Better and Better                                                                                                Day 59

      Today we will learn the first level of macroanalysis about a company, trend analysis. Any industry is essentially a product of the times and inevitably has to do with the trend of the times. In fact, most things, if you magnify them, have a lot of twists and turns in detail, but stretching them to a certain dimension which will be a relatively definite trend. This requires you to analyze from two aspects. The first is to find leading indicators to predict that this will happen in the future, such as the age structure of ageing China. The second is to start analysis from common sense. For example, resources will flow spontaneously to higher returns, technology will continue to improve efficiency,etc.           

      今天我們來學習公司宏觀分析的第一個層面，趨勢分析。任何行業本質上都是時代的產物，不可避免地要跟時代的大趨勢發生關係。其實，大部分事情如果比把它放大了看，都有很多曲曲折折的細節，但拉長到一定維度看，就變成了一個相對確定性的趨勢。你需要從兩方面開分析：首先是找到領先指標，判斷這件事必然會發生，比如中國老齡化中的“年齡結構”；其次是從常識的角度出發，比如資源會自發向回報高的方向流動，科技會不斷提升效率，等。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Oct.22th ,2018                                                                                                                    Bazhou.