Better and Better                                                                                                Day 60

    Today we will learn the sensitivity about a company. Companies like real estate, automobiles and resources belongs to cyclical industries, which are particularly sensitive to macro-economy and fluctuate with the fluctuation of macro-economic cycle. It is very important to study macro-economic of these companies. Some companies are industries that are less sensitive to macro-economy, such as rice and other necessities. For the middle part, they are not so closely related to the macro, and their macro influence is often asymmetric. If the macro goes well, they may not be well, because it depends on your follow-up analysis to stand out from competitions. But if the macro is bad, you should focus on the possible risk factors caused by fluctuation in environment.           

      今天我們來學習公司的敏感度分析。像房地產、汽車、資源品類的企業，它們都屬於周期性行業，對宏觀經濟特別敏感，會隨著宏觀經濟周期的波動而波動。研究這類公司，宏觀經濟就顯得非常重要。而有的公司所在的行業就對宏觀經濟比較不敏感，比如大米等生活必需品。對於中間部分的，跟宏觀有聯係卻又沒有那麽密切，它們受宏觀的影響往往是不對稱的。如果宏觀好，它們未必好，因爲能不能從競爭中脫穎而出，還要看你後續分析。但如果宏觀差，你要著重考慮大環境的波動可能造成的風險因素。 

                                                                                                            Oct.23th ,2018                                                                                                                  Bazhou.