第一篇

I show this because I wanna tell you a story about two teachers I had. One that I didn't like that much, the other who is a real hero to me.
I had a grade school teacher who taught geography by pulling a map of the world down in front of the blackboard. I had a classmate in the sixth grade who raised his hand and he pointed to the outline of the east coast of South America and he pointed to the west coast of Africa and he asked, “Did they ever fit together?”
And the teacher said, “Of course not. That's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard.” That student went on to become a drug addict and a ne'er-do-well. The teacher went on to become science advisor in the current administration.
But, you know, the teacher was actually reflecting the conclusion of the scientific establishment of that time. Continents are so big, obviously they don't move. But, actually, as we now know, they did move. They moved apart from one another. But at one time they did, in fact, fit together.
But that assumption was a problem. It reflected the well-known wisdom that what gets us into trouble is not what we don't know; it's what we know for sure that just ain't so. (Mark Twain) This is actually an important point, believe it or not, because there is another such assumption that a lot of people have in their minds right now about global warming that just ain't so. The assumption is something like this. The earth is so big we can't possibly have any lasting harmful impact on the earth's environment. And maybe that was true at one time, but it's not anymore. And one of the reasons it's not true anymore is that the most vulnerable part of the earth's ecological system is the atmosphere. Vulnera-ble because it's so thin.
My friend, the late Carl Sagan, used to say, “If you had a big globe with a coat of varnish on it, the thick-ness of that varnish relative to that globe is pretty much the same as the thickness of the earth's atmos-phere compared to the earth itself.” And it's thin enough that we are capable of changing its composition. That brings up the basic science of global warming. And I'm not gonna spend a lot of time on this because you know it well.
The sun’s radiation comes in in the form of light waves and that heat up the earth. And then some of the radiation that is absorbed and warms the earth is reradiated back into space in the form of infrared radiation. And some of the outgoing infrared radiation is trapped by this layer of atmosphere and held inside the atmosphere. And that's a good thing because it keeps the temperature of the earth within certain boundaries, keeps it relatively constant and livable.
But the problem is this thin layer of atmosphere is being thickened by all of the global warming pollution that's being put up there. And what that does is it thickens this layer of atmosphere, more of the outgoing infrared is trapped. And so the atmosphere heats up worldwide. That's global warming. Now, that's the traditional explanation. Here's what I think is a better explanation.
Global Warming, or: None Like It Hot!
• You're probably wondering why your ice cream went away. Well, Susie, the culprit isn't foreigners. It's global warming. - Global... - Yeah.
Meet Mr. Sunbeam. He comes all the way from the sun to visit earth.
• Hello, earth. Just popping in to brighten your day. And now I'll be on my way. - Not so fast, Sunbeam. We're greenhouse gases. You are going nowhere. - Oh, God, it hurts.
Pretty soon, earth is chock-full of Sunbeams. Their rotting corpses heating our atmosphere.
• How do we get rid of the greenhouse gasses?
• Fortunately, our handsomest politicians came up with a cheap, last-minute way to combat global warming. Ever since 2063, we simply drop a giant ice cube into the ocean every now and then. - Just like Daddy puts in his drink every morning. And then he gets mad.
• Of course, since the greenhouse gases are still building up, it takes more and more ice each time. Thus, solving the problem once and for all. - But...
• Once and for all!
我展示这个是因为我想告诉你一个关于我的两个老师的故事。一个是我不太喜欢的，另一个是我真正的英雄。
我有一个小学老师，他在黑板前把世界地图拉下来教地理。我六年级有个同学举起手来，他指着南美洲东海岸的轮廓，他指着非洲西海岸，问道：“他们曾经在一起吗？”“
老师说：“当然不是。“这是我听过的最荒谬的事情。”那个学生接着变成了一个瘾君子，一个做不好的人。这位教师后来成为现任政府的科学顾问。
但是，你知道，老师实际上反映了那个时代科学建立的结论。大陆是如此之大，显然它们不会移动。但是，事实上，正如我们现在所知道的，它们确实移动了。他们彼此分开。但有一次，事实上，他们是合二为一的。
但这个假设是个问题。它反映了一种众所周知的智慧：让我们陷入困境的不是我们不知道的，而是我们确实知道的，但事实并非如此。（马克吐温）这实际上是一个重要的观点，信不信由你，因为有另一种假设，即许多人现在都在考虑全球变暖，但事实并非如此。假设是这样的。地球如此之大，我们不可能对地球环境产生任何持久的有害影响。也许这曾经是真的，但现在不是了。其中一个原因是地球生态系统中最脆弱的部分是大气。脆弱是因为它很薄。
我的朋友卡尔·萨根（Carl Sagan）过去常说：“如果你有一个大地球，上面有一层清漆，那么相对于这个地球的清漆的厚度与地球大气圈相对于地球本身的厚度几乎相同。”而且它足够薄，我们能够改变它的构成。这就提出了全球变暖的基本科学。我不会花很多时间在这上面，因为你很清楚。
太阳的辐射以光波的形式出现，加热了地球。然后，一些被吸收并加热地球的辐射以红外辐射的形式重新辐射回太空。一些发出的红外辐射被这层大气俘获并被保存在大气中。这是一件好事，因为它使地球的温度保持在一定的范围内，保持相对恒定，并且适宜居住。
但问题是，由于全球变暖造成的污染，这一薄层大气正在变厚。它的作用是使这层大气变厚，更多的红外辐射被捕获。所以全球的大气层都在升温。这就是全球变暖。这是传统的解释。这是我认为更好的解释。
全球变暖，或：没有人喜欢它热！
•你可能想知道你的冰淇淋为什么会消失。嗯，苏西，罪魁祸首不是外国人。这是全球变暖。-全球…-是的。
认识Sunbeam先生。他一路从太阳来到地球。
•你好，地球。只是突然出现来照亮你的一天。现在我要上路了。-别那么快，阳光。我们是温室气体。你哪儿也不去。哦，天哪，疼。
很快，地球上就充满了阳光。他们腐烂的尸体加热了我们的空气。
•我们如何消除温室气体？
•幸运的是，我们最英俊的政治家想出了一个廉价的、最后时刻的方法来应对全球变暖。从2063年开始，我们只是时不时地往海里扔一个巨大的冰块。-就像爸爸每天早上放饮料一样。然后他就发疯了。
•当然，由于温室气体仍在积聚，每次都需要越来越多的冰。因此，一次性解决问题。-但是…

问题与答案

1. Q: Why was the charts drawn by Professor Roger Revelle is a line up and down?
   A: Because most of the land mass is north which has many plants and can let the plants breathe in carbon dioxide when the Northen Hemisphere is tilted toward the sun.
2. Q: What does the analogy of Mr.Sunbeam and the greenhouse gases indicate?
   A: It shows that the thicker layer of atmosphere can make more of the outgoing infrared is trapped and as a result the global warming is coming.
3. Q: What opinion does the cartoon explain?
   A: It tells us about the main causes of global warming vividly and show that a lot of troubles will be brought by the global warming.
4. Q: Why is the picture which taken by the Apollo 17 the only picture of the Earth from space that we have?
   A: Because the sun was directly behind the spacecraft at that time. The Earth is fully lit up and not partly in darkness.
5. Q: Why did the grade school teacher think that the two land cannot fit together?
   A: They thought Continents are so big, obviously they don’t move.
6. Q: Why is there a lot of people thought that global warming that just ain’t so?
   A: They thought the Earth is so big. We can’t possibly have any lasting harmful impact on the Earth’s environment.
7. Q: Why did your professor choose the middle of the Pacific to send these weather balloons up?
   A: Because it was the area that was most remote.
8. Q: Why was it a wonderful time for you when you were a college student?
   A: Because, like a lot of young people, I came into contact with intellectual ferment, ideas that I'd never considered in my wildest dreams before.
9. Q: Why is there a particular problem in the Himalayas?
   A: Because 40% of all the people in the world get their drinking water from rivers and spring systems that are fed more than half by the melt water coming off the glaciers.
10. Q: According to the lecture, what is the atmosphere like to the earth?
    A: Varnish to globe
11. Q: According to the lecture, why did I think that some of the outgoing infrared radiation is trapped by this layer of atmosphere and held inside the atmosphere which is a good thing?
    A: It is keeps the temperature of the Earth within certain boundaries, keeps it relatively constant and livable.
12. Q: Who was the first man propose measuring carbon dioxide?
    A: Roger Revelle

第二篇

If you haven't ordered yet, I generally find the rigatoni with the spicy tomato sauce goes best with diseases of the small intestine.
如果你还没有点菜，我通常发现带有辣番茄就酱的肋状通心粉和小肠疾病最相配。
00:24
So, sorry -- it just feels like I should be doing stand-up up here because of the setting. No, what I want to do is take you back to 1854 in London for the next few minutes, and tell the story -- in brief -- of this outbreak, which in many ways, I think, helped create the world that we live in today, and particularly the kind of city that we live in today. This period in 1854, in the middle part of the 19th century, in London's history, is incredibly interesting for a number of reasons. But I think the most important one is that London was this city of 2.5 million people, and it was the largest city on the face of the planet at that point. But it was also the largest city that had ever been built.
对不起——只是因为这里的环境我感觉我应该来个脱口秀。不，我想做的是在下面的几分钟，带你们回到1854年的伦敦。 并且讲个故事—— 简单地说——关于一个瘟疫的爆发。这个瘟疫，从很多方面来讲，我认为，帮助创造了我们今天生存的世界， 特别是我们现在居住的城市的样子。 1854年这个时期，19世纪的中期， 在伦敦的历史上是很不可思议的有趣的。原因有很多。 但是我认为最重要的一个原因是 伦敦是个拥有两百五十万人口的城市， 它是那时候这个星球上最大的一个城市。 但是，它也是所有曾经建筑的城市中最大的。
01:07
And so the Victorians were trying to live through and simultaneously invent a whole new scale of living: this scale of living that we, you know, now call "metropolitan living." And it was in many ways, at this point in the mid-1850s, a complete disaster. They were basically a city living with a modern kind of industrial metropolis with an Elizabethan public infrastructure. So people, for instance, just to gross you out for a second, had cesspools of human waste in their basement. Like, a foot to two feet deep. And they would just kind of throw the buckets down there and hope that it would somehow go away, and of course it never really would go away. And all of this stuff, basically, had accumulated to the point where the city was incredibly offensive to just walk around in.
所以维多利亚女王时代的人差不多是边过日子， 边创造着一种全新的生活标准。 这种生活标准，你知道，我们现在称之为都市生活。 从很多方面来讲，在19世纪50年代中期这个时间里，它是一个十足的灾难 那时的城市生活基本上是一个现代的化的工业大都市 但是仅有伊丽莎白时期的古老的公共基础设施。 因此人们，举个例子来说，仅仅让你作呕一下子，在他们的地下室，有人类排泄物的化粪池，大约，一两英尺深并且他们可能只是扔一个水桶在那里 并希望它以某种方式地消失， 当然，它将永远不会消失。 而且，所有这些脏东西，基本上，都已经到达一个程度 就是这个城市，只是走走就非常令人讨厌。
01:58
It was an amazingly smelly city. Not just because of the cesspools, but also the sheer number of livestock in the city would shock people. Not just the horses, but people had cows in their attics that they would use for milk, that they would hoist up there and keep them in the attic until literally their milk ran out and they died, and then they would drag them off to the bone boilers down the street. So, you would just walk around London at this point and just be overwhelmed with this stench. And what ended up happening is that an entire emerging public health system became convinced that it was the smell that was killing everybody, that was creating these diseases that would wipe through the city every three or four years. And cholera was really the great killer of this period.
它是一个非常臭的城市，不仅仅是因为那些化粪池， 而且这个城市里大量的家畜也会震惊人们。 不仅仅是马，而且人们在屋顶上有他们用于牛奶的牛， 他们可能会将那些牛升起来放到屋顶上 直到他们的牛奶确实的干涸，然后他们死亡， 接着，他们会将他们拖到街上的骨头锅炉里。 因此，你将在这个时期，仅仅在伦敦市里走走 就会被这种恶臭所压倒。 最后发生的是当时新兴的公共健康系统认为 恶臭正在不断的杀害每一个人， 恶臭正在创造着那些每三年或四年就会发生的疾病 扫遍这个城市。 而且，霍乱真的是这个时期最强大的杀手。
02:42
It arrived in London in 1832, and every four or five years another epidemic would take 10,000, 20,000 people in London and throughout the U.K. And so the authorities became convinced that this smell was this problem. We had to get rid of the smell. And so, in fact, they concocted a couple of early, you know, founding public-health interventions in the system of the city, one of which was called the "Nuisances Act," which they got everybody as far as they could to empty out their cesspools and just pour all that waste into the river. Because if we get it out of the streets, it'll smell much better, and -- oh right, we drink from the river. So what ended up happening, actually, is they ended up increasing the outbreaks of cholera because, as we now know, cholera is actually in the water. It's a waterborne disease, not something that's in the air. It's not something you smell or inhale; it's something you ingest.
它在1832出现在英国，然后每四年或五年发生一次。 每次流行都在伦敦造成一万到两万人死亡， 并波及到整个英国。 因此，政府确信这个恶臭就是问题的根源。 我们必须摆脱这个恶臭。 因此，事实上，他们建立了一些早先的，你知道 在城市系统里，成立公共卫生干预措施 那些措施中的一个被成为”滋扰法“ 就是他们尽量让每个人 把他们的花粪池清得越空越好，将所有的排泄屋倾倒到河里。 因为如果我们将它从街上弄走，城市应该就闻起来好多了， 噢，对了，我们饮用河里的水。 因此，结局，事实上 是他们最后增加了霍乱的爆发。 因为，就像我们现在知道的，霍乱其实就在水里。 它是一个由水携带传播的。而不是通过空气。 它不是你闻进去或呼吸进去的东西，它是你咽下去的东西。
03:37
And so one of the founding moments of public health in the 19th century effectively poisoned the water supply of London much more effectively than any modern day bioterrorist could have ever dreamed of doing. So this was the state of London in 1854, and in the middle of all this carnage and offensive conditions, and in the midst of all this scientific confusion about what was actually killing people, it was a very talented classic 19th century multi-disciplinarian named John Snow, who was a local doctor in Soho in London, who had been arguing for about four or five years that cholera was, in fact, a waterborne disease, and had basically convinced nobody of this. The public health authorities had largely ignored what he had to say. And he'd made the case in a number of papers and done a number of studies, but nothing had really stuck. And part of -- what's so interesting about this story to me is that in some ways, it's a great case study in how cultural change happens, how a good idea eventually comes to win out over much worse ideas. And Snow labored for a long time with this great insight that everybody ignored.
所以，19世纪公共健康系统的创立， 有效地污染了伦敦的供应水，比 任何现代生物恐怖分子梦想做的更有效。 这就是伦敦在1854年的状况， 在这种屠杀和进攻的时期， 和这种科学认识上的混乱之中， 这样的状况事实上是在屠杀人们。 那时有一个名叫斯诺的人，他是个非常有才华的19世纪的传统的多规律学者， 他是伦敦苏荷的一个地方医生， 他一直争论了四五年。 他认为霍乱，实际上，是一个种水性疾病， 而且，基本上没有一个人相信他。 公共健康机关完全忽略了他的话。而且，他把他的想法写成了很多论文，还做了很多研究， 但是，没有一个真正被保存下来的。 另外，关于他的故事，我非常感兴趣的一部分 是 ，从某些方面来讲，这是个非常重要的案例来研究文化的进展是如何发生的。 一个好的想法是如何最终战胜那些不好的想法的。 斯洛为这个被每一个人忽略的伟大观点辛劳了很长一段时间。
04:47
And then on one day, August 28th of 1854, a young child, a five-month-old girl whose first name we don't know, we know her only as Baby Lewis, somehow contracted cholera, came down with cholera at 40 Broad Street. You can't really see it in this map, but this is the map that becomes the central focus in the second half of my book. It's in the middle of Soho, in this working class neighborhood, this little girl becomes sick and it turns out that the cesspool, that they still continue to have, despite the Nuisances Act, bordered on an extremely popular water pump, local watering hole that was well known for the best water in all of Soho, that all the residents from Soho and the surrounding neighborhoods would go to.
然后，有一天，1854年8月28日， 一个小孩，一个5个月大的小女孩，我们不知道她姓什么， 我们只知道她叫宝贝刘易斯，不知如何染上了霍乱。 这样霍乱来到了40大街。 在这个地图上，你无法真正看到这个地方，但是，就是这个地图 成为我的书的后半部分的中心内容。 它位于苏荷的中部，工人阶级居住的地方。 这个小女孩病了。 而那里有一个化粪池，他们不管滋扰法，依然保持着的化粪池， 濒临一个非常受欢迎的水泵， 这个水泵被认为是整个苏荷最好的水源。 所有的苏荷居民，还有周围的居民都会去。
05:32
And so this little girl inadvertently ended up contaminating the water in this popular pump, and one of the most terrifying outbreaks in the history of England erupted about two or three days later. Literally, 10 percent of the neighborhood died in seven days, and much more would have died if people hadn't fled after the initial outbreak kicked in. So it was this incredibly terrifying event. You had these scenes of entire families dying over the course of 48 hours of cholera, alone in their one-room apartments, in their little flats. Just an extraordinary, terrifying scene. Snow lived near there, heard about the outbreak, and in this amazing act of courage went directly into the belly of the beast because he thought an outbreak that concentrated could actually potentially end up convincing people that, in fact, the real menace of cholera was in the water supply and not in the air. He suspected an outbreak that concentrated would probably involve a single point source. One single thing that everybody was going to because it didn't have the traditional slower path of infections that you might expect.
这个小女孩最后无意中 污染了这个受欢迎的水泵里的水。 接着英国历史上最可怕的瘟疫， 就在两三天后爆发了。 从字面上讲，在七天里，十分之一的居民都死了。 如果人们没有在最初几天逃离， 更多的人会死。 所以，是这个难以置信的可怕事件。 你可以看到整个家庭， 在48小时里，死于霍乱。 孤单地死在他们的一间屋的公寓，或小套间里。 一个非常可怕的场面。 斯洛住在那附近，听到了这个事件， 极其有勇气的直接进入这个虎口 因为他认为这个瘟疫的爆发 可能能让人们相信， 事实上，霍乱其实是真正通过饮用水而不是空气威胁人们的。 他怀疑这么集中的瘟疫爆发 可能始于一个单一的点源。 一个每个人去过的一个单一的点。 因为这次没有传统的你能预料的感染的缓慢途径。
06:43
And so he went right in there and started interviewing people. He eventually enlisted the help of this amazing other figure, who's kind of the other protagonist of the book -- this guy, Henry Whitehead, who was a local minister, who was not at all a man of science, but was incredibly socially connected; he knew everybody in the neighborhood. And he managed to track down, Whitehead did, many of the cases of people who had drunk water from the pump, or who hadn't drunk water from the pump. And eventually Snow made a map of the outbreak. He found increasingly that people who drank from the pump were getting sick. People who hadn't drunk from the pump were not getting sick. And he thought about representing that as a kind of a table of statistics of people living in different neighborhoods, people who hadn't, you know, percentages of people who hadn't, but eventually he hit upon the idea that what he needed was something that you could see. Something that would take in a sense a higher-level view of all this activity that had been happening in the neighborhood.
因此，他去了那里，并开始了采访人们。 他最终得到了这个另外一个惊人的人物的帮助， 他就是这本书的另外一个主角。 这个人，亨利白石，是当地的牧师， 他完全不相信科学，但他有非常好的社会关系。 他知道那里的每一个人， 所以他设法调查了，白石调查了， 很多人喝了这个水泵里的水的人， 和那些没有喝这个水泵里的水的人。 最后斯洛给这个事件画了一张图。 他逐渐发现喝过这个水泵里的水的人在不停的生病。 没有喝过那个水泵里的水的人没有生病。 然后他想到了用一种表 居住在不同街道的人的统计表， 没有喝的人，你知道的，没有喝的人的百分比， 但是最后，他偶然发现了这个想法 那就是他所需要的是你可以看的。 从某种意义上可以在更高水平上看到 在这个居民区到底发生了什么。
07:34
And so he created this map, which basically ended up representing all the deaths in the neighborhoods as black bars at each address. And you can see in this map, the pump right at the center of it and you can see that one of the residences down the way had about 15 people dead. And the map is actually a little bit bigger. As you get further and further away from the pump, the deaths begin to grow less and less frequent. And so you can see this something poisonous emanating out of this pump that you could see in a glance. And so, with the help of this map, and with the help of more evangelizing that he did over the next few years and that Whitehead did, eventually, actually, the authorities slowly started to come around. It took much longer than sometimes we like to think in this story, but by 1866, when the next big cholera outbreak came to London, the authorities had been convinced -- in part because of this story, in part because of this map -- that in fact the water was the problem.
然后他创造了这个地图， 这个地图基本上显示了在这个地区所有的死亡人数。 用黑色的条杠，在每一个地址上。 然后在这个地图你可以看到，这个水泵正好在地图的中间 而且，你还可以看到这下面的一个住处 有15人死亡。 这个地图实际上比我给你们看的稍微大些。 随着你不断的远离这个水泵， 死亡人数开始逐渐变得越来越少。 因此你可以看到这种有毒东西 污染了这个你可以很容易看到的水泵。 因此，在这个地图的帮助下， 在这个更像传福音的帮助下 他在接下来的几年里做的研究 还有白石做的，最后，事实上 政府慢慢的开始接受。 这个过程比我们通常以为对这类事情该花的时间要长很多， 但是到1866年，当下一个大型的霍乱在伦敦爆发的时候政府确信了——部分是因为这个故事， 另一部分是因为这个地图——事实上水是问题的存在。
08:31
And they had already started building the sewers in London, and they immediately went to this outbreak and they told everybody to start boiling their water. And that was the last time that London has seen a cholera outbreak since. So, part of this story, I think -- well, it's a terrifying story, it's a very dark story and it's a story that continues on in many of the developing cities of the world. It's also a story really that is fundamentally optimistic, which is to say that it's possible to solve these problems if we listen to reason, if we listen to the kind of wisdom of these kinds of maps, if we listen to people like Snow and Whitehead, if we listen to the locals who understand what's going on in these kinds of situations. And what it ended up doing is making the idea of large-scale metropolitan living a sustainable one.
他们已经开始在伦敦建立下水道， 而且立刻 告诉了每一个人开始把水烧开。 从那以后，那是伦敦最后的一次霍乱爆发。因此，这个故事的一部份，我认为——当然它是一个非常可怕的故事， 它是一个非常黑暗的故事，也是一个 不停发生在世界上很多发展城市的故事。 这也是一个从根本上很乐观的故事， 也就是说解决那些问题是可能的， 如果我们听信来由，如果我们听信那些地图的贤明之处， 如果我听信像斯洛和白石一样的人， 如果我们听信那些当地的懂得 在那样的情形下发生着什么的人。 最后这个故事引发了一个概念， 就是大型都市生活应该是可持续发展的。
09:15
When people were looking at 10 percent of their neighborhoods dying in the space of seven days, there was a widespread consensus that this couldn't go on, that people weren't meant to live in cities of 2.5 million people. But because of what Snow did, because of this map, because of the whole series of reforms that happened in the wake of this map, we now take for granted that cities have 10 million people, cities like this one are in fact sustainable things. We don't worry that New York City is going to collapse in on itself quite the way that, you know, Rome did, and be 10 percent of its size in 100 years or 200 years. And so that in a way is the ultimate legacy of this map. It's a map of deaths that ended up creating a whole new way of life, the life that we're enjoying here today. Thank you very much.
当人们看着十分之一他们的邻居上的人在 7天的时间里死去的时候， 有一个广泛的共识，那就是，这不能继续下去， 人们不应该生活在有两百五十万人口的城市里。 但是，因为斯洛所做的，因为这张地图， 因为所有这一系列的革命 发生在这个地图背后的， 我们现在认为拥有100万的城市很理所当然。像这样的城市实际上是持续发展的。 我们不担心纽约会自己崩溃 以那种方式，你知道的，就像罗马， 在100年或200年里，成为它原有的大小的十分之一。 这个概念在某种程度上成为这个地图的根本遗产。 它是一个创造了一种全新的生活方式的死亡地图， 我们正在享受的生活方式，非常感谢。