本文原载于 《The Economist》 

译者：邓小雪 & 高浦铭 & 沈园园 

校对：伍豪

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IN A classroom in Seoul a throng of teenagers sit hunched over their desks. In total silence, they flick through a past exam paper. Stacks of brightly coloured textbooks are close to hand. Study begins at 8am and ends at 4.30pm, but some will not go home until 10pm. Like hundreds of thousands of South Koreans, they are preparing for the suneung, the multiple-choice test that will largely determine whether they go to a good university or a bad one, or to university at all.

在首尔的一间教室里，一群青少年窝在课桌前，在一片沉默中翻阅着一张发下来的考卷，手边还堆着一摞用彩笔标出重点的教材。学习时间是从早上8点到下午4点半，但有些人直到晚上10点才回家。和成千上万韩国人一样，他们在准备suneung，即韩国高考——这个选择题为主的考试将很大程度上决定他们能否上大学，以及能否上个好大学。

Suneung 大学修学能力试验。大学修学能力试验，又叫韩国高考或南韩高考，是南韩每年一度的学业水平测试，题型大多为客观题。1994年正式公开化，考试在每年11月第二或第三个礼拜四举行。

Over the course of a single generation in South Korea, degrees have become close to ubiquitous. Seventy per cent of pupils who graduate from the country’s secondary schools now go straight to university, and a similar share of 25- to 34-year-olds hold degrees, up from 37% in 2000. Students scramble to gain admittance to the most prestigious institutions, with exam preparation starting ever younger. Sought-after private nurseries in Seoul have long waiting lists.

仅仅过了一代人，学历的重要性就已经成为韩国人的共识。如今70%的中学毕业生直接进入大学。2000年时，25-34岁年龄段中拥有本科学历的人只占37%，而现在占比也已将近70%。学生们为了进入最知名的学府挤破脑袋，开始准备考试的时间也越来越早。首尔人排着长队希望能把孩子送入受欢迎的托儿所。

South Korea is an extreme case. But other countries, too, have seen a big rise in the share of young people with degrees. In the OECD club of 35 countries, 43% of 25- to 34-year-olds now have degrees. In America the figure is 48%.

韩国的例子比较极端。但在其他国家，年轻人拥有本科学历的比例也有很大提升。经合组织35个成员国中，25-34岁年龄段中有43%拥有本科学历，而美国这一比例则达到48%。

Between 1995 and 2014 government spending on higher education in the OECD rose from 0.9% of GDP to 1.1%, while private spending rose from 1.2% to 1.5%. As government subsidies for tuition fees flow through to institutions they have helped inflate costs. Since 1990 fees for American students who do not get scholarships or bursaries have risen twice as fast as overall inflation.

在1995至2014年期间，经合组织成员国政府在高等教育上的支出从0.9%上升至1.1%，同时个人支出从1.2%上升至1.5%。政府补贴的学费进入大学机构，也推升了教育成本。自1990年以来，对于没有取得奖学金或助学金的美国学生，他们的学费比平均通胀率增加了两倍。

bursary noun /ˈbɜːsəri/an amount of money that is given to somebody so that they can study, usually at a college or university 助学金（在英国，bursary指的是助学金，一般来自发展中国家，或其他能拿出经济证明家庭状况不大理想者，都可以申请。而scholarship则是真正的奖学金，需要学术成绩优异，加上本身是有开设xx scholarship给予中国学生的，才能申请。）

Policymakers regard it as obvious that sending more young people to university will boost economic growth and social mobility. Both notions are intuitively appealing. Better-educated people should surely be more likely to come up with productivity-boosting innovations. As technological change makes new demands of workers, it seems plausible that more will need to be well-educated. And a degree is an obvious way for bright youngsters from poor families to prove their abilities.

决策者认为，越多年轻人进入大学，就越有利于经济和社会流动性的增长。这两个观点乍看之下很有道理。人们受教育越高，就越有可能做出创新提高生产效率。当技术升级需要新的工人时，人们的教育程度貌似也应该随之提高。对于贫困家庭出身的年轻人来说，学历是能够证明自身能力的一个直接表现。

But comparisons between countries provide little evidence of these links. Richer countries have more graduates, but that could be because there is more money to spare, and less urgency to start earning. Rich economies grow more slowly, but that is probably because they have fewer easy ways to raise productivity, not because education depresses their growth.

然而，通过不同国家的对比，两者之间的联系缺乏依据。发达国家有更多大学毕业生，可能是因为人们手头富裕，所以毕业之后马上开始挣钱的紧迫性不强。发达经济体增长缓慢，可能是因为生产率已经处于高位，进一步提升越来越困难，而不是因为教育阻碍了经济增长。

A truth universities acknowledged

大学不得不承认的真相

The main piece of evidence cited by policymakers is the “graduate premium”—the difference between the average earnings of someone with a degree and someone with no more than a secondary-school education, after accounting for fees and the income forgone while studying. This gap is often expressed as the “return on investment” in higher education, or the annualised boost to lifetime earnings from gaining a degree. Research by the New York Federal Reserve shows that the return on investment in higher education soared between 1980 and 2000 in America, before levelling off at around 15% a year. In other words, an investment equal to the cost of tuition and earnings forgone while studying would have to earn 15% annual interest before it matched the average value over a working life of gaining a degree.

决策者最常用的一个论据就是“毕业生增值”——在计算过教育费用和因上学而损失的收入之后，比较大学及以上学历和中学以下学历人群之间的平均收入差异。这一差异经常被用来表示高等教育的“投资回报率”，或自取得学历之后终生收入的年度增长。纽约联储的研究报告表示，美国高等教育的年投资回报率在1980年至2000年期间飙升，然后稳定在15%左右。换句话说，如果把大学教育看作一项投资，学费及因上学损失收入之和为投资本金，那么这一投资在工作中带来的年均收益将达15%。

The World Bank has produced estimates of this return for 139 economies. It varies from place to place, but is substantial everywhere. The Economist’s analysis of the data finds that returns are linked to the share of people with degrees, and the range of earnings. Returns in Britain and Germany are similar to those in America. In sub-Saharan Africa, where degrees are scarce and the least-educated workers earn little, they are around 21% a year. In Scandinavia, where wages are less unequal and two-fifths of adults have degrees, they are around 9%.

世界银行在评估了139个经济体后得出了这一收益率。各个地方有所不同，但本质相似。《经济学人》通过分析数据后发现，收益率与拥有本科学历的人口占比以及收入水平有关。英国和德国的收益率与美国相近。在撒哈拉以南的非洲，大学学历稀缺，教育水平越低则挣得越少，所以年收益率能达到约21%。斯堪的纳维亚半岛由于人们工资差异不大且五分之二的成年人拥有本科学历，收益率则在9%左右。

But as a guide to school-leavers considering going to university—and to policymakers considering expanding access to higher education—the graduate premium is flawed. Even within countries the average conceals wide differences. Most students know that a degree in mathematics or finance is likely to be more lucrative than one in music or social work. What fewer realise is that the graduate premium overstates the financial benefit of embarking on a degree if their school grades barely qualify them for entry, no matter what they study.

但是对于考虑进入大学深造的高中毕业生和考虑扩大高等教育覆盖面的政策制定者来说，拿“毕业生增值”（the graduate premium）作为参考指标是有缺陷的。即使仅比较各国内部的状况，我们都可以发现巨大的差异，但这一差异被统计的平均值掩盖了。大多数学生都知道拥有一个数学或金融学位比一个音乐或社会工作学位赚钱的机会更大。但很少有人意识到的是，无论什么专业，对于成绩只是勉强达到录取线的学生来说，“毕业生增值”显然过分夸大了大学学位能够带来的经济收益。

In a comparison of the earnings of people with degrees and people without them, those who start university but do not finish are lumped in with those who never started, even though they, too, will have paid fees and missed out on earnings. Their numbers are considerable. In America 40% of college students fail to graduate with four-year degrees within six years of enrolling. Drop-out rates across the developed world average around 30%. It is the students admitted with the lowest grades who are least likely to graduate.

在一项有学位和没有学位人的收入情况比较中，那些进了大学却未能毕业的人，尽管他们支付了学费，学习期间也没有工作收入，但他们的收入和没被大学录取的人差不多。这部分人的数量相当巨大。在美国,40%的大学生未能在入学6年内拿到四年制学位。发达国家的平均辍学率在30%左右。恰恰是那些以最低成绩被录取的人最有可能毕不了业。

Including dropouts when calculating the returns to going to university makes a big difference. In a new book, “The Case Against Education”, Bryan Caplan of George Mason University argues that the low graduation rates of marginal students, and the fact that, for a given level of qualification, cleverer people tend to earn more, mean that the return on a four-year degree in America ranges from 6.5% for excellent students to just 1% for the weakest ones.

计算上大学回报率时把辍学生纳入考量会有很大的不同。乔治梅森大学的布莱恩·凯普兰（Bryan Caplan）在新书《反对教育的案例》（“The Case Against Education”）中认为，由于边缘学生的低毕业率以及同等条件下聪明的人挣得更多， 美国四年制大学学位的回报率不等，优等生可达6.5%，而差生仅为1%。

Part of that difference is because the weakest students attend the worst universities, where drop-out rates are highest. When they make it into better institutions, the returns may be higher. In a study published in 2014 Seth Zimmerman of the University of Chicago compared the earnings of school-leavers in Florida whose grades were close to the minimum for admission to a good state university. Those just above the cut-off were much more likely than those just below to start courses in good institutions. They graduated at a rate similar to that of the broader student population. They went on to earn considerably more than those just below the cut-off, and their return on investment was substantial.

个中差异部分源于基础最薄弱的学生进了最差的大学（辍学率最高）。如果他们进入好一点的学校可能会获得更高的回报。芝加哥大学的赛斯·齐默尔曼（Seth Zimmerman）2014年发表的一项研究比较了佛罗里达州高中毕业生的收入。这些学生的成绩都在优质州立大学录取分数线上下。比起那些在恰好低于优质州立大学录取分数线的学生，那些刚过线的学生更有可能在好的大学里学习。他们的毕业率与所录大学整体毕业率相似。毕业后，他们的工作收入也远高于那些恰好低于优质州立大学录取分数线的同学。由此可见，他们“教育投资”的回报非常可观。

Overstating the graduate premium is not the only reason policymakers overestimate the wider benefits of increasing the share of young people who go to university. The usual way to calculate the social returns of higher education is to sum up all the graduate premiums and subtract any public subsidies. But degrees are in part a way to access a “positional good” that benefits one person at the expense of another. Part of the premium comes from gaining an advantage over others in the competition for a good job, rather than the acquisition of productivity-boosting skills and knowledge. A complete calculation would include not just gains to graduates, but losses to non-graduates.

除了“毕业生增值”数据的误导，还有其他因素导致政策制定者高估大学入学率提高的好处。计算高等教育的社会回报率，通常的方法是所有的毕业生工资溢价之和减去公共补贴。但大学学位某种程度上是一种“位置商品”（positional good） ,使一个人受益的同时牺牲了另一个人的利益。部分增值来自于找工作时相对别人的竞争优势，而不是获得提高生产力的技能和知识。除了大学毕业生的收益, 完整的计算还应包括非大学毕业生的损失。

Degrees are also signalling devices. The premium includes the income-boosting effects of personal characteristics that are more likely to be held by those with degrees, not because they acquired them at university, but because they possessed them on admission.

大学学位就像一种信号。增值包括由个人特征带来的收入增长效应，这种特征更可能为大学毕业生所拥有。这往往不是因为他们在大学里获得了这些特征,而是因为他们拥有这些特征，才能被大学录取。

As degrees have become more common, their importance as signalling devices is rising. Recruiters, who pay none of the cost of jobseekers’ higher education, are increasingly able to demand degrees in order to screen out the least motivated or competent. A recent study by Joseph Fuller and Manjari Raman of Harvard Business School found that companies routinely require applicants to have degrees, even though only a minority of those already working in the role have them. This increases the graduate premium—but by punishing non-graduates rather than boosting the absolute returns to degrees.

随着学位日益普及,其作为一种信号的重要性也随之凸显。招聘人员虽然没有为求职者高等教育上的投入花钱,但却越来越看重学位，以此作为衡量标准将那些缺乏上进心和不具备竞争力的求职者拒之门外。哈佛商学院的约瑟夫·富勒（Joseph Fuller）和孟佳瑞·拉曼（Manjari Raman）最近的一项研究表明,公司要求申请者拥有大学学历已经成为惯例,即使在职人员中大学毕业的只是少数。这就增加了“毕业生增值”（the graduate premium）——但这是因为非大学毕业生面临不利，而不是学位的绝对收益增加。

Analysis by The Economist of American census data finds that between 1970 and 2015 the share of workers aged 25-64 with at least a bachelor’s degree increased in 256 out of 265 occupations (see previous page). Some of these are intellectually demanding jobs that changed a lot over that period, such as aerospace engineer or statistician. Others are non-graduate jobs such as waiting tables. Sixteen percent of waiters now have degrees—presumably, in most cases, because they could not find a graduate job. But other jobs that are mostly done by graduates, such as journalism, nursing and teaching in primary schools, used to require only shorter training, often received while working. Today, having a degree is usually an entry requirement.

《经济学人》的人口普查数据分析显示，从1970年至2015年，全美265个行业中，有256个行业呈职工学历上升趋势——年龄在25至64岁间并且至少拥有本科学历的从业者越来越多。在这45年间，脑力工作者（比如航天工程师与统计学家）所从事的行业变化显著。而其他工作，例如服务员，则不要求本科学历。如今，16%的服务员都有本科学历，他们中的大多数可能是因为找不到与学历对应的工作。在过去，记者、护士、小学教师这些职业大多只要求从业者在工作实习中接受短期培训，便可上岗。但是，现在这些行业的从业人员大多都有本科学历。学士学位已是当下大多行业的就职门槛。

The Economist has produced a measure of over-education by defining a graduate job as one which was staffed mostly by degree-holders in 1970. We find that just 35% of graduates work in such occupations today, down from 51% 45 years ago. Judging by job titles alone, 26.5m workers in America—two-thirds of those with degrees—are doing work that was mostly done by non-graduates a half-century ago.

如果在1970年，某职业的从业者大部分都拥有本科及以上学历，那我们就把这个职业定义为 “大学生职业”。现在我们用“大学生职业”这个指标来衡量教育过度现象，结果发现，45年前有51%的毕业生能找到一份“大学生职业”，但今天仅有35%的毕业生能找到我们之前所定义的“大学生职业”。如今全美有两千六百五十万劳动力从事着“非大学生职业”，而其中有三分之二的人拥有大学学历。

That calculation exaggerates the trend.

数据夸大趋势

Advances in technology have doubtless made some of these jobs more demanding. But not all of them, at least judging by pay. We find only a weak link between higher shares of graduates in an occupation and higher salaries (see chart 2). For around half of the occupations that employ higher shares of graduates now than a half-century ago, real wages have fallen. 

随着科技的进步，一些工作的从业要求变得越来越高。但如果用收入水平来衡量一个岗位的“高端程度”，那会发现并非所有的工作岗位都更高端了。我们发现，一份工作的收入水平与从业者的学历水平仅有微弱的相关性（见图2）。在近一半的工作岗位中，虽然相比于半个世纪前有越来越多的从业者拥有大学学历，但实际工资（译者注：剔除通胀影响后）反而下降了。

Andreas Schleicher, the head of education research at the OECD, reckons that “countries have skills shortages, not degree shortages”. The way universities have come to monopolize higher education, he says, is a problem in part because universities do not suit all kinds of learners. And university dropouts tend to see little in the way of financial benefit from the part of their course that they have finished.

安德利亚斯施莱克尔是经合组织教育研究方面的负责人，他认为，有文凭的人并不稀缺，各国所欠缺的其实是高技能劳动力。他补充说，大学垄断高等教育会带来麻烦，这在某种程度上是因为大学教育并非适合于所有人。对于大学肄业生来说，他们很难通过大学时期所修的课程来获得经济上的回报。

One promising development is that of “micro-credentials” or “nano-degrees”— short vocational courses, often in computing and IT. Udacity, an online education company, offers a variety, including one in self-driving cars approved by Uber and Mercedes-Benz, and another on digital marketing approved by Facebook and Google. EdX, a collaboration between MIT, Harvard and other leading universities, offers similar courses free. Students can take exams to prove their mastery of the material for a few hundred dollars.

名为“微观证书”和“微学位”的网课在短期职业培训领域已取得进展，授课内容主要集中在计算机学与信息技术。优达学城（Udacity）是一家在线教育机构，它的在线课程种类颇多，包括了优步（Uber）与梅赛德斯奔驰（Mercedes-Benz）两家公司联手打造的无人驾驶汽车课程，以及脸谱与谷歌共同提供的数字化营销课。edX是麻省理工、哈佛与其他顶尖大学共同创建的教育平台，它提供类似的免费课程。学生可以花几百美元来参加考试，以证明他们在某一领域具有扎实的功底。

Boot campus 

大学不再是“香饽饽”

For now, such courses are mostly add-ons to degrees, rather than replacements. Three-quarters of edX’s students already had a bachelor’s degree upon enrolling. But the collaboration with sought-after employers makes it more plausible that they could eventually become established as a stand-alone testament to a job applicant’s worth.

目前，这些在线课程大多起到锦上添花的作用，并不能取代学历。四分之三的edX网课注册学员已有学士学位。然而，通过与就业市场上广受欢迎的公司合作，此平台上的网课可能最终成为体现应聘者能力的又一证明。

In the meantime the decision not to go to university remains risky, even though many graduates will end up doing work that used to be done by non-graduates—or struggle to find a job at all. Around half of unemployed South Koreans now have degrees. For them, the very concept of a “graduate premium” may seem a mockery. Kim Hyang Suk, a recruiter in South Korea, says that half the applicants for customer-service jobs at her firm are graduates, even though only a secondary-school education is specified.

许多大学生最终从事于非大学毕业生就可以胜任的工作，还有一些根本找不到工作，但同时，不上大学仍然是有风险的。韩国近一半的待业者都有大学学历。对他们来说，“大学生是稀缺人才”这一观念是极其可笑的。朴香淑是一家公司的招聘官，她谈到，应聘他们公司客服领域的求职者有一半是大学生，虽然这些职位只要求中学学历。

She would prefer school-leavers with experience, says Ms Kim, to inexperienced graduates whom she will have to train. She is not looking for swots, but people who are “engaging, good on the phone”. But when few employers are this open-minded, most young people will want a degree. It may not boost their earnings as much as they had hoped, but without one, they will probably fare even worse.

相比于经验不足大学毕业生，朴女士更青睐于有经验的中学毕业生，招收后者，也省去了入职培训。她要的不是书呆子，而是能在客服电话中吸引客户能说会道的员工。然而，这样开明的雇主在韩国实属罕见，所以大部分年轻人仍然想拥有学历。虽然一张学位证书所带来的收入增长可能达不到年轻人的预期要求，但要是没有大学学位，他们很有可能面临更糟糕的就业前景。

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