审题
一、名词解释
-
fragile states
-> the government cannot provide the essentials to its people, in sovereign ways.
二、背景
- Climate Change -> destabilized governments -> fragile states
- e.g. increased droughts, shrinking glaciers, changing
animal and plant ranges, and sea level rise
- e.g. increased droughts, shrinking glaciers, changing
- fragile states 的影响
- 使国民在面对一些气候灾害时更脆弱,
e.g. natural disasters, decreasing arable land, unpredictable weather, and
increasing temperatures - 一些developing states会恶化
e.g. Non-sustainable environmental practices, migration, and resource
shortages
- 使国民在面对一些气候灾害时更脆弱,
- 具体国家案例
-> Syria,Yemen- Environmental stress + latent ethnic +political divisions => violent conflict
- drought + weak governance + social fragmentation => violent conflict
三、任务
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TASK1: MODEL
要求如下：- 目标：determines country's fragility & impact of climate change
- 结果：
(1) 结论：state -> fragile? vulnerable? stable?
(2) 分析： how climate change increases fragility? (in/directly)
-
TASK2: CASE ANALYSIS(1)
从前十中选一个 use your model!
要求如下：- how climate change -> increased fragility?
- Use your model to show in what way(s) the state may be less fragile
without these effects.
有什么方式可以让这个国家免除这些这些影响来让the state less fragile
-
TASK3: CASE ANALYSIS(2)
从非前十中选一个use your model!- in what way? when?
climate change -> push -> more fragile ; Identify definitive indicators - how? to define a tipping point, and predict when
- in what way? when?
-
TASK4:INTERCENTION
use your model!-
interventions
-> mitigate the risk of climate change
-> prevent from fragile state - Explain the effect of intervention.
Predict the cost
-
interventions
-
TASK5: MODEL MODIFY
出发点：- smaller "states" / larger "states"?
参考机构及资源
- The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
- Fragile State Index
- The World Bank
