<a href="http://www.jianshu.com/p/54870e9541fc">总目录</a>
图书信息：
The Singularity is Near / 《奇点临近》
作者：Ray Kurzweil
初版时间：Originally published in 2005
<a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Singularity-Near-Ray-Kurzweil-ebook/dp/B00YLR2R2W/ref=sr_1_1?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1460622623&sr=1-1&keywords=the+singularity+is+near">Amazon</a>
这本书前几天刚看完。虽说此书年月已久，Kurzweil的一些预言已经被证实不大准确，但是从他预言的潮流、世界发展的总体架构看，此书放到今天仍然值得一读。
本书这类似总结、似预言的书籍，我认为大致可以归类成科技哲学类，尤其是在最后一章中，对一些经典质疑的驳斥，哲学意味尤甚。而既然成书的角度是提纲挈领性质，对于书籍最好的把握方式，就是精读一遍目录。
Chapter 1 The Six Epochs
- The Intuitive Linear View Versus the Historical Exponential View
- The Six Epochs
- Epoch 1: Physics and Chemistry.
- Epoch 2: Biology and DNA.
- Epoch 3: Brains.
- Epoch 4: Technology.
- Epoch 5: The Merger of Human Technology with Human Intelligence.
- Epoch 6: The Universe Wakes Up.
笔记：
- 指数增长/exponential growth：如果用指数增长的角度看，Kurzweil认为很多目前不可能的事情在未来都有可能发生。他成书的时候还没有AlphaGo给大众科普AI，现在大家都明了了AI以及其他科技的潜力。
- Kurzweil用exponential growth的角度看，奇点会出现在2045年前后。
- Epoch 5 也就是 Epoch 3 中的brains性能和 Epoch 4 中的 technology性能达到平衡后的产物。一旦两者平衡了，又会产生出何种混合的新事物？按照Kurzweil的推算，我们有生之年可以得见。
Chapter 2 A Theory of Technology Evolution
- The Law of Accelerating Returns
- The Nature of Order.
- The Life Cycle of a Paradigm.
- Fractal Designs.
- Farsighted Evolution.
- The S-Curve of a Technology as Expressed in Its Life Cycle
- The Life Cycle of a Technology.
- From Goat Skins to Downloads.
- Moore's Law and Beyond
- Moore's Law: Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?
- The Fifth Paradigm.
- Fractal Dimensions and the Brain.
- DNA Sequencing, Memory, Communications, the Internet, and Miniaturization
- Information, Order, and Evolution: The Insights from Wolfram and Fredkin's Cellular Automata.
- Can We Evolve Artificial Intelligence from Simple Rules?
- The Singularity as Economic Imperative
- Get Eighty Trillion Dollars—Limited Time Only.
- Deflation ... a Bad Thing?
笔记：
- Accelerating returns即是指慢—快—慢的这种循环往复的S curve
- Fractal theory / 分形理论：「复杂」只不过是「简单」的多重叠加。
- 科技、技术进步，市场更加公平公开透明，这些条件引发的deflation/通缩并不一定是坏事。
Chapter 3 Achieving the Computational Capacity of the Human Brain
- The Sixth Paradigm of Computing Technology: Three-Dimensional Molecular Computing and Emerging Computational Technologies
- The Bridge to 3-D Molecular Computing.
- Nanotubes Are Still the Best Bet.
- Computing with Molecules.
- Self-Assembly.
- Emulating Biology.
- Computing with DNA.
- Computing with Spin.
- Computing with Light.
- Quantum Computing.
- The Computational Capacity of the Human Brain
- Accelerating the Availability of Human-Level Personal Computing.
- Human Memory Capacity.
- The Limits of Computation
- Reversible Computing.
- How Smart Is a Rock?
- The Limits of Nanocomputing.
- Setting a Date for the Singularity.
- Memory and Computational Efficiency: A Rock Versus a Human Brain.
- Going Beyond the Ultimate: Pico- and Femtotechnology and Bending the Speed of Light.
- Going Back in Time.
笔记：
- 作者简略介绍了计算机技术的sixth paradigm（我们现在是fifth paradigm），6th涉及到诸多前沿科技。一旦这种底层的计算机技术借助前沿科技产生质的突破，计算机的性能亦会大幅提高。
- 人脑其实也是一种机器，有其计算能力的极限、存储容量的极限。计算机计算性能达到人脑完全可能。
- 关于计算机的发展局限，作者是很乐观的。总结下来基本就是局限是暂时的，方法是可见的，打破局限只是时间上的问题。
TBC...
