我们处在后真相时代,当你看新闻,听到别人讲故事时,请认真想一想,它是不是真的?
We accept a story uncritically if it confirms what we'd like to be true. And we reject any story that contradicts it.
我们会不加批判的接受一个故事,当它证实了我们认为是真实的故事时,并且我们会拒绝与之相悖的故事。
A single story is meaningless and misleading unless it's backed up by large-scale data. But even if we had a large-scale data, that might still not be enough. Because it could still be consistent with rival theories.
但一个简单的故事时没有意义且误导人的,除非它有大量的数据支持。但即便我们有大量的数据,这可能仍然不够。因为它可能与对立结论一致。
Data is just a collection of facts. Evidence is a data that supports one theory and rules out others. So the best way to support your theory is actually to try to disprove it, to play devil's advocate.
数据只是事实的组合。证据是支持一种理论,排除其他理论的数据。所以支持你的理论最好的方法是,试图去反驳它,做魔鬼的代言人(唱反调)。
We should ask the following: If it's a story, is it true? If it's true, is it backed up by large-scale evidence? If it is, who is it by, what are their credentials? Is it published, how rigorous is the journal?
反过来,我们应该问:如果这是个故事,这是真的吗?如果这是真的,有大量的证据支持吗?如果有,证据是谁提供的,他们的凭证是什么?它发表了吗?这个期刊是否足够权威?
And ask yourself the million-dollar question: If the same study was written by the same authors with the same credentials but found the opposite results, would you still be willing to believe it and share it?
并且郑重的问自己,如果同样的研究,由同等资质的作者所写,却得出相反的结论,你还愿意相信并分享它吗?
Only if it's true can it be fact. Only if it's representative can it be data. Only if it's supportive can it be evidence. And only with evidence can we move from a post-truth world to a pro-truth world.
只有它是真的,才能成为事实。只有具有代表性,才能成为数据。只有提供支持,才能成为证据。只有是证据,我们才能从后真相世界走向支持真相的世界。