The Economist 精读 [30]

#Eva💭说#

这篇文章的标题体现了作者对比特币的立场态度，把比特币比作情人，言外之意成为不了女主人。纵然今年比特币价格暴涨到飞起，纵然比特币技术与弯路得到了一定的认可，但是，出身不正，不透明，若成为货币储存价值的极不稳定等都是其无法取代货币的原因。如今最明智的做法是观望。虽然比特币投资者现在很开心，但是当他们想要退出时，真正的考验才开始。

#个人总结和理解，欢迎批评指正，欢迎留言讨论#

#有输出才有进步#

Bitcoin

A bit on the side [小编自己的理解：把比特币比作情人（终究不能成为正房太太🙂）]

剑桥辞典解释：

Bitcoin is a speculative[投机的] asset[投机性资产] but not yet a systemic risk[系统风险][比特币是投机性资产，但还是不是系统风险]

[投机，不同于投资，是指货币所有者以其所持有的货币购入非货币资产，然后在未来将购得的非货币资产再次转换为货币资产，以赚取较低的购入价格和较高的出售价格之间的利润，即差价。 投机存在风险，如同赌博，并非增加资产的可靠方法。资料来源：维基百科]

[系统性风险（Systematic risk）又称市场风险或不可分散风险，是影响所有资产的、不能通过资产组合而消除的风险。这部分风险是由那些影响整个市场的风险所引起的，例如：战争、政权更迭、自然灾害、经济周期、通货膨胀、能源危机和宏观政策调整。无论怎样分散投资，也不可能消除系统性风险。避免集中投资于单一市场可减少系统性风险。单项资产、证券资产组合或不同公司受系统性风险影响不一样，系统性风险的大小通常用beta系数（β\beta  系数）来衡量。 资料来源：维基百科]

Financial markets rarely miss opportunities to make money[金融市场几乎不会错过挣钱的机会]. That is as true of cryptocurrencies[加密电子货币，如比特币] as anything else[加密电子货币和其他任何挣钱的机会一样，都不会被错过]. Trading in bitcoin futures[期货，详细解释见下文] began on the Chicago Board Options Exchange this week[比特币期货交易于这周在芝加哥期权交易市场启动]; CME [芝加哥商业交易所]Group will launch its own futures on December 18th[CME会在12月18日推出他们自己的期货]. That has given a further boost to the digital currency’s price[这对于电子货币的价格是进一步的推动], which is up by 1,550% this year[今年增长了1550个百分点]. Such phenomenal [杰出的] returns[惊人的回报] are drawing in waves of speculative[投机的] money[这样惊人的回报吸引了一波又一波的投机货币] But is there a fundamental case to invest in bitcoin[但是投资比特币有基本要求么?]

[期货合约（英语：Futures contract），简称期货（英语：Futures），是一种跨越时间的交易方式。买卖双方透过签订合约，同意按指定的时间、价格与其他交易条件，交收指定数量的现货。. 资料来源：维基百科]

The usual tools of finance are no guide[通常的金融工具不能作为比特币交易的指导]. An equity is a claim on the assets and the profits of a firm[所有者权益是一个公司对其资产和盈利的所有权]; a bond entitles[使….有权利] the investor to a series of interest payments and repayment on maturity[债券可以让投资者有权利支付利息并且到期偿还本金[债券，是发行者为筹集资金发行的、在约定时间支付一定比例的利息，并在到期时偿还本金的一种有价证券。]]. Bitcoin brings no cashflows to the owner[比特币不会为所有者带来现金流]; the only return will come via a rise in price[唯一的回报来自比特币价格的上涨]. When there is no obvious way of valuing an asset[当没有一种明显的方式为一种资产估值时], it is hard to say that one target price is less likely than another[就很难说哪一个目标价格实现的可能性更大]. Bitcoin could be worth $10 or $100,000[比特币可能价值10美刀，也可能价值10万美刀].

[A price target is the projected price level of a financial security stated by an investment analyst or advisor. It represents a security's price that, if achieved, results in a trader recognizing the best possible outcome for his investment. This is the price at which the trader or investor wants to exit his existing position so he can realize the most reward. . 资料来源：Investopedia.com]

Instead, investors must weigh[权衡] the scenarios that enthusiasts[热衷者] posit[设想][投资者必须权衡比特币爱好者设想的各种情形]: what if, say, every pension fund invested 1% of its portfolio in the cryptocurrency[比如说如果用每笔退休基金的1%投资电子加密货币]? One argument made by bitcoinnoisseurs[比特币行家] is that it is a type of “digital gold”[比特币行家的一种说法是它是一种电子黄金]. Stores of value [价值储存，货币的功能之一，A store of value is the function of an asset that can be saved, retrieved and exchanged at a later time, and be predictably useful when retrieved. More generally, a store of value is anything that retains purchasing power into the future.] are supposed to keep their value[价值储存应该能让货币保值]; bitcoin, by contrast, is extremely volatile[不稳定的][相比之下，比特币则极为不稳定]. Its code ensures that no more than 21m coins can ever be created[其代码确保不会产生超过2100百万比特币]; that sets bitcoin apart from fiat money[法定货币][这使比特币不能算作法定货币], which central banks can create at will[随心所欲][法定货币中央银行想发多少就发行多少]. Yet being limited in supply is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for having value[虽然限制供给数量是有价值的必要条件，但不是充分条件][necessary condition 必要条件，sufficient condition 充分条件]; signed photographs of Economist journalists are rare but, sadly, of negligible worth[经济学人的签约摄影师很少，但他们的价值也有限(此处举例解释限制比特币的数量与比特币价值高的必要不充分条件，数量少不意味着价值高)]. Nor is supply really limited[供给也不是真正有限]. Plenty of other cryptocurrencies exist[还有很多其他加密电子货币的存在].

Might bitcoin replace ordinary currencies in everyday transactions[比特币可能取代日常交易的普通货币吗]? Not soon[不会这么快]. Who wants to part with[（不情愿的）放弃] (or accept in exchange) a currency that can rise or fall by 20% in an hour[谁会舍不得放弃（或接受交换）一小时可能增值或贬值20%的货币]? And true currencies are used to denominate liabilities as well as assets[真正的货币既可以表示是负债也是资产]; imagine the ruin faced by those who had taken out a bitcoin mortgage or business loan earlier this year[想想一下那些今年早些时候用比特币做房屋贷款或商业贷款的人，他们的脸色有多难看].

Bitcoin might triumph[胜利] if currencies like the dollar and the euro succumb[失败] to hyperinflation[恶性通货膨胀][如果美元和欧元最终败于恶性通货膨胀，比特币有可能获胜][ 在经济学上，恶性通货膨胀是一种不能控制的通货膨胀，在物价很快地上涨的情况下，就使货币失去价值], but there is no sign of that[但是，并没有发生这样的事的迹象]. A more likely scenario is that the technology that underpins[支撑] bitcoin—a distributed ledger[分布式总账] called the blockchain[区链块]—proves so useful that it becomes widely adopted[最有可能的情形时，支持比特币的技术-叫做区链快的分布式总账技术，被证明极为有效而被广泛使用]. If so, bitcoin would become a vehicle for other services[如果是这样的话，比特币将成为一种提供其他服务的工具], and people would need to own some, or a fraction of one, to use them[人们需要拥有一些这样的工具，哪怕是一点点，去使用服务]. But the original appeal of bitcoin was to the libertarian[（反对政府控制的）自由主义者] fringe[外围，边缘][但是，比特币的最初吸引力是那些外围自由主义者] and those who wanted to trade illegal commodities, like drugs, out of sight of the authorities[和那些想要背着政府做非法商品交易的人]. Bitcoin’s anonymity[匿名] and opacity[不透明] do not much appeal to big banks (or to their regulators)[比特币匿名和不透明对大型银行或是银行监管者没有足够的吸引力]. They are developing their own block chains[银行也正在发展自己的区块链技术].

[知识补充：通常，首字大写的“Bitcoin”是指其所使用的比特币技术与网络，而首字小写的“bitcoin”才是指货币本身。比特币也是区块链支付系统和虚拟计价工具，由于其采用密码技术来控制货币的生产和转移，而没有中央的发行机构，无法任意增发，交易在全球网络中运行，有特殊的隐秘性，加上不必经过第三方金融机构，因此得到越来越广泛的应用，也成了非法交易的媒介。用户利用个人电脑和智能手机中的加密钱包软件，无需任何银行、信用卡、在线支付公司等中介机构，可随时随地在网络上直接交换物品、服务.根据剑桥大学2017年的研究，全球有多达580万个加密钱包活跃用户，其中大多数使用比特币.同时，有观点认为，比特币技术得到了广泛的认可和使用，使人类迎来了区块链时代. 资料来源：维基百科]

Hysteria[歇斯底里] on all fronts

If the bitcoin boom looks like a mania[狂热], calls for it to be banned are also over the top[太过头][如果比特币发展蒸蒸日上，禁止使用比特币的要求就太过头了]. Regulators are right to watch “initial coin offerings”[监管者监管“首次代币发行”的做法是是正确的]—attempts by companies to raise money by issuing digital tokens of their own[“首次代币发行”是企业通过发行他们自己的数字密钥筹得资金].

[首次代币发行（英语：Initial Coin Offering，简称ICO）也称首次代币发售、区块链众筹，是用区块链把使用权和加密货币合二为一，来为开发、维护、交换相关产品或者服务的项目进行融资的方式。从证券界的IPO（Initial Public Offering），即首次公开募股一词演变而来。与以盈利为目的、需要证券监管机构审批的企业IPO不同，企业行为有国界、有分红、有股权，能用现金流、资产实力和盈利模式评估。然而，在区块链上发售ICO是社区行为，很难用现金流、资产实力和盈利模式评估，无需证券监管机构审批，其目的是建立一个无需法制、高效便捷、轻所有权、重使用权的共识共享社区。资料来源：维基百科]

They are right, too, to warn retail investors about the dangers of a thinly[稀少的] traded market for an asset with no inherent value[内在价值] and scant[少量的] recourse if things go wrong[监管警告零售业投资者这个交易稀少市场的危险性，如果事情发展不对头，这里没有内在价值的资产并且资源不足，监管者这么做也是正确的]. But it is hard to see how the currency is a source of systemic risk[但是很难看清这样的货币是怎样成为系统风险的来源]; by one measure, the value of bitcoin is less than half that of Apple’s market capitalization[一种衡量的方法是，比特币的价值少于苹果市场资本的一半]. Real economic damage occurs when a plunge[暴跌] in asset prices is combined with the wide-spread use of money that has been borrowed, particularly by banks[真正的经济损失发生在资产价值的暴跌，同时伴随着借贷，尤其是银行借贷的广泛使用]. These elements are not yet present[这些因素还没有呈现出来].

For those who believe that cryptocurrencies could be the next big thing, buying bitcoin is like an option contract[期权合同]: it might just pay off[取得好结果][对于那些相信加密电子货币将是下一个大事件的人来说，买比特币就像一个期权，他们可能刚刚取得了好结果]. For everyone else, the wise course is to watch[至于剩下的人，明智的做法是观望]. Investors have had a lot of fun piling[挤] into bitcoin[投资者们挤进比特币市场很开心]; the real test will come when they suddenly need to get out again[当他们需要突然出来的时候，真正的考验才开始].

[期权又称为选择权（英语：Option），有时也看作是期货和选择权的合称。选择权是一种通常可交易的衍生金融工具，根据某项资产（如股权、股票指数或期货）在未来某一时间段的价格，确定期权交易中买家的权利和卖家的义务。]

2017/12/19    670 words

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我是Eva💭

一个认真学英语的美少女😘