This man is holding a piece of fruit in his hand.这个人手里拿着一些水果。
The piece of fruit is either an orange or an apple.这些水果不是桔子就是苹果。
We can’t see which it is because we can’t see inside the box.我们看不见哪个是因为我们看不见盒子里面。
The probability that it is an orange is equal to the probability that it is an apple.它是橘子的概率等于它是苹果的概率。
It may be an apple, and it may be an orange.它可能是一个苹果，也可能是一个橘子。
It’s got to be one or the other.两者必有其一。
It can’t be anything else.不可能是别的什么。
Now let’s look at it from the man’s point of view.现在让我们从男人的角度来看。
From his point of view, the probabilities are different.在他看来，可能性是不同的。
From his point of view, the probability that he has an orange is 100% or 0%.从他的角度看，他有一个橙子的概率是100%或者0%。
That’s because he knows what he has.那是因为他知道自己拥有什么。
For him there is no uncertainty.对他来说没有不确定性。
If he has an orange, the probability is 100%.如果他有一个橘子，概率是100%。
If he doesn’t have an orange, the probability is 0%.如果没有橙子，概率是0%。
He either has it or he doesn’t.他要么有，要么没有。
From our point of view, the probability that he has an orange is 50%.从我们的观点来看，他有一个橘子的概率是50%。
From his point of view, the probability that he has an orange is 100% or 0%.从他的观点来看，他有一个橙子的概率是100%或0%。
So the probability depends on your point of view.所以概率取决于你的观点。
