2.2 价值投资与趋势投资

（一）什么是趋势？

Trends are the future that is happening. Because only those changes that are taking place and will lead to the future will eventually bring about structural changes in the world.

Sun Zhengyi said: "twenty years ago, the Internet was the trend, because at that point in time, the Internet was the future of the world; Now the trend is artificial intelligence, because artificial intelligence is the future. "

Blockchain is the trend. Because no matter how good the algorithm is, it also needs data feeding. Because we have proved that the Internet makes the rapid flow of information in a zero cost way, which brings amazing changes to the world; Similarly, in the future, assets can flow as fast as information at zero cost, which will also bring amazing changes to the world.

How to judge the trend, only the most fundamental one: standing in the future, thinking hard.

（二）为什么说趋势投资优于价值投资？

Because in the long-term perspective, trend investment is better than value investment.

Specifically speaking,

1）Benjamin Graham's theory of value investment is obviously correct. However, few people notice that there is a secret limitation in this theory of value investment: according to his theory, you must always pay attention to and only pay attention to the current price; In addition, there is another more secret factor behind this secret limitation: we can judge whether the current price is lower than the value, but it is difficult to judge the future price, especially after at least two major cycles.

2）Xiaolai said that it is almost impossible to pay close attention to all the details of the present and seriously think about everything in the far future. This is also the fundamental reason why there are few truly successful value investors. Xiaolai teacher, here is a very interesting analogy: when a person wears a watch, even if it is fast or slow for a few minutes, he can probably know the time. However, if he wears two watches at the same time, he must be stupid.

3）According to the theory of value investment, when do investors need to sell the investment target whose current price is far lower than the actual value? As long as its actual price is far more than you think it's worth - ten days later, or ten years later? It's all the same - you should sell it right away.

Warren Buffett, the world's favorite stock god, has made this mistake twice in his treatment of Disney stock, which shows that the so-called value investment strategy of "having to always focus on short-term prices" is often not better than the long-term trend investment strategy when we look back after two major cycles.

4）Fixed investment strategy users pay more attention to trends. They are also value investors, but the difference between them is that their starting point is only based on the long-term perspective. Follow this reasoning: if the trend is right, then the difference between immediate value and price is not as important as people think.

Since the fixed bid strategists pay more attention to the long-term trend and only take the long-term as the starting point, the selection of fixed bid can only adopt a different method. Compared with other investors, they have one more screening criterion: long-term sustainable growth.

Then, under the extra screening criteria, the fixed investment strategists can only choose the target of long-term sustainable growth (of course, the greater the growth, the faster the better).

（三）你现在能看到什么样的趋势，你如何面对这个趋势？

According to Taleb, if something has existed for ten years, it is likely to continue to exist for ten years. Because I agree with Li Xiaolai that blockchain will continue to exist and will continue to develop. We have seen the great changes in the world brought by the rapid flow of information in a zero cost way with the development of the Internet; Similarly, in the future, we will verify that the assets tell the flow at zero cost. This trend is certain, but we are not sure about the specific ways and details. What we can do is to seize this trend in asset investment and implement fixed investment strategy. It's the only way we ordinary people can change our destiny.

（四）印象最深刻的一句话：

If the correct trend is chosen, then while the difference between price and value is not unimportant, it’s not as important as people think.