MY PRINCIPLES AND HOW I LEARNED THEM

I  learned my principles over a lifetime of making a lot of mistakes and  spending a lot of time reflecting on them. Since I was a kid, I’ve been a  curious, independent thinker who ran after audacious goals. I got excited  about visualizing things to go after, had some painful failures going after  them, learned principles that would prevent me from making the same sort of  mistakes again, and changed and improved, which allowed me to imagine and go  after even more audacious goals and do that rapidly and repeatedly for a long  time. So to me life looks like the sequence you see on the opposite page.

我是在不断犯错的过程中获得自己的原则的。并在此过程中耗费了大量的时间。打小时候起，我就是一个好奇心旺盛，能对那些大胆的目标独立思考的人。并为目标之后的具体事情感到兴奋着迷。当然也有一些痛苦的经历。已经掌握的原则会帮我避免重复的错误。使我改变和进步。并进一步使我能更快的长期反复思考、设想更大胆的目标，所以我的人生看起来像是在不同方向的连续剧集。

I  believe that the key to success lies in knowing how to both strive for a lot  and fail well. By failing well, I mean being able to experience painful  failures that provide big learnings without failing badly enough to get  knocked out of the game.

我相信成功的秘诀在于懂得如何平衡努力抗争和失败。我的意思是在经历大量的痛苦失败中获得经验而不是被击败出局了。

This  way of learning and improving has been best for me because of what I’m like  and because of what I do. I’ve always had a bad rote memory and didn’t like  following other people’s instructions, but I loved figuring out how things  work for myself. I hated school because of my bad memory but when I was  twelve I fell in love with trading the markets. To make money in the markets,  one needs to be an independent thinker who bets against the consensus and is  right. That’s because the consensus view is baked into the price. One is  inevitably going to be painfully wrong a lot, so knowing how to do that well  is critical to one’s success. To be a successful entrepreneur, the same is  true: One also has to be an independent thinker who correctly bets against the  consensus, which means being painfully wrong a fair amount. Since I was both  an investor and an entrepreneur, I developed a healthy fear of being wrong  and figured out an approach to decision making that would maximize my odds of  being right.

对我来说获得学习和进步的最好的方法在于我喜欢什么和我为之努力的地方。我一直有着非常糟糕的机械刻板的记忆力，不喜欢尊崇他人的教导。但是我喜欢探究如何让食物为我工作。因为糟糕的记忆力我很讨厌学校，当我12岁的时候我对市场交易深深的着迷。在市场上赚钱，你需要成为一个能拒绝随大流和主流意见的独立思考者。因为主流观点总是屈从于价格。人们也总是不可避免的因为主流意见而遭受痛苦的挫折。所以知道如何做好独立思考是一个人成功的决定性因素。

想成为一个成功的企业家同样需要独立思考。并能恰当的分辨那些可能导致一系列错误决策的主流观点。从我成为投资人和企业家起，就建立了一套健康的远离失败的，具象化最大化做出正确决定的方法。

1、Make  believability-weighted decisions.

My  painful mistakes shifted me from having a perspective of “I know I’m right”  to having one of “How do I know I’m right?” They gave me the humility I  needed to balance my audacity. Knowing that I could be painfully wrong and  curiosity about why other smart people saw things differently prompted me to  look at things through the eyes of others as well as my own. That allowed me  to see many more dimensions than if I saw things just through my own eyes.  Learning how to weigh people’s inputs so that I chose the best ones—in other  words, so that I believability weighted my decision making—increased my  chances of being right and was thrilling. At the same time, I learned to:

1、 做有信任度加权的决策

沉痛失误使我在“我知道我是正确”的到“怎么分辨我是正确”的观念之间摇摆。失误使我保持谦恭，我需要抵消我的鲁莽行为。出于对其他聪明人看事物的不同方向的好奇心使我快速的站在他人的角度来观察、思考一件事。也能使我多维度思考。通过学习掌握如何评判他人的输入，我能从中选择最优的解决办法。我的决策的可靠度也增加了我获胜的机会。同时我了解到。

2、Operate  by principles . . .

. . . that are so clearly laid out  that their logic can easily be assessed and you and others can see if you  walk the talk.Experience taught me how invaluable it is  to reflect on and write down my decision-making criteria whenever I made a  decision, so I got in the habit of doing that. With time, my collection of  principles became like a collection of recipes for decision making. By  sharing them with the people at my company, Bridgewater Associates, and  inviting them to help me test my principles in action, I continually refined  and evolved them. In fact, I was able to refine them to the point that I  could see how important it is to:

2、 按照原则行事

如果你和他人都按原则办事并说到做到，那么人们的逻辑是很容易评判的。

经验教会我事后总结反思和记下你做决策时的准则为什么是无价的。也因此我养成了反思和总结的习惯。随着时间我的原则库成了一个决策制定的方法集合。通过与我的同事，桥水基金分享这些原则集合，并邀请他们帮我检验我的原则，我持续的锤炼和进化我的原则集合。事实上我能提炼到什么程度取决于我对他的重要性的认识程度。

3、Systemize  your decision making.

I  discovered I could do that by expressing my decision-making criteria in the  form of algorithms that I could embed into our computers. By running both  decision-making systems—i.e., mine in my head and mine in the computer—next  to each other, I learned the computer could make better decisions than me  because it could process vastly more information than I could, and it could  do it faster and unemotionally. Doing that allowed me and the people I worked  with to compound our understanding over time and improve the quality of our  collective decision making. I discovered that such decision-making  systems—especially when believability weighted—are incredibly powerful and  will soon profoundly change how people around the world make all kinds of  decisions. Our principle-driven approach to decision making has not only  improved our economic, investment, and management decisions, it has helped us  make better decisions in every aspect of our lives.

Whether  or not your own principles are systemized/computerized is of secondary  importance. The most important thing is that you develop your own principles  and ideally write them down, especially if you are working with others.

3、决策系统化

我发现系统化的决策可以表现为内化为自身决策的一整套算法。通过运行双决策制定系统，也就是说自我和计算机中的我。彼此呼应，我发现电脑比我自己判断能更好的做出决策，因为计算机能处理更巨量的信息，并且更快且不受情绪影响。通过计算机使我和合作伙伴结合我们的认知并提升群体决策的质量。我发现结合高可信度的决策制定系统拥有不可思议的力量，并将快速深远的改变全世界人们决策的方式。

我们的决策驱动模型使得决策的制定不仅仅能提升改善我们的经济、投资和管理决策，还能在生活的各个方面发挥更好的作用。

无论你的原则是系统化还是计算机化都是第二重要的。最重要的事情是你要发展处自己的原则和概念化的分类记忆。尤其你要和他们一起协作。

It  was that approach and the principles it yielded, and not me, that took me from  being an ordinary middle-class kid from Long Island to being successful by a  number of conventional measures—like starting a company out of my two-bedroom  apartment and building it into the fifth most important private company in  the U.S. (according toFortune), becoming one of the  one hundred richest people in the world (according toForbes),  and being considered one of the one hundred most influential (according toTime). They led me to a perch from which I got to see  success and life very differently than I had imagined, and they gave me the  meaningful work and meaningful relationships I value even more than my  conventional successes. They gave me and Bridgewater far more than I ever  dreamed of.

Until  recently, I didn’t want to share these principles outside of Bridgewater  because I don’t like public attention and because I thought it would be  presumptuous to tell others what principles to have. But after Bridgewater  successfully anticipated the financial crisis of 2008–09, I got a lot of  media attention and so did my principles and Bridgewater’s unique way of  operating. Most of those stories were distorted and sensationalistic, so in  2010, I posted our principles on our website so people could judge them for  themselves. To my surprise, they were downloaded over three million times and  I was flooded with thank-you letters from all over the world.

I  will give them to you in two books—Life and Work Principles in one book, and  Economic and Investment Principles in the other.

正是不断发展和补充自己的原则，让原则自生而不是我，带着我从一个普通的中等资质的孩子到达长岛并因一系列常规意义上的公司而成功，从我的两个卧室的公寓到美国第五大最重要的私人公司（依据财富杂质排名），成为全世界最富有的100人的一员（依据福布斯排名），并成为全世界最有影响力的100人中的一员（依据时代杂质）。原则将我带到我从未想象过的位置来观察成功和生活。并给了我富含意义的工作和友谊，其价值远在我平常意义的成功。带给我和桥水基金远超想象的多。直到最近，我都没有向外界分享这些原则，因为我不想引起大众的关注。因为我不想让其他人以为我是在自以为是的布道。然后在桥水基金成功预测2008-09年的经融危机之后，我，我的原则和桥水基金的独特的运营方法也一样获得了大量的媒体关注。大多数故事都曲解了我们并且是耸人听闻的。所以在2010年，我在网络上发布了我们的原则，人们也能自己判断好坏。出乎我的意料下载超过300万次，并且我被来自全世界的感谢信给淹没了。

我愿意在本书里把这些原则公开给大家-生活和工作的原则在一本书，经济学和投资领域的原则在另一本书里。

我是007李小军，以上是我自己的翻译，也许不会太准确，我能保证也不会偏离作者的意思太远，不至于误导各位，谢谢观看。

本季作者雷达利奥先生谈的是他的原则和怎样得到这些原则的？

答案就是反复犯错并从中总结、反思、提炼而得到这些原则。

达利奥先生犯的错误我们不必再犯，因为那些错误显然或大或小，不是我们普通人所能承受的，可能一次就让我们彻底出局了，所以达利奥先生也提到最重要的是你能从中吸取、提炼原则并且保证自己不出局，始终在游戏当中。

达利奥先生总结了他得到这些原则的三个办法：

1、 做可信度加权决策

可信度加权就是在做决策时换位思考、多维度思考、独立思考，不盲从，分析利弊，取最优解。

2、 按决策办事

依据决策行事，避免情绪化和个人主义，严格遵照原则行事。

3、 决策系统化

系统化和计算机化。将原则写下来，并输入计算机，反复提炼，提纯，提升，并定期检视自己的原则库。形成一套可靠度极高、可信任加权的原则集合。适用于工作和生活，依据这些系统化和计算机化的原则，可以做出最优的决策。

作者在这里没有详细举例说明，作为一个曾经的程序员，我理解是一套自动化程序，只需要输入条件和数据，程序能自动辅助决策，能给出依据目前专家系统库和经验算法的最优化解决方案。这其中的专家库就是作者要分享的行为原则，但是算法因人而异。

最后作者说到一旦建立了一整套的原则体系，那么这个东西很可能会反过来影响到自身，像是一个独立思考的外脑，很有趣对不对。像是AI助手，对吗？你给他的越多，他学习的越多，越能帮你做出决策，或许有一天能独立做出决策，也未可知。

本章就是这样，你是不是也可以立刻开始自己的原则库建立工作。

尽可能详细写下来，然后分类，排序，加权平均，形成列表。就可以成为一个简单的原则决策表，试试用它来帮你决策。比如你想辞职，但你犹豫不决，你可以试试自己建立一个决策列表，然后设置加权分，最后自己评测，过60分代表你应该辞职，否则就不要辞职。

以上是我的一个简单举例，试试吧。

这本书读到这里才刚开始，但是我越来越感兴趣是后面要说的具体的原则了。

等不及的朋友可以直接找中文书籍看看后面提到的具体的原则，然后试试转化成自己的决策系统。明天见。

                                                                                                007-4478  李小军

                                                                                              觉得好，就转发吧， 谢了