Scottish Nationalists succeed where Leavers fail 苏格兰人民抓住了脱欧契机

As a schoolboy in Edinburgh, I was taught that, long before the union with England, Scotland had been a cosmopolitan country. 在爱丁堡求学期间,我了解到苏格兰在加入英格兰联盟以前很长时间一直都是四海一家的国家。

The ports on the east coast showed the influence of trade with the Netherlands and the Hanseatic League. 它的东海岸展现了与荷兰的贸易和受到汉萨同盟影响的独特风貌。

The Scots language demonstrated continental influences. The citizens of Edinburgh would shout “gardyloo”, supposedly from the French “gare del'eau”, before throwing their slops into the streets from the windows of the tall tenements of Edinburgh's Old Town. 苏格兰语言也受到欧洲大陆影响。在爱丁堡一些古旧的乡镇上,市民从高楼的窗口泼水的时候通常会喊一句: gardyloo~泼水啦!这句话很可能来自法语的"gare del'eau"。

Even then, this example of early Scots sophistication did not convince. 话虽如此,但是这不足以证明苏格兰早期市民的构成。

And the claim that their vote to stay in the EU — all districts of Scotland voted Remain in the referendum, and 62 per cent of the nation's voters as a whole voted to stay in the EU — is the product of a broad-minded outlook not seen south of the border also misses a crucial point. 苏格兰为反对脱欧发出的呐喊源于一种的粗犷的思维方式,而非因为他们细心地抓住了英格兰脱欧把戏的漏洞。在这里,曾经所有地区投票给"留在欧洲",62%的市民拉响了反对脱欧的集结号。

The reality is that the discontent with established politics that erupted in the Leave vote elsewhere in the country has found expression in other ways. 但是结果说明,在其他地区,由于对现有政策不满而兴起的脱欧阵营的呼声无孔不入。

As one student of Scottish politics, explaining the UK Independence party's lack of traction north of the border, put it to me two years ago: “People in Scotland who are disgruntled and suspicious of foreigners [the English] already have a party they can vote for.” 英国独立派缺乏牵引北方地区的动力,正如两年前一个研究苏格兰政治的学生所说 : 苏格兰人民对英国人(视之为外国人)所持悻悻然和怀疑的态度让他们自然而然不肯投将手中的票投给脱欧派。

The fracturing of the opposition Labour party's traditional support in depressed areas of the north of England, which was decisive in securing an Out vote, paralleled the collapse of Labour's vote in the west of Scotland in favour of the Scottish National party in the general election of 2015. 英国北方情绪忧郁的人们作为工党对立一方的传统支持力量,人少势微,却执着于寻求脱欧的保障,这跟2015年工党试图在苏格兰西部扶植苏格兰民族党所做的努力功亏一篑有异曲同工之妙。

The great achievement of the SNP, now in government in Holyrood and with MPs in Westminster, has been to be a party of protest and a party of government at the same time. This is an achievement Brexiters will find hard to emulate. 苏格兰国民党的伟大成就,如今在荷里路德宫的政府和威斯敏斯特的MPs, 不仅是反对脱欧的政党,而且是政府的政党。对于脱欧派来说这是望尘莫及的。

While the Leave campaign and the SNP are disparate coalitions brought together by a common hostility, the SNP has a clearer and more positive vision of the future, and evidence of administrative competence has been absent on the Brexit side. 虽然苏格兰国民党与脱欧阵营分歧很大,只是为了对付共同的敌人才走到一起,然而前者对未来的规划却更加清晰茄更具有可行性,同时脱欧派的行政能力也略逊一筹。

A remarkable outcome of the Remain campaign was that the two most impressive political performers were women from Scotland: Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP first minister, and Ruth Davidson, leader of the opposition Scottish Conservatives. English politics is in chaos; Scottish politics is not。反对脱欧的活动中引人注目的一项成就,是两位最出色的活动家都是来自苏格兰的女性,苏格兰国民党首任总理尼古拉•斯塔金恩和反苏格兰保守党领袖露丝•大威徳森。英国政局乱哄哄,苏格兰却相反。

But support in Scotland for the SNP, in large part a response to Labour's failure, should not necessarily be equated with support for independence. 苏格兰对SNP的支持主要是因为工党的失败,而非出于追求独立。

The SNP cannot call a fresh referendum unless it is highly confident of winning it.苏格兰国民党在没有绝对把握的情况下不能召集新一轮投票。

A second No vote, even if close, would put an end to dreams of independence for a generation and perhaps forever, as in Quebec. 如果投票结果事与愿违,即使双方票数相差不大,也可能终结一代人独立的梦想,甚至就像加拿大魁北克一样闹成覆水难收的结局。

And economic prospects for Scotland are less attractive with oil below $50 per barrel than when prices were twice that level. 由于现在油价低于每桶50美金, 相比曾经100美元一桶的时代,就算打出让苏格兰经济崛起的口号也无济于事。

On the other hand, one factor has changed decisively. If Scotland had voted for separation in 2014 the path to EU membership would have been slow. 另一方面,有一个因素已不可逆转。假如2014年苏格兰就举行独立投票,通向欧盟成员国的道路还有可能变缓。

While the outcome would have been inevitable, countries with their own separatist movements, notably Spain but also perhaps Belgium and Italy, would probably have been obstructive. 然而其结果是不可避免的,那些存在分裂主意的国家,比如较明显的西班牙,可能还包括比利时和意大利,可能成为障碍。

Now, Scottish accession would be greeted with open arms. And while it probably does not make sense for an independent Scotland to join the eurozone, dallying with the prospect is a tease that might assist in negotiations with both the EU and the rest of the UK. 现在,苏格兰单独加入欧盟将受到热烈欢迎。但是由于苏格兰不可能作为独立的国家加入欧盟,延迟该议程可能其与欧盟和与苏格兰以外的其他英国地区的谈判有所帮助

After the Scots independence referendum failed, narrowly, in 2014, I judged that independence was the likely outcome but probably not in my lifetime. 2014年,苏格兰独立投票失败后,我判断,苏格兰独立在我有生之年不太可能实现。

It now seems likely that I will see it. Whether it is desirable is another matter altogether. As with Brexit itself, the economic impact of the change is greatly exaggerated by both sides and the costs of transition large. 不管是不是由于我一厢情愿的想法,现在看来我可能判断错了。双方对于脱欧本身在经济方面造成的影响和耗费的成本夸大其词了

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