Amazon’s empire

The world’s most remarkable firm may eventually be threatened by its own success.

这个世界上最著名的公司最终也会被他自己的成功所威胁

AMAZON is an extraordinary company. The former bookseller accounts for more

亚马逊是著名的公司。在美国新增线上交易中，书商起家的亚马逊占到一半以上的份额

than half of every new dollar spent online in America. It is the world’s leading

provider of cloud computing. This year Amazon will probably spend twice as

亚马逊是云计算全球领先的供应商。这一年亚马逊将可能花费在HBO上的费用是电视机的两倍以上，一种电缆管道。

much on television as HBO, a cable channel. Its own-brand physical products include batteries, almonds, suits and speakers linked to a virtual voice-activated assistant that can control, among other things, your lamps and sprinkler.

他们自己公司的实体产品包括电池，杏仁，衣服，还有一种扬声器能连接到虚拟的语音控制助手，能控制其他东西，你的台灯，还有洒水器。

Yet Amazon’s shareholders are working on the premise that it is just getting started.

但是亚马逊的股东正在的工作建立在现在正起步的前提。

Since the beginning of 2015 its share price has jumped by 173%, seven times quicker than in the two previous years (and 12 times faster than the S&P 500 index).

自2015年初，亚马逊公司股价飙升173%，增速是前两年的7倍（是标准普尔指数的12倍）

With a market capitalisation of some $400bn, it is the fifth most-valuable firm in the world. Never before has a company been worth so much for so long while making so little money: 92% of its value is due to profits expected after 2020.

亚马逊以约4000亿美元的市值排名全球第五。

从未有一家公司能在盈利如此有限的情况下，长久维持如此之高的市值，其中92%来自2020年以后的预期盈利。

That is because investors anticipate both an extraordinary rise in revenue, from sales of $136bn last year to half a trillion over the next decade, and a jump in profits.

这是因为投资预期和利润的大幅度增长，从去年的1360亿美元的销售额攀升到到未来十年5000亿元，同时利润也有大幅度的增长。

The hopes invested in it imply that it will probably become more profitable than any other firm in America.

这预期的投资在这里面意味着亚马逊有可能成为未来比美国任何一家的公司都更有利润的公司。

Ground for scepticism does not come much more fertile than this: Amazon will have to grow faster than almost any big company in modern history to justify its valuation. Can it possibly do so?

对这些期盼的怀疑最有力的依据是：亚马逊的增长速度必须超过几乎近代史上的任何一家大公司才能支撑其估值。那么亚马逊能做到么？

It is easy to tick off some of the pitfalls. Rivals will not standstill.

列举出一些陷阱是很容易的，竞争对手不会永远停滞不前。

Microsoft has cloud-computing ambitions; Walmart already has revenues nudging $500bn and is beefing up online.If anything happened to Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and boss, the gap would be exceptionally hard to fill. But the striking thing about the company is how much of a chance it has of achieving such unprecedented goals.

微软在云计算上市有野心的。沃尔玛的收入已经接近5000亿美元，并且还在增强线上业务。

如果有任何可能发生在杰夫贝索斯身上，这个亚马逊的创始人，那么这个空白是异常艰难去填补的。但是引人注目的是这家公司有多大的机会去实现这样一个史无前例的目标。

A new sort of basket-case

新形式的无用之物

This is largely due to the firm’s unusual approach to two dimensions of corporate life. The first of these is time. In an era when executives routinely whinge about pressure to produce short-term results, Amazon is resolutely focused on the distant horizon.

这是由于公司两种不同寻常的态度对待公司生活。第一种就是时间。在这个时代，主管们常常抱怨短期目标压力太大，而亚马逊却坚决地聚焦长远目标。

Mr Bezos emphasises continual investment to propelits two principal businesses, e-commerce and Amazon WebServices (AWS), its cloud-computing arm.

贝索斯注重持续的投资来推动两个主要的业务，电子商务和AWS，即它的云计算部门。

In e-commerce, the more shoppers Amazon lures, the more retailers and manufacturers want to sell their goods on Amazon.That gives Amazon more cash for new services—such as two-hour shipping and streaming video and music—which entice more shoppers.

在电子商务上，亚马逊吸引越多的购物者，那么越多的手工制造者和零售商愿意来亚马逊上卖他们的东西。这样就给了亚马逊更多的现金去创造新的服务_——例如两个小时就到的物流和流媒体视频和音乐来吸引跟多的购物者。

Similarly, the more customers use AWS,the more Amazon can invest in new services, which attract more customers. A third virtuous circle is starting to whirl around Alexa, the firm’s voice-activated assistant: as developers build services for Alexa, it becomes more useful to consumers,giving developers reason to create yet more services.

相同地，越多的顾客使用AWS，那么亚马逊可以更多的投资新的服务来吸引顾客。第三个良性循环是围绕着Alexa的，这个公司的声控助手，随着开发者建立Alexa的服务，这对于顾客更实用，给开发者更多的理由去创造更多的服务。

So long as shareholders retain their faith in this model, Amazon’s heady valuation resembles a self-fulfilling prophecy. The company will be able to keep spending, and its spending will keep making it more powerful. Their faith is sustained by Amazon’s record. It has had its failures—its attempt to make a smartphone was a debacle. But the business is starting to crank out cash. Last year cash flow (before investment) was $16bn,more than quadruple the level five years ago.

只要股东保持他们的信心对这个模式，亚马逊的超高估值就类似于能自我实现的预言。公司会有能力去维持支出，同时这个支出还能使公司更加强大。他们的信心是靠亚马逊的业绩维持的。但是亚马逊也是有失败的时候的，它曾尝试制造智能手机就是个失败例子。但是他的业务开始产生大量的现金。上一年的现金流（投资之前）是160亿美金，超过前五年的水平的4倍。

If Amazon’s approach to time-frames is unusual, so too is the sheer breadth of its activities. The company’s list of current and possible competitors, as described in its annual filings, includes logistics firms, search engines, social networks, food manufacturers and producers of “physical, digital and interactive media of all types”.

如果亚马逊在时间框架上的方法是不同寻常的，那么它的业务的广度也是如此。

在公司现在和未来的竞争对手的列表上，如其年报所述，包括物流公司，搜索引擎公司，社交网络，食品制造商和生产商包括“各种类型的实体的，数字媒体的，互动媒体”

A wingspan this large is more reminiscent of a conglomerate than a retailer, which makes Amazon’s share price seem even more bloated: stock markets typically apply a “conglomerate discount” to reflect their inefficiencies.

如此大的广度让人更看起来像是企业集团而不是零售商，这使得亚马逊的股价看起来更虚高：股票市场通常上利用“多元化折让”来反映他们的低效率。

Many of these services support Amazon’s own expansion and that of other companies. The obvious example is AWS,which powers Amazon’s operations as well as those of other firms. But Amazon also rents warehouse space to other sellers.It is building a $1.5bn air-freight hub in Kentucky.

这么多的服务支持着亚马逊的扩张和其他公司的扩张。最明显的例子就是AWS，这项服务支撑着亚马逊的运营和其他公司的运营。但是亚马逊也将仓库租给其他卖家，亚马逊建造花费15亿美元的货物空运中心在肯塔基州

It is testing technology in stores to let consumers skip the cash register altogether,and experimenting with drone deliveries to the home. Such tools could presumably serve other customers,too. Some think that Amazon could become a new kind of utility:one that provides the infrastructure of commerce, from computing power to payments to logistics.

他们正在在商店中试验新科技让顾客跳过现金柜台支付，并且对无人机运送到家进行实验。这样的工具也可能会服务于其他的顾客。一些人认为亚马逊会成为

一种新的公共事业，一种提供商业的基础设施从计算能力到支付到物流。

A giant cannot hide

巨人无处躲藏

And here lies the real problem with the expectations surrounding Amazon.If it gets anywhere close to fulfilling them, it will attract the attention of regulators. For now, Amazon is unlikely to trigger antitrust action. It is not yet the biggest retailer in America, its most mature market.

围绕着亚马逊的期望，真正的问题在于，如果有任何可能去实现他们，这将会吸引监管者的注意。从现在开始，亚马逊不太可能去触发反垄断的开关。在美国最成熟的市场上，亚马逊还不是最大的零售商。

America’s antitrust enforcers look mainly at a firm’s effect on consumers and pricing.Seen through this lens, Amazon appears pristine. Consumers applaud it; it is the most well-regarded company in America,according to a Harris poll. (AWS is a boon to startups, too.)

美国反垄断的实施者看重公司对消费者的影响和其定价。从这个方面来看，亚马逊并无过失。顾客对他赞赏有加，他是美国最受好评的公司根据哈里斯的民意调查（AWS也有利于初创公司）

But as it grows, so will concerns about its power. Even on standard antitrust grounds, that may pose a problem: if it makes as much money as investors hope, a rough calculation suggests its earnings could be worth the equivalent of 25% of the combined profits of listed Western retail and media firms.

但是随着他的发展，对其影响力的担心也是与日俱增，即使在一般的反垄断角度上，这是也是有问题的:如果他赚的钱如投资者的期望，粗略的计算意味着他的盈利相当于西方25%的零售商和媒体公司的联合利润。

But regulators are also changing the way they think about technology.In Europe, Google stands accused of using its clout as a search engine to extend its power to adjacent businesses. The comparative immunity from legal liability of digital platforms—for the posting of inflammatory content on Facebook,say, or the vetting of drivers on Uber—is being chipped away.

但是监管者正在改变他们认为的科学的方式。在欧洲，谷歌被指控用其自家搜索引擎的去扩展临近的业务。数字平台拥有的法律责任的相对豁免权_————facebook出现煽动性内容，和uber的司机的审批——正在初见减弱。

Amazon’s business model will also encourage regulators to think differently. Investors value Amazon’s growth over profits; that makes predatory pricing more tempting. In future,firms could increasingly depend on tools provided by their biggest rival. If Amazon does become a utility for commerce, the calls will grow for it to be regulated as one. Shareholders are right to believe in Amazon’s potential. But success will bring it into conflict with an even stronger beast: government.

尽量翻译，有一些参考来自网络，和笃师。

做最基础翻译，还需要时间升华。

最后一段明天翻译。思维导图也在明天。全部整理在明天。明天好忙啊。