IV. Logical Fallacy IV :Survey

 · Testimonial Reasoning(证词类逻辑错误）

· Celebrity Endorsement vs. Testimonial Advertising

          ---- testimonial reasoning: 用别人的说法来说明自己的想法

· The author tries to cite one study / research / poll / data to support her arguement.

Eg:

· Conclusion:  周杰伦是最帅的男明星！

· Premise（前提）： 在最近的粉丝大调查中， 5000个受访者中有90%都说周杰伦是最帅的男明星。

-                   ---5000个样本不够大

                   ----5000个可能都是周总粉丝

                   ----问的问题会影响结论

                         ·周杰伦， X ，X , X , X 谁帅？

                   ----调查过程也会影响结论

                        ·用刀逼着

证词反驳的两个思路：

· Quantitative：

---定量分析：调查的样本数量不足以取信

---The sample size might be too small to rely on.

` Qualitative:

---定性分析：调查的样本是不是本身就祇有一个biased attitude 或者这个调查本身或者调查过程值得质疑

---Whether the participants in the study are already holding a biased attitude towards the topic or how the interview was designed and conducted. 

· NEVER deny the factual information from the suvey!!!

` Challenge the supporting relationship! 

* 用到census（普查）时：不能用样本不足/样本缺陷来反驳

1.分析作者思路：

Second, the author cites that fact in the survey that most people are in support of Adams' to promote Adams/ public popularity. 

2. 指出作者的逻辑错误：

However, several logicacl fallacies greatly weaken the reasoning chain. We respect the survey as a sound methodology, but we should critically question the reliability of the deliverables from the survey. From the quantitative perspective, the author does not consider the reliability of certain sample size; from the qualitative perspective, the author fails to provide detailed information as to how the participants have ben selected, and how the entire surveying proccess has been directed.

3.详细论证作者错误

---定量展开：关于受访者的数量：

On the one hand, in order for survey to be reliable, it must cover sufficient participants, and the number, which should be one important indicator, is not specified in the arguments;    （如果题目中没出现数字） and the number, which is XXX in the statement, is certainly not qualified to propose a generalization of the public preferences. （如果题目中出现了数字）

----定性展开：关于被访者的性质：

On the other hand, not all the  local residents have attended surveys, and those who have taken the time and effort for the survey and expressed satisfaction towards Adams could already be the loyal followers of Adams, and the directors might have deliberately chosen / gathered such people to form a seemingly public opinion. 

----定性展开2： 关于采访的过程：

Granted that the sample size and the participants composition could be reasonably justified, the author still does not inform the readers whether the surveys have been conducted in a misguiding way with manipulations that have intentionally underestimated other alternatives but highlighted the qualification of Adams.

4. 小总结：

Should it be the case, then the poll cited in the argument should be no more than a simple political propaganda, and the author cannot justify her support of Adams with such a poll.

meandering: 蜿蜒的河流

*政府的话：不可信的

1.分析作者思路

Second, the author tries to cite the result from several surbeys. covering local residents to strengthen her opinion that the mason residents like water sports activities in the leisure time. 

2. 指出作者的逻辑错误：

However, several logical fallacies greatly weaken the reasoning chain. We respect the survey as a good methology, but we should critically question the reliability of the deliverables from the survey. From the quantitave perspective, the author does not consider the reliability of certain sample size; from the qualitative perspectivve, the author fails to provide detailed information as to how the aparticipants have been selected and how the entire sueveying process has been directed. 

3.详细论证作者错误：

On the on hand, in order for any survey to be reliable, it must cover sufficient participants, and the numbers, which should be one important indicator, are not specified in the arguement. On the other hand, not all the Mason residents have attended the surveys, or the directors might have deliberately chosen / gathered those people who like water sports to form a seemingly public opinion. Granted that the sample size and the participants composition could be reasonably justified, the author still does not inform the readers whether the surveys have been conducted in a misguiding way with manipulations that have intentionally underestimated other alternatives but highlighted the water sports activities. 

4.小总结：

Accordingly, the result from such surveys does not lend strong support to the author standpoint. 

EG120 语料：

第一段：

The reduction of the reported cheating cases = the reduction of real cheating cases having happened; the teachers follow the school rules seriously, while students go more for high scores & care for their relationship with friends. Possible that the exams became easier, which eliminates teh need for cheating. 

第二段：

students in the survey: those who claim to be less cheating i nthe future might be the students who have never cheated in any test = they will not cheat in the future either = the effect of the HC is not guranteed as expected; how the survey was being conducted? 

Should the teacher stand next to the students when the students were responding to the survey?

第三段：

different schools : students conposition (demographic information & qualification & preferences): different levels of self- management awarness = different actions. 

因果反驳：

1.分析作者思路：

First, the author unfairly claims that the shopping mall should be responsible for a series of negative phenomena in Oak city such as business loss, parking shortage and crime increase.

2.指出作者的逻辑错误：

However, the author proposes here an oversimplified casual relationship analysis by carelessly or deliberately ignring the fact that these should also be other potential factors which might lead to a same consequence. 

3.详细论证作者错误：

On the one hand, closing of the local business might result from their poor customor servies and narrowed product offerings, and they could not satisfy the customers to foster loyalty; on the other han, the parking shortage should come directly from the tact that many residents have purchased more cars in the recent years, and the perhaps the city government did not make a wise decision when derermining the city design by ignoring the future changes of population and the cars, and the city could not provide sufficient parking slot consequently; furthermore, as for the increased crime rates and vagrancies, Oak city might have absorbed many immigrants from other regions, and those suddenly increased population might challenge the city capacity temporalily by bringing periodic interruption, which has nothing to do with the westablishment of the shopping mall. 

4.小总结：

As a result, the author cannot convince the public that the shopping mall is main push power behind those effects. 

对比反驳：

分析作者思路+指出作者的逻辑错误：

1.短剑平行：

Second, she goes further by suggesting that the city of Elim could simply refer to the failure in Oak to deny the shopping mall, but the author does not consider that there should exist huge difference between those two cities, and such differences would weaken the analogy of the two cities. 

2.段间让步通道

Second, granted that the shopping mall did bring the mentioned problems in Oak city as the author argues, she still cannot go furtherby suggesting that the city of Elm could simply refer to the failure in Oak to deny the shopping mall. It is because the author does not consider that these should exist huge differences between those two cities. 

3.详细论证作者错误：

There is no denying that the residents in Elm city should display totally different demographic characteristics in such aspects as their incomes, educational levels, and personal qualifications. It is possible that the residents in Elm city are mostly well-educated, and they are in uprising trend to consume more products to improve their daily life. Thus, the Elm residents should need a new shopping mall to satisfy their needs; on the other hand, the management skills of the government could also be superior to those in Oak in terms of maintaining social stability and public security. 

4.小总结：

As a result, the author caonnot simply proplse that the Oak failure would definitely re-occur to Elm and then Elm city should deny the shopping mall.

·Intro:

   ---The author claims that the Elm city should not establish the shopping mall with many reasons, but her arguementation bears many logical problems that would be analyzed and challenged as follows. 

·Conclusion:

  ---Accordingly, the author cannot fully justify her standpoint simply with all her above-mentioned reasons. 

Logical Fallacy V: Development

· 时间的逻辑错误

· 在statement 中，作者会简单地认为，过去发生在A的事情，A得到的结果，A获得的经验对于A的现在和将来有很大的benifits.

                 -----Logically speaking, unconvincing, she used to be a boy.

· Valuable experience and knowledge /best practice that Aacquired / accumulated from the past decisions and actions might also benefit its current and future development.

·Defination:

   ---第一种条件：出现了时间的专业： 在论据中 imply/ indicate "in the past, last year, past century", 而在论点中出现 imply “now, from now on , in the future".

  ---第二种条件：时间逻辑错误必须是同主题的一个传于，如果不是同一个主题的过去，现在和将来对比，那就不能写时间错误。

1.分析作者思路：

Moreover, the author believes that CC should continue with its investment in local radio advertising to improve the business, as it did last year.

2. 指出作者的逻辑错误：

However, the author fails to consider tha the development of any business should also contain unexpected fluctuations or even reverses, so it could be quite difficult to make accurate prediction of future trend simply referring to the past experiences, 

3. 详细论证作者错误：

The market situation and the customer preferences could be very different for CC in the future from those in the past. It is quite possible that the customers might have relied more on other promotions channels to get relevant information such as more from TV or social media. Thus, the radio advertising, despite its contribution in the past, might not benifit the CC in the future to the same degree.

4. 小总结：

Consequently, it is inappopriate for the author to deal with/ evaluate / analyse the dynamic issues from a static perspective. 

39. A recent sales study indicates that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent during the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants whose specialty is seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer homecooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about healthful eating. Therefore, the new Captain Seafood restaurant that specializes in seafood should be quite popular and profitable. Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

*XXX东西现在没有是肯定有原因的

· C： seafood restuarant in Bay City = popular + profitable 

· P1 : seafood consumption up by 30% in the past five years with no families national preferences. 

· 第一个点： in the past five years = in the future? 30% increase was a past trend that may change in the near future. i.e. nuclear leak in addition, dining preference in the past may alter as more people wouild want to eat home cooked meals due to healthier eating habits,

· 第二个点： Nationwide family preference = bay city family preference? healthy food = seafood only? 

· 第三个点： no seafood restaurant = the new onen must be popular? not easy to get the customers from the existing restuarants due to eat habits or location or custuomer royalty/ 

· 第四个点：CSR not necessarily attract more customers in the region = revenues not assured, furthermore, the construction + renocvation of the CSR would not cost a huge amount of money, and the seafood business may have no boundary of controlling raw material cost = high cost. THUS, the profitability not ensured.

7. The following is a recommendation from the Board of Directors of Monarch Books. "We recommend that Monarch Books open a café in its store. Monarch, having been in business at the same location for more than twenty years, has a large customer base because it is known for its wide selection of books on all subjects. Clearly, opening the café would attract more customers. Space could be made for the café by discontinuing the children's book section, which will probably become less popular given that the most recent national census indicated a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten. Opening a café will allow Monarch to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which recently opened its own café." Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation

· C：MB + Cafe - Childern Dpt = GOOD

· P1 :customer bases for books + customer bases for cafe

· P2:  MB - Children Dpt = good ( childern % declined )

· P3: Regal + Cafe

Argue P1:

Those who are interested in books should also be equally interested in visiting the cafe offerings in the MB. But ignorance of the difference between those two categories = customer experiences : book between those ttwo categories = customer experiences book store customers have dfiferent demand/ requirements on the store environment. They wish to stay in a quite and non-disturbing store to enjoy the readings, which might be disturbed by the noise and smell feom the offerings[- in the cafe. = people mmight reduce the frequency of visiting the stores. On the other hand, customers of the cafe might prefer to discuss and converse when eating, which might not be appropriate in the cafe next to the bok store, so the attractiviness of the offered cafe is also questionable. Thus, not necessarily more customers to the MB.

Argue P2:

The discountinuing of the children dpt because of potential fewer childeren book sales resulting from the decreased percentage of children under 10 in the census . BUT on the one hand, percent decrease not equal to the decrease of the absolute numbers of the children under 10 && calculating bases ** on the other hand, adults would also purchase the children books as memoreis of the childhood or collections *** national census = on average = in this area, the children no.might increase to compensate the decrease in other rigions. 

Argue P3:

Better compete with Regal : on the one hand, no detailed info. about the result of the cafe in Regal; on the other hand, two book srores with different customer segmentations: regal focuses more on fashion &young, M8 traditional book stores =  different strategies =- different actions。

Logical Fallacy VI : Dynamics  

· Profit / Ratio /dynamic Analysis 

· 一般而言， 一个结果可能有多个因素共同影响，但是作者可能简单认为只要对其中一个factor 就能行调整，就一定能够实现 disired result, 这个思路是不完整的。

· Profit = Revenues - Cost. 

· the qualification of education = number of courses + quality of courses + ......

· 所以能不能学的好不单纯等于课程的数量，每所学校的RESOURCES 是有限的，所以如果quantity太高，很可能quality和其他方面被dilute.

Sacchar 第三段：

trade dficit = export - import: only considering export = irrational - import is also crucial : export the raw materials, but import semi product or productswith higher added value ( cars, computers, etc.) = simply export adjustment not lead to the improvement in trade deficit. 

The author simply thinks that by increasing the export, the country could reduce the deficit in trade. However, the author does not consider / cincolce that the trade deficit is actually defined as a dunamic result of export and import, and simply altering the export situation could be an irrational idea, It is quite possible that the country of S mainly imports semi products, and hi-tech products with high added value at a higher price but expots raw material such as sugar at a lower price. As a result, just improving the export section without any adjustment in the import section could not necessarily lead to a trade balance. 

EG.128. The following appeared in a letter from the owner of the Sunnyside Towers apartment complex to its manager. "One month ago, all the showerheads in the first three buildings of the Sunnyside Towers complex were modified to restrict maximum water flow to one-third of what it used to be. Although actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available, the change will obviously result in a considerable savings for Sunnyside Corporation, since the corporation must pay for water each month. Except for a few complaints about low water pressure, no problems with showers have been reported since the adjustment. Clearly, modifying showerheads to restrict water flow throughout all twelve buildings in the Sunnyside Towers complex will increase our profits further." Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

C: 12 buildings + water control = better profit

· P1: 3buildings + water control = less water usage without actual readings

· P2: fewer complains = no problem = water control is good

· Profit: 为了降低cost， 所欲i想办法控制用水， 但是如果大家搬走了，就没有租金了，所以revenue就少了， 而且cost 还是不确定的， 所以profit也是不确定的。

没人抱怨不代表满意

第一段：

The author does not consider that the total warter usagfe is defined / determined as asa dynamic result of both water flow per second and the entire flowing time. With less water coming from the shower heads per second, people would intentionally extend the time spend on showering = the fineal total water usage is not surely to decrease = the final total water usage is not surely to decrease especially when the actual readings are not ready. 

第二段：

 water pressure = the same problem : residents just choose another wording to deliaver the same information ; no repotrted complains = people are satisfied? 

Complain could be difficult or a long time war without satisfying result. 

第三段：

3 Buildings to 12 buildings :" on the other hand, residents composition / structure : senior might not tolerate a longer showering time because of  physical conditions, whild some people are under time pressure in the morining and cannot spend much time showering. Onb the other hand, different bulding sturctures also determine the possibility of implementing such changes ; the other nine buildings might not suypport such an adjustment. 

第四段：

 profit improvement : should residents be dissatisfied with such a desicison but they are not going to complain,. they would choose to move out of the complex, which would lead to the decline in the rentals for the Sunnyside complny. As a result , despite the fact htaet such an action might indeed help reduce the water usage cost, it might  also reduce the revenue of Sunnyside. 

127. The following is a recommendation from the personnel director to the president of Acme Publishing Company. "Many other companies have recently stated that having their employees take the Easy Read SpeedReading Course has greatly improved productivity. One graduate of the course was able to read a 500-page report in only two hours; another graduate rose from an assistant manager to vice president of the company in under a year. Obviously, the faster you can read, the more information you can absorb in a single workday. Moreover, Easy Read would cost Acme only $500 per employee—a small price to pay when you consider the benefits. Included in this fee is a three-week seminar in Spruce City and a lifelong subscription to the Easy Read newsletter. Clearly, to improve overall productivity, Acme should require all of our employees to take the Easy Read course." Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

· 第一段：

couses not the reason for enhanced productivity: the company should take other actions to achieve the same outcome : update the machines ; optimize the procedure / process / introduce efficient mechanism ; on the other hand, the two individuals in the reasoning = convincing : the achievement pf the vice president also results from her hardworking? 

· 第二段：
 others = Acme : different companies with working schedule & requirement = Acme might be designing company? talents / creation / passion / expetise / skills more important than reading speed ! 

        ----content curation vs content creation = reading speed vs creativity. 

· 第三段：

the faster you can read, the more you can absorb: teh efficiency of learning is not defined by the speed but more by the qualitative reading and processing of the absorbed information within a period

· 第四段:

500 rice = benifits :L 3 weeks seminar mightt not be attended by the employees = useless, subscription = not necessarily read = =not useful. Thus, the 500 is not a small price if all the benefits cannot be really enjoyed by the employees = no good reason for the company to apply such a strategy. 

Arguement 65:

65. When Stanley Park first opened, it was the largest, most heavily used public park in town. It is

still the largest park, but it is no longer heavily used. Video cameras mounted in the park's parking

lots last month revealed the park's drop in popularity: the recordings showed an average of only 50

cars per day. In contrast, tiny Carlton Park in the heart of the business district is visited by more

than 150 people on a typical weekday. An obvious difference is that Carlton Park, unlike Stanley

Park, provides ample seating. Thus, if Stanley Park is ever to be as popular with our citizens as

Carlton Park, the town will obviously need to provide more benches, thereby converting some of

the unused open areas into spaces suitable for socializing.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be

sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for

the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted

· 第一段：

 S = not popular, but not supported with the numbers of parking cars: the scales of tickets should be a better indicator. (counter argue)

· 第二段：

 C's popularity = brenches?  因果逻辑错误 = otherreasons, the most revelavant of which could be the location in business district with naturally many passengers and office workers searing for relaxation during breaks every day ** central park in NYC. 

· 第三段：

 C = S ? 类比逻辑错误 = 还是 location : S could best be avaliable with cars because of long distance from the center, with C in CBD = far away + outdated facilities of S prevent currnet residents from visitin the park with the quickening life pace. OR reansportation traffic. 

Eg.56：

The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of marketing at Dura-Sock, Inc.

"A recent study of our customers suggests that our company is wasting the money it spends on its

patented Endure manufacturing process, which ensures that our socks are strong enough to last for

two years. We have always advertised our use of the Endure process, but the new study shows that

despite our socks' durability, our average customer actually purchases new Dura-Socks every three

months. Furthermore, our customers surveyed in our largest market, northeastern United States

cities, say that they most value Dura-Socks' stylish appearance and availability in many colors.

These findings suggest that we can increase our profits by discontinuing use of the Endure

manufacturing process."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be

sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for

the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

开头段：

The author argues that the company should discontinue the Endure process to improve the company profit with many reasons, byut the argumentation bears some logical problems that would be discussed below. 

第一段：

First, the author unfairly claims that the Endure process which guarantee the 2 years' quality should be discontinued because the customers re-purchase those socks every three months. 

However, the author here proposes an oversimplified casual relationship analysis by simply connecting the customer behaviours and the company promisies. On the one hand, it totally makes sense for the customers to change their socks every three months, so we could assume with confiodence that they should have already been convinced of the excellent quality of the socks both from their use experience and the intensive marketing campaign. As a result, should the company discontinue the Endure process, the quality would be lowered down and the company  would lose some existing customers.

第二段：

Second, the author cites the result from the survey in the largest market that most peoplke prefer colors and style to argue that the company should not pay much attention to the Endure process. However, the author does not provide more informaation as to how those participants have been selected and how the poll has been directed among such people. On the one hand, there are possibilities that the selected individuals for the survey migfht care more about fashion, and there is no information about how survey was conducted, whether other standards such as qualioty were ignored or not. Furthermore, even if the survey was scientifically conducted, the prefertence of color and style does not mean that they never consider the quality, It is also possible that the participants take it for granted that the stylish and colorful socks should already deliver excellent quality. Should it be the case, the author cannot justify her standpoint by citing such survey. 

第三段：

Last but not least, the author simplisitically claims that the discontinuation of the Endure process could help improve the profit of the company. However, the author does not consider that profit is actually defined as a dynamic result of both revenues and costs, and a simple adjustment in just one section in the equation could not deliver the expected improvement. On the other hand, as discussed before, the durability should be the basis for customers to choose Dura Socks every three months, so the discontinuation of the Endure proceess might impact the quality negatively and lead to the loss of potential customers, which eventually leads to a decline in terms of revenue. On the other hand, we could not deny the cost reduction from such an action, but the cost reduction might not necessarily compensate for the loss in the revenues. Accordingly, the profit improvement could not be guaranteed asa the author initially proposes in the arguement. 

结尾段：

In short, the author cannot fully support her stand point simply with all her reasons mentioned above. 

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