The China syndrome

What 2018 has in store for the markets

中国综合症，2018年的全球市场会发生什么

Investors are very optimistic. But two analysts think they may be ignoring a big risk        Dec 18th 2017 by Buttonwood

投资者对明年全球市场非常乐观，但有两位分析师认为投资者忽视了一个巨大的风险（中国崩盘，影响世界市场）

WHAT is in store for economies and markets in 2018? Around this time of year, a large number of analysts and fund managers are giving their views. Among the most interesting and thoughtful approaches can be found at Absolute Strategy Research (ASR), an independent group founded by David Bowers and Ian Harnett.

2018年全球经济和市场将会发生什么呢？每年的这个时候，大量的分析师和基金经理会给出他们的观点。绝对战略研究中心（ASR）会发表最为有趣有深度的见解/解决方案，ASR是由David Bowers 和Ian Harnett创立的独立机构。

ASR adds extra depth to its analysis by contrasting its own views with those of the consensus. To do so, the group polled 229 asset allocators, managing around $6trn of assets, for their views on the outlook for economies and markets. They found a groundswell of optimism; the probability of equities being higher by the end of 2018 was 61%, and that shares will beat bonds is 70%. The allocators think there is only a 27% chance of a global recession. And they are not worried about the prospect of the Federal Reserve pushing up interest rates.

绝对战略研究（ASR）通过对比自己和投资者的共识来特别深入分析。为了这个目的，ASR调查了管理价值达6万亿美金的229个资产组合去从宏观上分析全球的经济和市场。他们发现投资者们一片叫好；明年股市上扬的概率是61%，股价收益超过基金的可能高达70%。资产管理经纪人也认为发生全球经济危机的可能只有27%。而且他们不担心美联储加息。

There are some disconnects within the consensus view. The first is that investors expect volatility (as measured by the Vix) to rise next year. Usually, equities struggle in such circumstances. The second disconnect is between their views on the business cycle and those on the stockmarket; since last year, their optimism about the former has reduced while their bullishness about the latter has increased. A third disconnect is between their views on high-yield or junk bonds and equities. Normally, the two asset classes perform well at the same time. But investors are unenthusiastic about junk, preferring the debt issued by emerging market governments.

ASR与这些共识有一些分歧。首先是投资者期待明年的变化在增加（Vix 芝加哥期权交易所恐慌指数）。通常在这样的经济周期中股市会下降。第二点是他们对经济周期和股市的观点不同。从去年开始乐观派不再看好经济周期但看涨股市（商业景气度bullishness下行时:投机盛行，资金推动型经济，资本涌入股市，股市也会看涨）。第三点关于高收益债、垃圾债以及股票。通常情况下，两种资产组合会同时表现得好。但投资者并不看好垃圾股，而优先新兴市场政府的债务。

Messrs Bowers and Harnett think investors may be caught out by a slowdown in China. They are not forecasting anything dramatic; growth of 6.1% rather than the expected 6.7%. But that will drag down global growth to 3.3% from 3.5%. In addition, interest rates may rise a bit faster in America than investors expect. David Bowers says it is the “second derivative” that often drives markets—not the change, but the change in the rate of change.

Messrs Bowers 和Harnett认为投资者可能会因为中国的崩盘而套牢。他们不能惊人地预测中国GDP实际增长是6.1%而非预计的6.7%，但中国经济下降会让全球经济增长从3.5%跌到3.3%。另外，美元加息可能比投资者预计的要提前。David Bowers说改变市场的通常是“次级影响”，不是一般的改变，而是加剧了改变的可能性。

ASR points to the tightening of monetary policy that has occurred in China this year in the form of higher interest rates and slower money growth; given the normal lags, this will have its main impact in 2018. Signs have already emerged in the form of house prices in Beijing and Shanghai which were lower in October than they were a year ago. American and European companies have stepped up their capital spending given the signs of stronger global growth but they may be disappointed by the outcome in 2018.

ASR指出中国今年货币政策收紧以人民币利息、经济增长放缓的形式，其造成的主要影响将会发生在2018年。北京上海的房价较去年十月同期下降就是迹象。美国和欧洲的公司因为看到了全球经济的强劲增长而加大了资本的投入，但他们可能会因为2018年的结果而失望。

The other big worry is longer-term. The long era of quantitative easing (QE) has caused investors to look at asset classes in a different way. They have been deprived of their traditional source of portfolio income; government bond yields have been driven down to historic lows and have been locked away on central-bank balance sheets. Equities have been used as a source of income instead, with companies generating cash in the form of dividends and share buy-backs. And investors have sought to juice up their portfolios with alternative assets such as private equity. But these assets are illiquid, and backed by a lot of debt. So there may be a nasty shock in the next crisis when investors try to realise those illiquid assets.

另一个主要的担忧是长期的。长期的量化宽松改变了投资者看待资产组合的方式。他们剥离了传统的投资组合（安全性第一、流动性、最后才看中收益性）；政府债券降到了历史最低并排除在央行的资产负债表外。股票成了投资者盈利的一种方法，公司通过分红和股票回购来获得现金。（分红和回购世面的股份，都增加了股东的收益）。投资者争取加大另类投资比重如私募股权（alternative assests 非常见投资如：私募、风投、地产、矿产、艺术品等）但这些资产的流动性不足，背后有大量的债务。所以如果投资者要变现这些流动性较差资产的时候可能会目瞪口呆。

原文  https://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2017/12/china-syndrome

参考阅读 FT “投资者追逐新兴市场国债较高的回报率”  “中国股市持续向上基础”

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