“不要对短期期待过高，不要对长期期待过低”
Do not expect too much for short term return; Do not expect too less for long term return
感谢义康原创分享！
今日感悟
跟李笑来老师学投资，非常喜欢这句话，以及它背后基于概率统计学的道理，于我而言，犹如醍醐灌顶：‘’不要对短期期待过高，不要对长期期待过低。‘’
Learn how to invest from Li XiaoLai and love the sentence so much: "Do not expect too much for short term return; Do not expect too less for long term return". What a wise and sudden enlightened sentence with strong statistics theory behind!
为什么呢？ Why？
一，对于投资来说，这是真正的智慧。
1. It is truly wisdom for investment.
概率统计告诉我们，短期无法预测，长期有可能预测。预测的准确在于自己的知识储备，和等待的时间。时间越长越容易预测准确，知识储备越准确和多维越容易预测准确。
Statistics theory tells us that no way to predict short term but possible long term. The accuracy depends on your knowledge and time. Longer time, more accurate; more knowledge and perspectives, more accurate too.
在投资领域，期望从短期运作获利的行为，是投机，成功率无限接近于0.5，算上交易抽成则低于0.5。期望凭借知识和时间从长期运作获利的行为，是投资，成功率高于0.5，交易次数降低，抽成变小。
In investment arena, It is called SPECULATION, which expects profit from short term transactions. The success rate is close to but always lower than 50% if the commission fees are considered.
It is called INVESTMENT, which expects return from long term operation. The success rate is higher than 50% with less transactions and lower commission fees.
李老师另一句话很好的概括了这个道理：知识就是金钱，时间就是力量！对此，深以为然。
Another wise proverb: knowledge is money, time is power! I couldn't agree more.
二，它不仅仅是关于投资，而是应用于人生方方面面的元习惯
2. It is an essential habit all around life than an investment tool only.
例如，短期冲刺的习惯 vs. 长期修行的习惯。清楚这个道理后，自然会选择后者。带来的好处是更容易获得智慧，心态更放松，更有耐心面对暂时失败和没有进展，不会被暂时的成绩冲昏头脑而懈怠，更有耐心面对外部环境的变化。
For instance let's look at the habit of short distance running versus long term cultivating. You will choose the latter one naturally with the benefits of wisdom,relaxing mindset and being more patient for failure or no progress. You will not fall asleep because of sudden success and more patient adapting to the external changes.
例如，如何做每一个人生重大决策？看长期目标和世界走向，在具体环境变化中捕捉出手的时机。
For example, how to make a life decision? You have to set a long term goal, know the global trend, then be able to catch the balls in right time.
例如，如何制定长期目标？长期了解自己，理解自己的长处，给自己做在大的时间跨度里做定位。
Furthermore, how to set a long term goal? It is learn how to understand yourself, know your advantage and determine your position in long term spectrum of time.
三，它是对战略和战术基本态度。
3. It is fundamental attitude of strategy and tactics
战略关注长期。战术关注短期。战略和战术互相辅助，缺一不可行。但是不要高估战术胜负影响力，不要低估战略上进展和变化的重要性。
Strategy focuses on long term.Tactics focuses on short term. They live together. However don't overestimate the influence of tactically win or lose; and don't underestimate the importance of progress and changes strategically.
战略要靠战术落地。
例如，创意和科学要通过工程和商业变现。刘备需要通过谋士和将领在具体施政攻防中的运作才能最终鼎力三国。
Strategy need to be implemented by tactics.
For example. Innovation and science turns into cash with the engineering and business. Liubei will not stand in three Kingdom without the detailed work from his advisers and generals.
战术要为战略服务。例如，罗胖有一期节目谈到日本侵华，是用一个又一个的战术胜利，把战略一步一步拖入泥潭。对此，深以为然。
Tactics has to serve the purpose of strategy. For instance, Luo Yong Hao mentioned Japan lose their strategy gradually even win a series of campaigns tactically in World War II. I believe so too.
例如，联想收购IBM的PC业务，具体操作上困难重重，文化差异，法律差异，管理方法差异，但是还得硬着头皮做，为什么呢？因为当时联想的业务增长遇到瓶颈，必须寻找下个十年的业务增长点，而收购IBM的PC业务在当时是很好的切入点，所以必须做，多困难都要做。
Lenovo, has to merge and acquire the PC operations from IBM even under the tremendous challenges like difference of culture, code of law, management styles etc. They don't have option in that time when Lenovo business development was facing bottleneck issues. They have to pace the way for next decade and have to utilize the good entry point from IBM to expand. No matter how hard, they must do it.
例如，Facebook收购WhatsApp，收购Oculus，为了准备下个十年的沟通体系。
Another example, Facebook merged with whatsapp adn Oculus for next decade of communication system.
例如，Google收购Youtube，做Tango和DayDream，是为了打造下个十年的流媒体内容体系。
Google got Youtube with Tango and Daydream, for next decade of stream media content system.
每一个战术动作，都不是孤立的，而是有内部连接，共同服务于战略方向的。
Every tactic move is not solo move. It has to serve for the strategy direction internally connected to other tactic.
所以回到这句话，‘’不要对短期期待过高，不要对长期期待过低。‘’ 这句话，很经典。
Let's repeat: "Do not expect too much for short term return; Do not expect too less for long term return".
So classic!
