【灰度预测】基于灰色模型实现电力负荷预测含Matlab源码

1 简介

以忻州市1994~2004年用电量数据为例介绍了灰色预测技术在电力系统中的应用,并与忻州市1994年至2004年工农业生产总值(不变价)和同期用电量数据建立的一元线性回归模型预测结果进行了对比分析,进一步说明了灰色模型预测具有较高的置信度和应用价值。

2 部分代码

function varargout = gmgui(varargin)

% GMGUI MATLAB code for gmgui.fig

%      GMGUI, by itself, creates a new GMGUI or raises the existing

%      singleton*.

%

%      H = GMGUI returns the handle to a new GMGUI or the handle to

%      the existing singleton*.

%

%      GMGUI('CALLBACK',hObject,eventData,handles,...) calls the local

%      function named CALLBACK in GMGUI.M with the given input arguments.

%

%      GMGUI('Property','Value',...) creates a new GMGUI or raises the

%      existing singleton*.  Starting from the left, property value pairs are

%      applied to the GUI before gmgui_OpeningFcn gets called.  An

%      unrecognized property name or invalid value makes property application

%      stop.  All inputs are passed to gmgui_OpeningFcn via varargin.

%

%      *See GUI Options on GUIDE's Tools menu.  Choose "GUI allows only one

%      instance to run (singleton)".

%

% See also: GUIDE, GUIDATA, GUIHANDLES

% Edit the above text to modify the response to help gmgui

% Last Modified by GUIDE v2.5 10-May-2016 08:02:00

% Begin initialization code - DO NOT EDIT

gui_Singleton = 1;

gui_State = struct('gui_Name',       mfilename, ...

                   'gui_Singleton',  gui_Singleton, ...

                   'gui_OpeningFcn', @gmgui_OpeningFcn, ...

                   'gui_OutputFcn',  @gmgui_OutputFcn, ...

                   'gui_LayoutFcn',  [] , ...

                   'gui_Callback',   []);

if nargin && ischar(varargin{1})

    gui_State.gui_Callback = str2func(varargin{1});

end

if nargout

    [varargout{1:nargout}] = gui_mainfcn(gui_State, varargin{:});

else

    gui_mainfcn(gui_State, varargin{:});

end

% End initialization code - DO NOT EDIT

% --- Executes just before gmgui is made visible.

function gmgui_OpeningFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles, varargin)

% This function has no output args, see OutputFcn.

% hObject    handle to figure

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% varargin   command line arguments to gmgui (see VARARGIN)

% Choose default command line output for gmgui

handles.output = hObject;

% Update handles structure

guidata(hObject, handles);

% UIWAIT makes gmgui wait for user response (see UIRESUME)

% uiwait(handles.figure1);

% --- Outputs from this function are returned to the command line.

function varargout = gmgui_OutputFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles) 

% varargout  cell array for returning output args (see VARARGOUT);

% hObject    handle to figure

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Get default command line output from handles structure

varargout{1} = handles.output;

function edit1_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit1 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit1 as text

%        str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit1 as a double

global V;

V(1)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit1_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit1 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%       See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

function edit2_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit2 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit2 as text

%        str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit2 as a double

global V;

V(2)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit2_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit2 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%       See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

function edit3_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit3 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit3 as text

%        str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit3 as a double

global V;

V(3)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit3_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit3 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%       See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

function edit4_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit4 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit4 as text

%        str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit4 as a double

global V;

V(4)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit4_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit4 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%       See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

function edit5_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit5 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit5 as text

%        str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit5 as a double

global V;

V(5)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit5_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit5 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%       See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

function edit6_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit6 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit6 as text

%        str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit6 as a double

global V;

V(6)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit6_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit6 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%       See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

function edit7_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit7 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit7 as text

%        str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit7 as a double

global V;

V(7)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit7_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit7 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%       See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

function edit8_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit8 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit8 as text

%        str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit8 as a double

global V;

V(8)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit8_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit8 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%       See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

function edit9_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit9 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit9 as text

%        str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit9 as a double

global V;

V(9)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit9_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit9 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%       See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

function edit10_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit10 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit10 as text

%        str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit10 as a double

global V;

V(10)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit10_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit10 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%       See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

function edit11_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit11 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit11 as text

%        str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit11 as a double

global Vnew;

Vnew=str2double(get(hObject,'String'))

guidata(hObject, handles);

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit11_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit11 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%       See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

% --- Executes on button press in pushbutton1.

function pushbutton1_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to pushbutton1 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

clear

%首先完成前十个基础数据的预测

global V;

syms a b;

A=[a b]';

B=cumsum(V);  % 原始数据累加

n=length(V);

for i=1:(n-1)

    C(i)=(B(i)+B(i+1))/2;  % 生成累加矩阵

end

% 计算待定参数的值

for i=1:(n-1)

    Y(i)=V(i+1);

end

Y=Y';

E=[-C;ones(1,n-1)];

A=inv(E*E')*E*Y;

A=A';

a=A(1);b=A(2);

% 预测后续数据

F=[];F(1)=V(1);

for i=2:(n+1)

    F(i)=(V(1)-b/a)/exp(a*(i-1))+b/a ;

end

G=[];G(1)=V(1);

for i=2:(n+1)

    G(i)=F(i)-F(i-1); %得到预测出来的数据

end 

t1=1:10;

t2=1:11;

G(11)    %输出预测值

plot(t1,V,'o',t2,G)  %原始数据与预测数据的比较

grid

% set(handles.edit16,'string',num2str(G(11)));

% --- Executes on button press in pushbutton2.

function pushbutton2_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to pushbutton2 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

count=0;

global Vnew V;

    count=count+1;

    for i=1 :9

        V(i)=V(i+1);

    end

 %  V(10)=Vnew;    


 B=cumsum(V);  % 原始数据累加

n=length(V);

for i=1:(n-1)

    C(i)=(B(i)+B(i+1))/2;  % 生成累加矩阵

end

% 计算待定参数的值

Y=V;Y(1)=[];

Y=Y';

E=[-C;ones(1,n-1)];

A=inv(E*E')*E*Y;

A=A';

a=A(1);b=A(2);

% 预测后续数据

F=[];F(1)=V(1);

for i=2:(n+1)

    F(i)=(V(1)-b/a)/exp(a*(i-1))+b/a ;

end

G=[];G(1)=V(1);

for i=2:(n+1)

    G(i)=F(i)-F(i-1); %得到预测出来的数据

end 

t1=1+count:10+count;

t2=1+count:11+count;

% G(11)   %输出预测值

plot(t1,V,'o',t2,G)  %原始数据与预测数据的比较

grid

set(handles.edit16,'string',num2str(G(11)));

function edit16_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit16 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)

% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit16 as text

%        str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit16 as a double

% set(handles.edit10,'string',num2str(A(10)));

% set(handles.edit16,'string',G(11));

% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.

function edit16_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)

% hObject    handle to edit16 (see GCBO)

% eventdata  reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB

% handles    empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called

% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.

%       See ISPC and COMPUTER.

if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))

    set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');

end

3 仿真结果

4 参考文献

[1]王永华. 一例基于灰色模型的电力负荷预测方法的应用[J]. 电力学报, 2005, 20(3):3.

博主简介：擅长智能优化算法、神经网络预测、信号处理、元胞自动机、图像处理、路径规划、无人机等多种领域的Matlab仿真，相关matlab代码问题可私信交流。

部分理论引用网络文献，若有侵权联系博主删除。

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