguish what they hate from what the feel uncomfortable with, especially about unfamiliar things. But experts don’t have the same problem when it comes to explaining their feelings. An expert is a man who learns to decode what lies behind our snap judgement. Simply put, they look inside our unconscious locked room. A Gladwell says “The gift of their expertise is that it allows them to have a much better understanding of what goes on behind the locked door of their unconscious.”
Because common people’s snap judgments are shallow. Our opinions are hard to explain and easily disrupted. Therefore, when it comes to a marketing research, a good questionnaire would include how people feel about rather than how do they come to that conclusion. Also, notably, try to avoid polling about an unfamiliar thing.
Words & Phrases
run counter to something
to be in opposition to something; to run against something.
What we were doing was running counter to that idea of softness
His idea runs counter to good sense.
tentative
1. Not fully worked out, concluded, or agreed on; provisional: tentative plans.
2. Indicating a lack of confidence or certainty; hesitant
They get very tentative about sitting in it.
tentative steps toward the podium.
stripped-down
Having only essential or minimal features; lacking anything extra
In the advertising world and in Silicon Valley, it became a kind of cult object that matched the stripped-down aesthetic of the new economy
a stripped-down stage setting; a stripped-down budget.
take off
(of an enterprise) become successful or popular.
synonyms:succeed, do well, become popular, catch on, progress, prosper, flourish, thrive, boom, turn out well, work (out)
antonyms:fail, flop
His album didn’t take off because he couldn’t get his first single played on Top 40 radio.
the idea really took off
savvy
shrewdness and practical knowledge, especially in politics or business.
But the world of radio is not as savvy as the world of food or the furniture makers at Herman Miller. They prefer a system that cannot measure what it promises to measure.
the corporate-finance bankers lacked the necessary political savvy
