作者们研究了1820-1931发生在拉丁美洲的主权债务违约情况，发现系统性主权违约危机（至少有三分之一的国家集体违约）集中在不同时期的金融中心危机发生附近。这意味着金融中心危机引发的系统性违约危机对边缘国家(periphery countries)有着深远的负面影响。
相对于独立主权违约危机(idiosyncratic crises)，系统性主权违约危机通常是在违约国家international liquity[1]崩溃的过程中萌发。
此外，系统性违约危机时期的受灾国家出口减速程度也远低于独立主权违约危机时期。
这样的情况表明，系统性违约危机和独立违约危机的分野在于，走出系统性违约危机不仅需要阻止international liquity继续下滑，也还要大力提振本国经济。
比之独立主权违约危机，系统性违约危机有着更长的影响期，让投资人遭受更严重的损失。
作者们认为，始于金融中心的系统性违约危机产生的负面影响会令边缘国家陷入冗长无用的债务谈判中。要帮助它们走出违约困境，危机国家需要得到更多的债务减计。
债务减计简直无情（不过我们内心可以这样安慰：反正不也拿不回来钱嘛，倒不如卖个人情...）。中国未来的国际金融中心（上海？）能在世界市场上有着如论文里提到的金融中心那般举足轻重的影响吗？又是否也会在某个时刻（注定）引爆一场世界性的金融危机呢？
原文: Eurozone crisis: Looking back to the future
CheatSheet
linger [VERB]
: When something such as an idea, feeling, or illness lingers, it continues to exist for a long time, often much longer than expected.
portray [VERB]
: To represent or describe someone or something in a painting, film, book or other artistic work
persistent [VERB]
: If an unpleasant feeling or situation persists, it continues to exist
idiosyncratic
: A strange or unusual habit, way of behaving or feature that someone or something has
woe
: extreme sadness
escalate [VERB]
: increase or develop by successive stages; become or make (sth) more intense
mire[NOUN]
: an unpleasant situation which is difficult to escape
ridden [COMB in ADJ]
: full of something unpleasant or bad
erupt [VERB]
: to explode or burst out suddenly
standstill[NOUN]
: a condition in which all movement or activity has stopped
midst [PREP-PHRASE]
: If something happens in the midst of an event, it happens during it
on the heels of
: soon after something.
bonanza
: a situation from which large profits are made
underwriter [N-COUNT]
: If a bank or other organization underwrites an activity, it gives it financial support and takes responsibility for paying any costs if it fails
onset [N-SING]
: The onset of something is the beginning of it, used especially to refer to something unpleasant
insurance [NOUN]
: Release
restructure [VERB]
: To organize a company, business or system in a new way to make it operate more effectively
protracted [ADJ]
: Lasting for a long time or made to last longer
sluggish [ADJ]
: moving or operating more slowly than usual and with less energy or power
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the term 'international liquidity' embraces all those assets which are internationally acceptable without loss of value in discharge of debts (on external accounts. For more details, click What is International Liquidity ↩
