THE GREATEST WHIPSAWEVER

                          最大的赌约

In August1982, Mexicodefaultedon its debt. By then, it was clear to most everyone that a number of othercountries were about to follow. This was a huge deal, because U.S. banks hadlent about 250 percent of theircapitalto other countries just as at risk as Mexico.Business loanactivity inthe U.S. ground to ahalt.

译文：1982年8月，墨西哥债务违约。那时候，很显然还有一大票国家也会跟随墨西哥的脚步的。这可是大买卖，因为美国银行已经借出了大概250%本金给其他国家就像墨西哥的危机一样。美国的商业贷款基本陷入停顿。

读后感：上世纪70-80年代，墨西哥本来是美洲发展的相当不错的国家，当时和美国不遑多让，为什么就债务危机，违约了哪？后来广泛猜测是美国和欧洲的阴谋，具体不得而知，但墨西哥到现在也没缓过来。

给各位讲个故事：春秋时期，齐国的管仲就玩过这个，用本国的食盐换邻国的产品，而且指定我们只要这个，等三年后，邻国的经济就被齐国给控制了。这时齐国突然宣布不换了，而且切断食盐供应，邻国直接经济崩溃。

美国现在玩的溜得很，说全球产业分工，中国在这个布局中就是低端加工，出卖劳动力的角色。而高端、高利润的都被欧美日占了，很害怕中国起来掀了他们的摊子，如果全球产业重新布局，那就要了美欧日的命了。

ground to ahalt.==陷入停顿；

Business loan==商业贷款。

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Because Iwas one of the few people who had seen these things coming, I started to get alot of attention. Congress was holding hearings on the crisis and invited me totestify; inNovember I was the featured guest onWall $treet Week with

Louis Rukeyser, the must-watch show for anyone in the markets. In bothappearances, I confidently declared that we were headed for depression andexplained why.

译文：因为我是少数看过这样的事情发生过的人，我开始倾注大量注意力。国会举行听证会，并请我去听证；11月我作为华尔街的主要客人和路易斯陆凯泽—市场必看的节目负责人。从两个现象我非常自信的宣布我们正面临大萧条，并解释为什么这样？

读后感：

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AfterMexico’s default, the Fed responded to the economic collapse and debt defaultsby making money more readily available. This caused the stock market to jump bya record amount. While that surprised me, Iinterpretedit as a knee-jerk reaction to theFed’s move. After all, in 1929 a 15 percent rally was followed by the greatestcrash of all time. In October, I laid out myprognosisin a memo. As I saw it, there was a 75percent chance the Fed’s efforts would fall short and the economy would moveinto failure; a 20 percent chance it would initially succeed atstimulatingthe economybut still ultimately fail; and a 5 percent chance it would provide enoughstimulus to save the economy but triggerhyperinflation. To hedge against the worst possibilities,I bought gold and T-bill futures as a spread againsteurodollars, which was a limited-risk wayof betting on credit problems increasing.

译文：墨西哥政府违约后，联邦政府应对经济崩溃和债务违约的反应是想当然印发更多的钞票，造成股市下降了一个记录值，然而让我吃惊的是，我推断出这是联邦政府的下意识的反应，毕竟1929年史无前例的经济崩溃时联邦政府也才采取了15%的超发货币。10月的时候我把预测写在一份备忘录上，就像我说的那样，联邦政府的努力有75%的机会会在短期内落空，经济依旧会失败；20%的机会会刺激经济但是依旧会衰弱下去；有5%的机会能提供足够的刺激以拯救经济，但会触发超级泡沫（膨胀）。为了对冲最坏的可能性，我买了黄金和短期债务证券—这是一种应对增加中的信贷问题的有限风险方法。

读后感：在作者看来联邦政府的救市政策是非常愚蠢的，几乎没有机会能取得胜利。作者还是用了比较委婉的说法。但是为什么当时买黄金和短期国债来避险哪？黄金、黄金出现了很多次了，看来黄金价格还要涨啊。国内的黄金也值得投资，但是注意别买了哪些不值得投资的黄金首饰、工艺品什么的。要买去银行买。其他还有什么办法哪？

Memo==备忘录；

Stimulating=刺激

Trigger==触发

Hyperinflation==超级通胀

T-bill=美国政府发行的短期债务证券

limited-risk==有限风险

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I was deadwrong. After a delay, the economy responded to the Fed’s efforts,reboundingin anoninflationary way. In other words, inflation fell while growth accelerated.The stock market began a big bull run, and over the next eighteen years the U.S. economy enjoyed thegreatest noninflationary growth period in its history.

译文：我彻底错了。经过一段时间延迟，对于联邦政府的努力，经济开始以一种非通胀的方式复兴了，通胀衰减而增速加速了。故事开始了一轮大牛市，一直到接下来的18年间，美国经济都在享受着这股历史上最大的非通胀的增速时期的福利。

读后感：天哪！雷达利奥错了，而且离谱。这是何解那？难道是国运吗？里根、克林顿政府都赶上好时候了。当然他们本人和政府的应对也不错。作者当时还是年轻啊。

bull run==牛市，股市活跃期。

Noninflationary==非通胀性的

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Howwas that possible?

Eventually,I figured it out. As moneypouredout of these borrower countries and into the U.S., it changed everything. Itdrove the dollar up, which produced deflationary pressures in the U.S., whichallowed the Fed to ease interest rates without raising inflation. Thisfueleda boom. The bankswere protected both because the Federal Reserveloaned them cash and the creditors’ committees andinternational financial restructuring organizations such as the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank for InternationalSettlementsarranged things so that thedebtor nations could pay their debt service from new loans. That way everyonecouldpretendeverything was fine and write down those loans over many years.

译文：为什么，怎么可能？最终我明白了。当热钱退出这些借钱的国家，并进入美国，推高了美元并改变了所有事情。制造了通胀减缩压力，允许联邦政府放松利率而不会引起通胀。相当于添加了燃料带旺了市场。银行被美联储和债权委员会双重保护，国际金融改革机构如国际货币基金组织（imf）和国家清算银行设计了一套制度，债务国家使用新的贷款用于偿还他们的债务义务。每个人都能假装所有事情都处于良好状态，并能签下多年的贷款合约。

读后感：imf和国际清算组织用较低的贷款利率让发展中国家用长期贷款，比如30-50年的贷款来偿还发达国家的贷款。这一套有没有用那？我国也通过这个贷了很多，并在改开早期起到了很大的作用。但是其他国家并不具备中国的偿还能力，很多国家连贷款利息都换不了，比如希腊，比如现在的土耳其，接下来会有很多欧洲国家，比如意大利。

这里面imf和美联储扮演了什么角色？ 请看 《货币战争》。

Settlements==清算。

the Federal Reserve=美联储。

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Myexperience over this period was like a series of blows to the head with abaseball bat. Being so wrong—and especially so publicly wrong—was incrediblyhumblingand cost me justabout everything I had built at Bridgewater. I saw that I had been anarrogantjerk who wastotally confident in a totally incorrect view.

译文：这段时期我的经历就好像被棒球棍不停的打击我的脑袋。错的太离谱了-特别还是公知的错误—就不可避免的贬低了自己，并耗尽了我在桥水基金做的所由事情取得的成绩。我已经成了一个傲慢无知的混蛋，对完全错误的观点还在盲目自信。

读后感：作者当时才30多岁，此前的一帆风顺让作者很自信，这次打击不算太糟糕，犯错也要趁早，这样还有机会恢复。

arrogant jerk==傲慢无知的混蛋。

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So there Iwas after eight years in business, with nothing to show for it. Though I’d beenright much more than I’d been wrong, I was all the way back tosquareone.

At onepoint, I’d lost so much money I couldn’t afford to pay the people who workedwith me. One by one, I had to let them go. We went down to two employees—Colmanand me. Then Colman had to go. With tears from all, his family packed up andreturned to Oklahoma. Bridgewater was now down to just one employee: me.

译文：我已经从事了8年的金融业务，然并卵，尽管我对的时候远大于犯错的时候，我千方百计退回到古板保守的自己。那个时候我已经损失了太多钱，我付不起工作伙伴的薪水。一个接一个的，我不得不让他们离开公司。只剩下两个雇员-就是科尔曼和我。接着科尔曼也不得不离开。所有人都含着眼泪，他和他的家人重新收拾并返回俄克拉荷马州。桥水基金只剩下一个雇员：那就是我。

读后感：桥水为什么会在这次事件中濒临破产？公司关门？作者投资了黄金和短期国债，应该不至于赔钱，一定是桥水的业务在作者的错误观点的影响下，做出了很多错误决策，比如抛售股票，期货等，损失惨重啊。作者也因为损失惨重变的保守。

这和中国的情况不同：目前国内的情况是外资流出严重，国内融资成本居高，地方债务巨大，经济运行成本加剧。怎么办？

Square==古板守旧。

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Losingpeople I cared so much about and very nearly losing my dream of working formyself wasdevastating.To make ends meet, I even had to borrow $4,000 from my dad until we could sellour second car. I had come to a fork in the road: Should I put on a tie andtake a job on Wall Street? That was not the life I wanted. On the other hand, Ihad a wife and two young children to support. I realized I was facing one oflife’s big turning points and my choices would have big implications for me andfor my family’s future.

译文：关心的人离开、近乎丢弃梦想的工作让我接近被毁灭。为了收支平衡，我在卖了第二辆车后，不得不向父亲借了4000美金。我不得不面临抉择：是去打上领带去华尔街找份工作呐？那不是我想要的生活。另一方面，我有老婆和两个小孩要养。我意识到自己面临人生最大的转折点，我的选择对我和我的家庭未来都将产生重大影响。

读后感：这是作者的第一次大的挫折。我们接下来看看作者是如何应对的吧。

make ends meet==量入为出，收支平衡。

a fork in the road==三岔路口，面临抉择。

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我是007李小军，以上是我自己的翻译，也许不会太准确，我能保证也不会偏离作者的意思太远，不至于误导各位，谢谢观看。

                                            007-4478李小军

                                            2018-6-16

                                            觉得好，就点赞，就转发， 谢了！