序言
查理·芒格是世界上最成功和最受瞩目的投资者之一。众所周知，他是沃伦·巴菲特在伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司（简称伯克希尔）坦率敢言的合作伙伴，伯克希尔是一家无比成功的公司。“查理加我，1加1确实大于2。”巴菲特以此对芒格做出的贡献表示感谢。作为投资者，芒格在伯克希尔之外也有投资，其取得的成功也给人留下了深刻的印象。芒格最令人感兴趣的地方并非他在投资上取得的成功，而是他思考和控制自己情绪的方法。
芒格一直追求独立思考，并总能用言简意赅的几句话切中问题的要害，这也使他成为业界传奇。关于投资，有一条重要的真理，那就是人们很少独立做决定。这意味着，能够拥有以下特质的人具有做投资者的优势：独立思考，能控制自己的情绪，能消除心理误差。巴菲特曾经用下面这个故事说明芒格对独立思考的不懈追求：
1985年，一家大型投资银行有意出售斯科特·费茨公司（Scott Fetzer），尽管广散英雄帖，却无人问津。在阅读了有关它未能售出的报道之后，我给斯科特·费茨公司当时和现在的首席执行官拉尔夫·舒伊（Ralph Schey）写了一封信，表示有兴趣收购这家企业。我之前从没见过拉尔夫，但不到一周的时间，我们就达成了交易。遗憾的是，尽管投资银行与能否找到买主没有任何关系，但根据委托书，一旦企业出售，斯科特·费茨公司就要付给投行250万美元的佣金。我猜测，一定是负责此项交易的投行经理感觉他应该为收到这笔酬金做点儿什么，因此，他礼貌地表示要送我们一介绍斯科特·费茨公司的书，这是他所在的公司早就编写好的。查理以其一贯的机智回应道：我给你250万美元，“不”要读它。
——沃伦·巴菲特，致股东的信，1999年
促使我写这本书的很大一部分原因就在于此类故事和媒体对芒格在各种环境下所发表言论的生动报道。可以说，芒格能引起人们如此之大的兴趣，与他的无拘无束有着不小的关系。他想到什么就会说什么，很少顾及社会风俗，也不考虑应否圆滑。这种坦率难能可贵，因为有时我们需要听到有人说出“皇帝没穿衣服”这种话。作为一个选股者，他有着出色的业绩记录，同时积累了大量的财富，但芒格说过：在生活中，一般不要效仿他。他认为自己的生活太过致力于提升自己的心智，如果有人盲目地以他为榜样，他的独特个性（包括但不限于“傲慢无礼”）会让他们不受欢迎。
芒格承认自己就像一根“避雷针”，会在某些问题上招致批评。芒格曾经说过，“我会作为一头聪明的蠢驴而被人铭记”，而他的投资合伙人沃伦·巴菲特留给人的印象则是“导师”。有时人们告诉我说他们不理解查理·芒格的大惊小怪。遗憾的是，他们未能领会关键的一点：就像没有人可以成为第二个沃伦·巴菲特一样，也不会有人成为第二个查理·芒格。我们不必像对待英雄那样对待任何人，而是要考虑芒格是否像他的偶像本杰明·富兰克林那样拥有我们想要效仿的素质、特质、投资体系或生活方式，即使只有部分值得借鉴。同样的方法也可以解释芒格为什么会阅读数百部人物传记。从他人的成败中吸取经验教训是最快的学习方式之一，可以让自己变得更加聪明，却不必忍受很大的痛苦。
尽管出言不逊，芒格却用其让人无法效仿的方式变成了一位导师。他曾说过：
一个人所能做的最好的事情就是帮助另一个人知道更多。
——查理·芒格，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司年会，2010年
“我会观察什么有效和什么没效，并分析其原因。”这句话看似简单，却道出了很多芒格让人产生兴趣的原因。生活对待芒格就像对待其他人一样，不同的是，他会深入思考为什么有些事情会发生，并想方设法依据经验认清本质。
跟沃伦·巴菲特一样，芒格出生于内布拉斯加州的奥马哈市，并在那里长大。他在密歇根大学研读数学，并打算在那里读完大学，获得学位，但这条路因第二次世界大战的爆发而被打断。战争期间，他担任美军的气象学家，并在加州理工学院接受训练。战争结束后，虽然没有本科学历，但他仍然在哈佛大学法学院谋得了一个学习的机会。在加州理工学院受训期间，他喜欢上了加利福尼亚州，从法学院毕业之后，他便与几位合伙人组建了一家律师事务所，后来，这家律师事务所成为全美最有声望的律师事务所之一。尽管法律方面的事业取得了成功，但在沃伦·巴菲特的劝说下，芒格还是很快就离开了律师行业，全职从事投资。事实上，他直到搬到加利福尼亚州的帕萨迪纳居住后才与巴菲特相识。1962—1975年，芒格为一些投资者管理一家合伙企业，年投资回报率接近20%，而同时期道琼斯工业平均指数的回报率还不到5%。芒格不收藏法拉利跑车，也没购买过豪宅。尽管是一位亿万富翁，但在思想或投资之外的很多生活领域，芒格就是一位普通人。
虽然芒格多次发表演讲，写过很多文章，并在韦斯科金融公司（WescoFinancial）和伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的年会上款待过无数的股东，但他却从来没有用一个所谓“统一的理论”来表达过自己的观点。这可能是因为芒格堪称“特技”的心智，对于普通人来说，着实难以理解吧。就普通人而言，在头脑中同时处理他说的“多个模型”，而没有一个能理解其观念的框架，的确不是一件容易做到的事情。本书的目的就是教你如何像查理·芒格一样思考。
我是怎样走上对芒格思想的研究之路的呢？萌生写这本书的念头可以追溯到互联网泡沫即将破裂的那段日子。许多关于投资的假设在那一时期受到了质疑。对于任何一个关注这个领域的人来说，互联网泡沫时期创造的财富都是虚幻的。马克·安德森在推特网上说过一番话，很好地表达了这种想法，他说：在这次泡沫中，“人们情不自禁地感到了恐慌，因为他们正在错失机会”。似乎大众犯了群体性的精神癫狂，但多数人心中都打着自己的算盘：“要是真的将会怎样？要是再次升值两倍或三倍又该如何？”对于我这样的人来说，赶上了一个疯狂的时期，不知道市场正在发生什么，急于寻求答案，目光自然就转向了成功且经验丰富的投资者，想要琢磨他们的见解。
1999年夏，为了妥善应对市场上正在发生的事，我租了一艘船，雇了一位船长，请他把我们全家送到华盛顿州的圣胡安岛。那次旅行，我带上了巴菲特曾经写的和别人写巴菲特的所有资料。当我坐在那艘船的甲板上读巴菲特的投资方法时，我发现最能与我产生共鸣的竟然是芒格的理念。那时候，我最希望得到答案的具体问题是：我手中那些价格很高的互联网和电信企业的股票，我应该卖掉多少？当我在甲板上阅读，来回踱步，陷入深思时，我的家人在船上和岛上玩得很开心。一周下来，我什么事也没干，只是专心阅读和思考，因此，我并没有享受到太多旅行的乐趣。然而，在那次旅行渐近尾声时，我已得出结论：应该卖掉刚好一半的互联网和电信股票。如此一来，不管发生什么事，都会让我的遗憾降到最小，对此我十分确定。考虑到随后发生的股市崩盘，它算不上最优决策，但当时我对自己的决定很满意，直到今天依然如此。那次旅行是我深入探究价值投资的起点。
如果普通投资者想要获得超过市场指数的回报，那么，由本杰明·格雷厄姆开发、芒格践行的价值投资体系就是最佳方法。但格雷厄姆的价值投资是一个体系，投资者若照方抓药，仅仅通过遵循一套严格的规则，是不可能找到成功之路的。对于格雷厄姆的价值投资体系、伯克希尔体系或其他价值投资者的体系而言，应用它们是一门艺术，而非科学。价值投资不是一个连点成线的练习。充分理解格雷厄姆的价值投资体系并不涉及错综复杂的学问，但大多数人并不具备跑赢大盘所需的情绪和心理控制力，甚至不想做必要的功课。这就是沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说“投资简单，但不容易”的道理所在。而把巴菲特说的话换成芒格的说法，就是“接受一个简单的理念，并且认真对待它”。
本书的大部分内容是关于我是如何学会更好地辨识情绪和心理失误的根源，以及我从芒格那里学到的如何避免它们的心得体会。在一封电子邮件中，《华尔街日报》专栏作家贾森·茨威格（JasonZweig）向我描述了投资过程中的根本挑战之一：
如果认为成为他那样的人，并且像他那样思考很容易做到的话，那这个世界上就会有不止一个查理·芒格了。把自己变成一个拥有多样心智模式（mentalmodels）的学习机器……是一件非常艰难的事情，如果不具备相应的特质，即使是成功做到的少数人也可能仍旧无法从中受益。这就是巴菲特和芒格为什么会不断地想起格雷厄姆的观点的原因——做一个真正的逆向投资者需要极大的勇气和内心的波澜不惊。巴菲特不断地谈论格雷厄姆提供的“情绪框架”；查理常说，无论多么聪明，大多数投资者还是不会成功，因为他们的“性情不对”。我喜欢用古希腊哲学中“ataraxia”这个词来形容它，意思是“心灵的宁静”，或者说“心平气和”。当苏格拉底接受审判时，当内森·黑尔被吊死时，当巴菲特投资高盛时，当2009年3月查理在最后期限的前一天购买富国银行（WellsFargo）时，你都能看到它。
——贾森·茨威格，给作者的邮件，2014年10月
为了帮助自己更好地理解芒格的投资理念和方法，我创建了一个由三个元素组成的框架：原则、正确的素质和可变因素。这个“三元素框架”只是用于理解芒格投资理念和方法的模型之一，其他理解芒格的方法照样有用。我创建这一框架还有其他的打算，那就是确立一个投资时可用的核查清单。为应对生活中的挑战，芒格也大力提倡核查清单的方法：
通过使用核查清单来解决难题，我对这一方法笃信无疑。你需要了解摆在你面前的所有可能和不可能的答案，否则很容易错过一些重要的事情。
——查理·芒格，韦斯科金融公司年会，2007年
创建核查清单的部分好处在于它有一个写下自己想法的过程。巴菲特曾经强调过设法把自己的想法写下来的重要性，我一直喜欢他的这一解释。在巴菲特看来，如果你不能写下来，说明你还没有想好。
为了尽最大可能兑现这本书的承诺，从格雷厄姆价值投资的基本原理开始讨论非常必要，因为这有助于将本书的发展脉络概述清楚。本杰明·格雷厄姆创建的价值投资四项基本原则如下所述：
1. 将股票看成相应比例的企业所有权。
2. 在价格大幅低于价值时买进，以创建安全边际。
3. 让两极化的“市场先生”成为你的仆人，而非你的主人。
4. 保持理性、客观和冷静。
芒格称格雷厄姆的这四项基本原则“永远不会过时”。不遵循这些原则的投资者就不是格雷厄姆价值投资者。格雷厄姆的价值投资体系就是这么简单。
芒格还认为，某些个人品质的认知和培养是成为格雷厄姆价值投资者的必要条件。在我的框架中，这些品质属于“正确的素质”的那部分内容。芒格认为，能够培养这些特质的投资者就可以自我调适，避免常见的心理和情绪失误，从而成为成功的投资者。从来没有人近乎完美，但我们可以随着时间的推移变得更好。芒格认为，如果我们不能持续不断地改善这些特质，我们就会重犯过去的错误，重复愚蠢的行为。
本书将在最后一部分讨论格雷厄姆价值投资者在确立自己独特投资风格和方法时的选择。换句话说，尽管格雷厄姆的价值投资体系是建立在以上四项基本价值投资原则的基础上，但并非一成不变。在投资体系的运用方面，没有两个格雷厄姆价值投资者是完全一样的。仅举一例说明，巴菲特曾指出，虽然他和芒格“实际上就像连体双胞胎”，但在投资方法上，他们俩还是有所不同。
与投资有关的教与学的机会基本上是无限的。芒格常说，一个成功的投资者从不仅仅满足于做一个“学习的机器”。这种关于学习和再学习的必要性表明，投资者应当不断地阅读和思考。芒格说，成功的投资者无不是热爱阅读的人。他自己的孩子形容他是“一本长了两条腿的书”。阅读和学习需要切实下功夫。有一句禅语可用来说明这一点：“当谈及与价值投资有关的事时，很多人更喜欢咀嚼菜单，而不是真的吃菜。”我学习这些不只是因为投资需要，更是因为喜欢投资，因为它能让我获得一种需要积极思维才能做得好的满足感。你可以学着至少享受这一过程，甚至还有可能爱上学习。
在结束序言之前，我应该就本书做几点说明。它的形式很简单。引用的芒格语录按照逻辑顺序排列，接下来通常是我对它的解释。除非另有说明，引用的都是芒格说过的话。书后还附有一个词汇表，因此，如果读到一个不熟悉的词（例如，净现值），你很方便就能查到它的定义。
INTRODUCTION
CHARLIE MUNGER IS one of the world’s most successful investors and most interesting people. He is best known as the outspoken partner of Warren Buffett at the fabulously successful company known as Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett acknowledged Munger ’s contributions when he pointed out, “One plus one with Charlie and me certainly adds up to more than two.”1 Munger ’s success as an investor in businesses outside of Berkshire is also impressive. What is most interesting about Munger is not his success as an investor but the way he thinks and keeps his emotions under control.
Munger ’s ability to cut to the heart of an issue with a few well-chosen words is legendary, as is his desire to think independently. A fundamentally important truth about investing is that people rarely make decisions independently. This means that people who can think independently, gain control of their emotions, and avoid psychological errors have an advantage as investors. Buffett once illustrated Munger ’s desire to do his own thinking with this story:
In 1985, a major investment banking house undertook to sell Scott Fetzer, offering it widely, but with no success. Upon reading of this strikeout, I wrote Ralph Schey, then and now Scott Fetzer ’s CEO, expressing an interest in buying the business. I had never met Ralph, but within a week we had a deal. Unfortunately, Scott Fetzer ’s letter of engagement with the banking firm provided it a 2.5 million dollar fee upon sale, even if it had nothing to do with finding the buyer. I guess the lead banker felt he should do something for his payment, so he graciously offered us a copy of the book on Scott Fetzer that his firm had prepared. With his customary tact, Charlie responded: I’ll give you 2.5 million “not” to read it.
—WARREN BUFFETT, CHAIRMAN’S LETTER, 1999
Stories like this one, together with colorful reports on what Munger has said in a range of settings, are a big part of what motivated me to write this book. Munger is such an interesting person, in no small part because he is, in a word, unrestrained. He says exactly what is on his mind, with little consideration given to tact and social conventions. This candor is valuable because sometimes we need to hear that the emperor is not wearing clothes. Munger has said that, although he has accumulated an outstanding record as a stock picker and accumulated substantial wealth, people should not emulate his example in life in general. He believes his life has been too devoted to improving his own mind and that peculiarities of his personality (including, but not limited to, irreverence) will make people unpopular if they blindly follow his example.
Munger recognizes that he is a lightning rod that may attract criticism on some issues. Munger said once, “I may be remembered as a wise ass,” whereas his investing partner Warren Buffett will be remembered as a teacher. People sometimes say to me that they do not understand the fuss about Charlie Munger. Unfortunately, they are missing a key point: no one can ever be Charlie Munger, just like no one can be Warren Buffett. The point is not to treat anyone like a hero, but rather to consider whether Munger, like his idol Benjamin Franklin, may have qualities, attributes, systems, or approaches to life that we might want to emulate, even in part. This same process explains why Munger has read hundreds of biographies. Learning from the success and failure of others is the fastest way to get smarter and wiser without a lot of pain.
Despite his irreverence, Munger is a teacher in his own inimitable way. He said once:
The best thing a human being can do is help another human being know more.
—CHARLIE MUNGER, BERKSHIRE ANNUAL MEETING, 2010
Much of what is interesting about Munger is explained by this simple sentence: “I observe what works and what doesn’t and why.” Life happens to Munger as it does to everyone, but unlike many people he thinks deeply about why things happen and works hard to learn from the experience.
Like Warren Buffett, Munger was born and raised in Omaha, Nebraska. He studied mathematics at the University of Michigan, but his path toward a college degree there was interrupted by World War II. During the war he served as a meteorologist in the U.S. military, receiving his training at the California Institute of Technology. After the war ended he was able to secure a place at Harvard Law School without an undergraduate degree. He learned to like California during his time at Cal Tech, and after law school he proceeded to form with a few partners what would become one of the nation’s most prestigious law firms. Despite that success, he soon left the legal profession to invest on a fulltime basis at the urging of Warren Buffett, whom he did not meet until after he was living in Pasadena, California. Between 1962 and 1975, Munger ran a partnership for a group of investors, which generated annual financial returns of nearly 20 percent, compared to a less than 5 percent return for the Dow Jones industrial average during the same period. Munger does not collect Ferraris or have a huge mansion. In many aspects of his life that do not involve ideas or investing, Munger is quite ordinary despite being a billionaire.
While Munger has delivered numerous speeches, written essays, and entertained legions of shareholders at Wesco Financial and Berkshire Hathaway annual meetings, his ideas have not yet been presented in a form that might be called a unified theory. This is probably because Munger ’s mind is capable of feats that are too hard for people of more conventional intelligence. For ordinary people, simultaneously juggling what he calls “multiple models” in their head is not an easy task without an understandable framework for the ideas. The intent of this book is to teach you how to think more like Charlie Munger.
How did I find my way to the ideas of Munger? The genesis of this book can be traced to the period immediately before the collapse of the Internet bubble. Many assumptions about investing were being questioned during this time. The wealth created during the Internet bubble was unreal to anyone paying attention. Marc Andreessen expressed it well when he said on Twitter that during this bubble, “the overwhelming feeling people had was panic—that they were missing out.” What was going on seemed to be mass insanity, but most people thought to themselves, “What if it’s real? What if value doubled or tripled again?” It was natural for anyone who, like me, was seeking answers about what was going on in the markets during this crazy period to read the views of successful and thoughtful investors.
To cope with what was going on in the markets, in the summer of 1999 I chartered a boat, hired a skipper, and told him to take my family to the San Juan Islands in Washington state. I took everything that had ever been written by and about Buffett with me on that trip. As I read Buffett’s investing methods sitting on the deck of that boat, I found that it was actually Munger ’s ideas that resonated most with me. The specific question I most wanted answered at that time was how much of my stock in highly appreciated Internet and telecommunications companies I should sell. My family had a blast on the boat and the islands while I read and paced back and forth on the deck deep in thought. I did little else for a week but read and think; I was not a lot of fun on that trip. However, as the trip drew to a close, I had reached my conclusion: I would sell exactly half my Internet and telecom stocks. I decided that this would minimize regret, no matter what happened. It was not an optimal decision given the crash that followed, but I was happy with my decision then and remain so today. That trip was the start of my deep dive into value investing.
The value investing system developed by Ben Graham and used by Munger is the single best way for an ordinary investor to outperform a market index. While Graham value investing is a system, it is not possible for an investor following this approach to find success simply by following a set of rigid rules. The implementation of the Graham value investing system, the Berkshire system, or the systems of other value investors is an art, not a science. Value investing is not a connect-the-dots exercise. While fully understanding the Graham value investing system does not involve rocket science, most people will find that they either do not have the emotional and psychological control required or do not want to do the work necessary to outperform a market index. This is why Warren Buffett likes to say that “investing is simple, but not easy.”2 Munger ’s version of what Buffett said is: “Take a simple idea and take it seriously.”
Much of this book is about how I have learned to better identify sources of emotional and psychological mistakes and what I learned from Munger about avoiding them. Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig described one of the essential challenges in investing in an email to me:
If it was easy to be like him and think like him, then there wouldn’t be just one Charlie Munger. Turning oneself into a learning machine with multiple mental models … is very hard work, and the few people who succeed at doing it may still fail to benefit from it if they don’t have the right temperament. This is why both Buffett and Munger keep going back to Graham: Being a true contrarian takes supreme courage and implacable calm. Buffett talks constantly about the “emotional framework” Graham provides; Charlie often says that most investors, no matter how smart, won’t succeed because they have “the wrong temperament.” I like to use a word from ancient Greek philosophy to describe this: ataraxia, or perfect imperturbability. You see it when Socrates goes on trial, when Nathan Hale is hanged, when Buffett invests in Goldman and when Charlie buys Wells Fargo the day before the bottom tick in March 2009.
—JASON ZWEIG, EMAIL TO AUTHOR, OCTOBER 2014
To help myself better understand Munger ’s ideas and methods that relate specifically to investing, I created a framework composed of three elements: principles, the right stuff, and variables. This three-part framework is only one type of model that can be used to understand Munger ’s ideas and methods about investing. Other approaches to understanding Munger can be just as useful. My other intent in creating this framework was to create a checklist that can be used in investing. Munger is a strong proponent of a checklist approach to life’s challenges:
I’m a great believer in solving hard problems by using a checklist. You need to get all the likely and unlikely answers before you; other wise it’s easy to miss something important.
—CHARLIE MUNGER, WESCO ANNUAL MEETING, 2007
Part of the benefit of creating a checklist is the process of writing down your ideas. I have always loved the point Buffett made about the importance of making the effort to actually put your ideas in writing. In Buffett’s view, if you cannot write it down, you have not thought it through.
To best fulfill the promise of a book entitled Charlie Munger: The Complete Investor, it is essential to start out with a discussion of Graham value investing fundamentals because that will help convey an outline of where this book is going. The four fundamental principles of value investing as created by Ben Graham are as follows:
1. Treat a share of stock as a proportional ownership of the business.
2. Buy at a significant discount to intrinsic value to create a margin of safety.
3. Make a bipolar Mr. Market your servant rather than your master.
4. Be rational, objective, and dispassionate.
Munger has said these four bedrock Graham principles “will never be obsolete.” An investor who does not follow these principles is not a Graham value investor. The Graham value investing system really is that simple.
Munger also believes the development and recognition of certain personal attributes are essential for a Graham value investor. These attributes represent “the right stuff” part of my framework. Munger believes that investors who can develop these attributes can train themselves to avoid common psychological and emotional mistakes and become successful investors. No one is ever going to be anything approaching perfect, but we can all get better over time. If we do not work constantly to improve these attributes, Munger believes, we can relapse into old mistakes and folly.
The final section of the book will discuss choices that a Graham value investor can make in establishing his or her own investing style and methodology. In other words, variations on the Graham value investing system can be created on top of the four fundamental value investing principles. No two Graham value investors are exactly alike in how their investing system is implemented. As just one example, Buffett has pointed out that while he and Munger are “Siamese twins, practically,”3 they do have some differences in their approaches to investing.
The learning and teaching opportunities related to investing are essentially unlimited. Munger likes to say that a successful investor never stops being a “learning machine.” This need to learn and relearn means that an investor must read and think constantly. Munger has said he does not know a single successful investor who does not read voraciously. His own children describe him as a “book with legs sticking out.” Reading and learning will require some real work. There is a Zen saying that can be made applicable to this point: “In matters related to value investing, many people prefer chewing the menu to actually eating the food.” I have learned not only to do the work but to love the work because it is intellectually satisfying. You can learn to at least enjoy the process—and maybe even love it too.
Before concluding this introduction, I should make a few points about the book itself. Its format is simple. Quotations from Munger have been set out in a logical order, typically followed by an explanation that I have written. Unless otherwise indicated, the quotation is something Munger has said. There is a glossary in the back of the book, so if you read a term you are not familiar with (e.g., net present value), you have a definition at hand.
The best way to teach people about how Munger thinks is to examine the dominant professional activity of his life in some depth. This book’s focus is on how Munger thinks as an investor. Munger has called being a successful investor a “trained response.” He believes that if you can learn to overcome behavior that drives poor decisions, you can gain an edge over other investors. Much of the context of the book will be about how Munger invests, but the discussion is just as applicable to making decisions in other aspects of life. By understanding the framework that supports Munger ’s ideas and methods, each of his individual public statements has even more meaning. For example, by learning about what he calls worldly wisdom and the psychology of human misjudgment, you can make better decisions. Learning about Munger ’s ideas and methods will forever change the way you think about investing and about life. You will make better decisions, be happier, and live a more fulfilling life.
