chapter 3
What Is Truth?真理是什么

For hundreds of years, philosophers battled over whether “truth” exists. The argument usually concerned Truth with a capital T, a kind of complete record of whatever was, is, or will be, error-proof, beyond doubt and dispute, a final test of the rightness or wrongness of people’s ideas and theories. 数百年来，哲学家们一直争论是否存在“真理”。这种辩论通常关注（大写的）绝对真理，即一种对过去、现在或将来是什么的不会出错、不必怀疑和争执的完整记录，一种对人们思想和理论之对或错的最终检验。

Those who accepted the existence of this Truth believed it was a spiritual reality, not a physical one. That is, it was not a celestial ledger or file drawer—yet it was beyond time and space. It was considered an understanding among the gods, or an idea in the mind of God, or simply the sum total of Reality. Could humans ever come to know Truth? Some said, no, never. Others said, yes but only in the afterlife. Still others said that the wisest and best of humans could catch glimpses of it and that the rest of humanity could learn about it through these special ones. 承认这种绝对真理存在的那些人认为，它是一种精神实在而不是物理实在。这就是说，它不是一段优质横木或文件抽屉——而是超越时空的。它被认为是对神灵的领悟，或是上帝头脑中的思想，或仅是所有实在的总和。人究竟能否认识绝对真理？一些人说不能，永远不能。另一些人说可以，但只有在来世。还有一些人说，虽睿智和最优越的人能瞥见它，而其他人则能通过这些特殊的人来了解它。
Spiritual [ˈspɪrɪtʃuəl] adj. 精神的; 心灵的; 高尚的，崇高的; 宗教的;
Celestial [səˈlestʃl] adj. 天的，天空的;
Ledger [ˈlɛdʒɚ] n. 分类账;

Those who rejected this notion of an awesome, all-embracing Truth argued that it was an empty notion. How could all reality be summed up that way? More important, what possible evidence could be offered in support of its existence? Many who reasoned this way dismissed the idea of Truth as wishful thinking, a kind of philosophical security blanket. A few went further and denied even the existence of truths (no capital). 否认这个令人敬畏、无所不包的绝对真理观念的那些人辩称它是一个空洞的观念。如何能以这种方式来总结所有的实在？更重要的是，能提供什么样的可能证据来支持这个真理的存在？许多这么想的人把绝对真理的理念当作一厢情愿的、一种哲学保护伞而予以否定。一些人走得更远，甚至否认普遍真理的存在。
Awesome [ˈɔsəm] adj. 令人敬畏的; 使人畏惧的; 可怕的; 极好的;
Dismissed [dɪs'mɪst] v. 解雇( dismiss的过去式和过去分词 ); （使击球员或球队）退场; 使退去; 驳回;

Our age has inherited the whole argument. The focus, however, has changed. It seldom concerns Truth anymore. Even if Truth does exist, it’s of little help to us in our world and our lives because it is beyond human understanding. Even many people of strong and rather conservative religious views no longer consider the question of Truth important to the understanding or practice of their faith. 我们的时代继承了这整个论点。但是，关注的焦点却发生了变化。它很少再关注绝对真理。即使的确存在绝对真理，它对我们的世界和生活也少有帮助，因为它超出了人类的理解。甚至许多持有强烈的和相当保守的宗教观点的人，也不再认为绝对真理的问题对他们信仰的理解或践行是重要的。
Inherited [ɪn'herɪtɪd] adj. 通过继承得到的，遗传的; 继承权的;

Still, the question of truth, or even truths, remains, and the position we take toward this question does have an important bearing on how we conduct our thinking and acting. Unfortunately, there is a good deal of murkiness and confusion about the concept. The rest of this chapter will attempt to shed light on it. 然而，（不是大写的）真理的问题仍然存在，并且我们对这个问题所持的立场的确对我们如何进行思考和行动具有重要的影响。不幸的是，对这个概念还有许多模糊和混乱之处。本章的其余部分将试图予以澄清。
Bearing [ˈberɪŋ] n. [机]轴承，支座; 关系; 方位; 态度，举止;
Murkiness ['mɜkɪnɪs] n. 阴暗; 混浊; 可疑; 黝暗;
【position 主语，does强调，have谓语】

It’s fashionable today to believe that truth is relative and subjective. “Everyone creates his or her own truth,” the saying goes, “and what is true for you may not be true for me.” The meaning of this statement goes far beyond “It’s a free country and I can believe what I want.” The claim means that whatever a person thinks is true because he or she thinks it is. Not surprisingly, to challenge another person’s view on an issue is considered bad form. “That’s my truth you’re talking about, Buster. Show a little respect.” 今天，把真理看作是相对和主观的，已是一种时尚。俗话说：“每个人创造他或她自己的真理，对你是真理也许对我并不是的”这句话的含义远远超出了“这是个自由的国度，我可以相信自己想要的”这种说法。于是，这个陈述就变成了任何一个人认为是真理的任何事情，都是因为他或她认为它是真理。毫不奇怪，质疑他人对某个问题的看法令人生厌。你们正在谈论的就是我的真理，小鬼，请给一点尊重。”

The implications of this notion are quite staggering, yet for some reason few people acknowledge them, and fewer still are interested in testing their reasonableness. One implication is that everyone is right and no one is wrong. In fact, no one can be wrong. (What an argument this would make against objective tests—true/false, multiple choice, and so on: “My answers can’t be wrong, professor. They’re my truth!”) Another is that everyone’s perception and memory work flawlessly, with never a blunder, glitch, or gaffe. And another is that no one adopts other people’s “truths.” The idea of creating truth rules out borrowing—if truth is intensely personal, each person’s truth must be unique. Let’s examine all these ideas more closely.
这个观念的含义相当令人惊愕，但由于某些原困，很少有人认识到这些含义，而且更少的人能有兴趣检验其合理性。一种含义是，每个人都对，无人是错的。事实上是无人有可能出错。（一种可反对客观检验——真实／虚假、多种选择等等的论辩：“教授，我的答案不可能错。它们是我的真理！”） 另一种含义就是，每个人的感知和记忆都是完美无瑕的，从不会出错、失灵或有过失。第三种含义就是无人采纳他人的“真理”。创造真理的想法排除了借用——如果真理完全是个人的，那每个人的真理必定是独特的。让我们更加仔细地考察这些观点。
staggering [ˈstæɡərɪŋ] adj. 难以置信的，令人震惊的; 蹒跚的; 犹豫的;
Flawlessly adv. 无瑕地，完美地;
Blunder [ˈblʌndɚ] vi. 犯错误; 踉踉跄跄地走; 无意中说出，漏嘴说出; 弄糟，弄错，做错，办错;
Glitch [ɡlɪtʃ] n. 小过失，差错;
Gaffe [ɡæf] n. 失礼，出丑;
intensely [ɪnˈtɛnslɪ] adv. 强烈地; 极度; 剧烈地;
rule out ：排除

Where Does It All Begin?
究竟始于何处？

The idea of creating our own truth without outside influence or assistance may sound reasonable if we focus only on our adulthood. The moment we consider our childhood, however, the idea becomes suspect, because in childhood we were all dependent in every sense:physically, emotionally, and intellectually. What we knew and believed about everything was what others told us. We asked questions—”Why, Mommy?” “Why, Daddy?” Our parents answered them. We accepted those answers and made them the foundation of our belief system, no matter how elaborate it would become in adulthood.
如果我们仅仅关注成年时期，那我们不受外界影响或帮助就创造真理的这种想法也许听起来就是合理的。但是，我们一考虑童年时期，这种观点就令人怀疑，因为我们在童年时期完全依赖于每一种感觉：在生理、感情和智力上的依赖。我们了解和相信的每件事都是别人告知我们的。我们提问——“为什么，妈妈？”“为什么，爸爸？”我们的父母作回答。我们接受这些答案，并将其作为我们信念体系的基石，无论在成年时期它会变得怎样复杂。
elaborate [ɪ'læbəret] adj. 精心制作的；详尽的；煞费苦心的

Relativists could, of course,claim that we leave all those early influences behind when we reach adulthood,but that denies the most fundamental principles of psychology. Here is how one writer explained the continuing influence of childhood experience:
当然，相对主义者可能声称，当我们步入成年时，会把所有这些早期影响抛在脑后，但是，这否认了最基本的心理学原理。下面是一位作者如何解释童年经验的持续影响：

We are told about the world before we see it. We imagine most things before we experience them. And those preconceptions, unless education has made us acutely aware, govern deeply the whole process of perception. They mark out certain objects as familiar or strange, emphasizing the difference, so that the slightly familiar is seen as very familiar, and the somewhat strange as sharply alien. They are aroused by small signs, which may vary from a true index to a vague analogy. Aroused, they flood fresh vision with older images, and project into the world what has been resurrected in memory.
我们在观察世界之前，都是被告知世界是怎样的。我们在体验大多数事情之前，总是先想象它们。除非教育使我们敏锐地意识到这一点，否则，这些先入之见深深地控制着整个感知过程。他们把某些物体标识为熟悉或陌生的，强调差异性，以致把稍微熟悉视为非常熟悉，把有点陌生视为迥然相异。从真实指标到模糊类比不等的各种小迹象都能引发这些先入之见。一旦发生，它们就用旧形象掩盖新视觉，并将其投射到被激活进入记忆的世界之中。
mark out规划，制定
vague [veɪg] adj. 模糊的；含糊的；不明确的；暧昧的
resurrect [rezə'rekt] vt. 使复活；复兴；挖出vi. 复活

You have heard the old saying"seeing is believing". The reverse— believingis seeing—is equally correct. To a greater or lesser extent, what we regard as our unique perspective bears the imprint of other people’s ideas and beliefs.
你听到过一句老话：“所见即所信。”反之也同样正确——所信即所见。在或多或少的程度上，我们视为自己独特视角的看法都承受着他人思想和信念的印记。
imprint [ɪm'prɪnt] n. 印记；痕迹；特征；版本说明

Imperfect Perception
不完善的感知

Is perception flawless? Hardly. For one thing, it is influenced by our desires, interests, and expectations: “From the outset perception is selective and tends to simplify the world around us. Memory continues and hastens the process.”For another, even within its limited focus, perception is often flawed. A college student who is positive that the textbook contains a certain statement answers an exam question with perfect confidence. Yet when the student gets the corrected test back and finds the question marked wrong, then hurriedly flips open the book and examines the passage again, he or she may find it says something else entirely.
感知是否完美无缺？几乎不可能。一方面，它受到我们的欲望、兴趣和期望的影响：“感知从一开始就是选择性的，而且倾向于简化我们周围的世界。记忆持续并加速了此过程。“另外，即使在有限的焦点中，感知也往往是有缺陷的。一位大学生非常有信心的肯定教科书的某个陈述,然后回答一道测试题。然而，当学生得到批改后的问卷时，发现这道题被判为错误，匆忙翻开书，再次查看该段落时，他或她可能会发现它所说的完全不同。
Imperfect [ɪm'pɜːfɪkt] adj. 有缺点的；未完成的；半过去的；未完成时的n. 未完成体adv. 有瑕疵地；有缺点地
Perception pə'sepʃ(ə)n] n. 知觉；[生理] 感觉；看法；洞察力；获取
flawless ['flɔːləs] adj. 完美的；无瑕疵的；无裂缝的
outset n. 开始；开端
positive ['pɒzɪtɪv] adj. 积极的；[数] 正的，[医][化学] 阳性的；确定的，肯定的；实际的，真实的；绝对的n. 正数；[摄] 正片
desires [dɪ'zaɪr] n. 欲望；心愿（desire的复数形式）v. 向往（desire的单三形式）
expectations [ˌekspekˈteɪʃnz] n. [数] 期望；预期；[数] 期望值（expectation的复数形式）
hasten ['heɪs(ə)n] vt. 加速；使赶紧；催促vi. 赶快；急忙
flawed [flɔd] adj. 有缺陷的；有瑕疵的；有裂纹的
confidence ['kɒnfɪd(ə)ns] n. 信心；信任；秘密adj. （美）诈骗的；骗得信任的
flip [flɪp] vt. 掷；轻击vi. 用指轻弹；蹦跳adj. 无礼的；轻率的n. 弹；筋斗
flip open翻盖式开启
entirely [ɪn'taɪəlɪ; en-] adv. 完全地，彻底地

Moviegoers in the 1930s and 1940s were thrilled as Tarzan uttered his famous yell and swung through the treetops to catch the villain. Tell them that Tarzan never made that yell and they’ll say, “False, we heard it with our own ears.” And yet it’s not false. According to one of the men who first played the role of Tarzan, Buster Crabbe, that yell was dubbed into the films in the studio. It was a blend of three voices—a soprano’s, a baritone’s, and a hog caller’s.
在三十年代和四十年代的常看电影的人在看到人猿泰山发出他著名的吼叫，并荡过树梢抓住坏人时都非常兴奋。如果告诉他们泰山从来没有发出这样的吼叫，他们会说：“错了，我们用自己的耳朵听到了。”但这不对。据其中首批扮演泰山的演员之一伯斯特·克拉布，吼叫是配音到电影中的。 这其中混合的三种声音一个女高音、一个男中音和一个扮猪叫人。
Moviegoers常看电影的人（moviegoer的名词复数）
thrilled [θrɪld] adj. 非常兴奋的；极为激动的v. 激动（thrill的过去式）；[医] 震颤
Tarzan ['tɑ:zæn; -zən] n. 泰山（美国影片人猿泰山的主人公）；健壮、灵活的男子
utter ['ʌtə] vt. 发出，表达；发射adj. 完全的；彻底的；无条件的n. (Utter)人名；(德、芬)乌特
villain ['vɪlən] n. 坏人，恶棍；戏剧、小说中的反派角色；顽童；罪犯n. (Villain)人名；(法)维兰
yell [jɛl] vi. 大叫，叫喊n. 喊声，叫声vt. 喊叫着说
dub [dʌb] vt. 配音；轻点；打击；授予称号n. 笨蛋；鼓声n. (Dub)人名；(英、俄、捷、匈)杜布；(法)迪布
blend [blend] vt. 混合vi. 混合；协调n. 混合；掺合物
soprano [sə'prɑːnəʊ] n. 女高音；最高音部；女高音歌手adj. 女高音的；童声高音的n. (Soprano)人名；(意)索普拉诺
baritone ['bærɪtəʊn] n. 男中音；男中音歌手adj. 男中音的
hog [hɒg] n. 猪，象猪般的人；贪婪者t. 使拱起vi. 拱起n. (Hog)人名；(法)奥格
caller ['kɔːlə] n. 访客；[通信] 呼叫者；打电话者；召集员adj. 新鲜的n. (Caller)人名；(西)卡列尔

At least a dozen times every weekend from September to January, the imperfection of human observation is underlined by that marvel of technology, the instant replay. Is there a football fan anywhere who doesn’t occasionally scream, “Bad call!” only to be proved wrong a moment later? We can be sure enough to bet a week’s wages that the pass receiver’s feet came down inbounds or that the running back’s knee hit the ground before the ball came loose. And then the replay shows us how erroneous our initial perception was.
从9月到次年1月，每个周末至少有十几次通过瞬间回放这种令人惊奇的技术凸显出人类观察的不完善。 有没有球迷在叫嚷着“黑哨”片刻后就被证明是错误的？我们可以肯定打赌一周的工资说，在求出手之前接球员的脚已经在界内或跑锋膝盖已经触地。然而瞬间回放向我展示最初的感知是错误的。
dozen ['dʌz(ə)n] n. 十二个，一打adj. 一打的
weekend [wiːkˈɛnd] n. 周末，周末休假；周末聚会adj. 周末的，周末用的vi. 度周末
underlined ['ʌndɚˌlaɪnd] adj. 下划线的
marvel ['mɑːv(ə)l] n. 奇迹vt. 对…感到惊异vi. 感到惊讶n. (Marvel)人名；(英)马弗尔；漫威漫画
instant ['ɪnst(ə)nt] adj. 立即的；紧急的；紧迫的n. 瞬间；立即；片刻
occasionally [əˈkeɪʒnəli] adv. 偶尔；间或
inbounds [in'baundz] adj. 发边线球的
erroneous [ɪ'rəʊnɪəs; e-] adj. 错误的；不正确的

The vagaries of perception have long been noted by those who deal with human testimony—notably, trial lawyers, police officers, and psychologists. It is well established that a number of factors can make us see and hear inaccurately. Darkness, cloudy conditions, or distance from what we are witnessing may obscure our vision. We may be distracted at a crucial moment. If we are tired or in the grip of powerful emotions such as fear or anger, our normal perceptiveness may be significantly diminished. Also, perception may be intermingled with interpretation—the expectation that an event will unfold in a certain way may color our perception of the way the event actually unfolds. Loyalty and affection toward the people or things involved may distort our vision as well. If someone we dislike speaks in a loud voice and is animated, we may regard that person as showing off to get attention. But if a friend behaves in the same way, we may regard him or her as vivacious and extroverted.
处理人的证词的人，尤其是出庭律师、警察和心理学家，很久以前就已经注意到人的感知的特别。许多因素已经确定可以导致我们视觉、听觉不准确。黑暗、多云天气或我们离目标的距离远都可能模糊我们的视觉。我们可能会在关键时刻分心。如果我们厌倦或被强大情绪（如恐惧或愤怒）控制，我们的正常感知力可能会大大减弱。此外，感知可能与解释交织–对事件的期望可能影响我们对事件实际进展方式的感知。对所涉及的人或事物的忠诚和热爱也会扭曲我们的视觉。如果我们不喜欢的人神气活现大声说话，我们可能会认为这个人是故意炫耀以引起注意。 但是，如果一个朋友以同样的方式行事，那我们可能认为他或她是活泼的和外向的。
vagaries ['veigəriz] n. 异常行为（vagary的复数形式）；奇特
testimony ['testɪmənɪ] n. [法] 证词，证言；证据
notably ['nəʊtəblɪ] adv. 显著地；尤其
trial lawyer专门出庭辩护的律师
psychologists [sai'kɔledʒist] n. [心理] 心理学家（psychologist的复数形式）
inaccurately [in'ækjuritli] adv. 不准确地；不正确地
obscure [əb'skjʊə] adj. 昏暗的，朦胧的；晦涩的，不清楚的；隐蔽的；不著名的，无名的vt. 使…模糊不清，掩盖；隐藏；使难理解n. 某种模糊的或不清楚的东西
distracted [dɪ'stræktɪd] adj. 心烦意乱的；思想不集中的v. 分心（distract的过去式）
crucial ['kruːʃ(ə)l] adj. 重要的；决定性的；定局的；决断的
grip grɪp] n. 紧握；柄；支配；握拍方式；拍柄绷带vt. 紧握；夹紧vi. 抓住n. (Grip)人名；(英、瑞典)格里普
perceptiveness [,pə:sep'tivnis] n. 洞察力；感知力；直觉
significantly [sɪg'nɪfɪk(ə)ntlɪ] adv. 显著地；相当数量地
intermingle [ɪntə'mɪŋg(ə)l] vt. 使混合；使搀和vi. 混合；掺杂
distort [dɪ'stɔːt] vt. 扭曲；使失真；曲解vi. 扭曲；变形
animated ['ænɪmeɪtɪd] adj. 活生生的；活泼的；愉快的vt. 使…有生气（animate的过去式）
vivacious [vɪ'veɪʃəs; vaɪ-] adj. 活泼的；快活的；有生气的
extroverted ['ekstrəʊvɜːtɪd] adj. 性格外向的；外向性的；喜社交的
【perception may be intermingled with interpretation—the expectation that an event will unfold in a certain way may color our perception of the way the event actually unfolds.】
perception主语，intermingle谓语，interpretation宾语，--后是定语从句，从句里面， expectation是主语，color是谓语 ,perception是宾语。

Imperfect Memory
不完善的记忆

Even when our perception is initially flawless, our memory often distorts the data. We forget details, and when later attempting to recall what happened we resort to imagination to fill in the blanks. Though we may at first be aware that such a process of reconstruction is occurring, this awareness soon fades, and we come to believe we are remembering the original perception. As psychologist William James explained,
即使我们的感知最初是正确无误的，我们的记忆也经常扭曲它。我们忘记了细节，当后来试图回想发生什么时，我们就求助想象来填充这些空白。虽然我们可能最初意识到这样一种重建过程在发生，但这种意识很快就消失了，我们开始相信自己记起来的正是最初的感知。正如心理学家威 廉-詹姆斯( William Jams)所解释的：

The most frequent source of false memory is the accounts we give to others of our experiences. Such acts we almost always make more simple and more interesting than the truth. We quote what we should have said or done rather than what we really said or did; and in the first telling we may be fully aware of the distinction, but [before] long the fiction expels the reality from memory and [replaces it]. We think of what we wish had happened, of possible [interpretations] of acts, and soon we are unable to distinguish between things that actually happened and our own thoughts about what might have occurred. Our wishes, hopes, and sometimes fears are the controlling factor.3 虚假记忆最常兄的来源是我们向他人对自己的经验所作的解释。对这样的行为我们几乎总是做得比真实情况更简单、更有趣。我们引用我们应该说和应该做的，而不是我们实际说或实际做的；在第一讲述中，我们也许会充分意识到这种区别，但不久[以 后]，虚构就把真实从记忆中驱避出去并[取代了它]。我们以为自己所希望的事情已经发生，并考虑行为的可能[解释]，很快，我们 就不能把实际发生的与我们关于可能发生的事情的想法区别开来。我们的愿望、期望，有时还有恐惧都是控制的因素。

As if this weren’t enough, memory is vulnerable to contamination from outside the mind. Memory expert Elizabeth Loftus showed children a one-minute film and then asked, “Did you see a bear?” or “Did you see a boat?” They remembered seeing them, even though no bears or boats were in the film. She also showed adults a film of an auto accident and then asked them about it. By using the word “smash” instead of “hit,” she was able to change the viewers’ estimate of the cars’ speed and to create a memory of broken glass where there was none. In another experiment, Loftus asked the parents of college students to describe some events from their sons’ and daughters’ childhoods. Then she talked with each student about those events but added a fake event or two. With only slight coaxing, the students “remembered” the fake events, were able to elaborate on the details, and in some cases refused to believe they were fake even when Loftus explained what she had done.
似乎这还不够，记忆还易受自己头脑以外的情事所污染。记忆研究专家 伊丽莎白·洛夫特斯(Elizaheth Loftus)给孩子们看了一分钟的短片并且问他们：“你们看见熊了吗？”或者“你们看见船了吗？”。孩子们说记得看见过，即使影片中并没有熊或者船。她还向成年人展示了一场汽车事故的影片，然后问他们，通过使用“粉碎”而不是“打击”这个词，她能够改变观众对汽车速度的估计，并创造一个打碎玻璃碎片的记忆。在另外一个实验中，杰出的记忆研究专家 伊丽莎白·洛夫特斯(Elizaheth Loftus)要求大学生的父母描述自己儿女童 年时期的一些事情。然后她跟每个学生谈论这些事，但同时添加一两件捏 造的事件。仅稍微哄骗一下，学生就“记住了”这些捏造的事件，并能阐述细节，而且在某些情况下，即使洛夫特斯解释自己所做的事情，他们也拒不相信它们是捏造的。

Deficient Information
有缺陷的信息

The quality of a belief depends to a considerable extent on the quality of the information that backs it up. Because it’s a big world and reality has many faces, it’s easy for us to be misinformed. How many drivers take the wrong turn because of faulty directions? How many people get on the wrong bus or train? How many car owners put too much or too little air in their tires on the advice of some service station attendant? And, if misinformation is common enough in such relatively simple matters, how much more common is it in complex matters like law and medicine and government and religion?
信念的质量在很大程度上取决于支持它的信息的质量。因为它是一个庞大的世界，现实有很多种面孔，我们很容易被误导。有多少人上错巴士或火车？有多少车主在服务站工作人员的建议下给车胎打多了气或打少了气？而且，如果误导信息在如此简单的事情中常见，那么它要在复杂事情例如法律、医药、政府和宗教中会多普遍？
deficient [dɪ'fɪʃ(ə)nt] adj. 不足的；有缺陷的；不充分的
considerable [kən'sɪd(ə)rəb(ə)l] adj. 相当大的；重要的，值得考虑的
extent [ɪk'stent; ek-] n. 程度；范围；长度
misinform [mɪsɪn'fɔːm] vt. 误传；提供错误消息
matters ['mætəz] n. 事项；事件；事态；情事（matter的复数）n. (Matters)人名；(英)马特斯
religion [rɪ'lɪdʒ(ə)n] n. 宗教；宗教信仰

It’s possible, of course, to devote a lifetime of study to a particular field. But not even those who make that kind of commitment can know everything about their subject. Things keep happening too fast. They occur whether we’re watching or not. There’s no way to turn them off when we take a coffee break or go to the bathroom. The college student who hasn’t been home in three months may be able to picture the neighbor’s elm tree vividly, yet it may have been cut down two months ago. The soldier may have total recall of his hometown—every sight and sound and smell—and return home to find half of Main Street sacrificed to urban renewal, the old high school hangout closed, and a new car in his best friend’s driveway.
当然，对一个特定领域的研究可能需要投入一生的学习。但是，即使这样的人也无法了解自己学科所有事情。事情一直在变化，无论我们是否看都会发生。当我们喝咖啡小憩或去洗手间时，并没有办法使其终止。离家三个月的大学生可能会生动地描绘邻居的榆树，但它可能两个月前前已经被砍掉了。士兵可能完整回忆起自己的家乡一切，每一个景象、声和气味，回到家才发现一半主街道的已经比城市化改变，老中学已经关闭，有一辆新车停止在他最好的朋友门前车道上。
devote [dɪ'vəʊt] vt. 致力于；奉献
commitment [kə'mɪtm(ə)nt] n. 承诺，保证；委托；承担义务；献身
occur [ə'kɜː] vi. 发生；出现；存在
elm [elm] n. [林] 榆树；榆木n. (Elm)人名；(英、法、德、丹、瑞典)埃尔姆adj. 榆树的；榆木的
vividly adv. 生动地；强烈地
sacrificed牺牲，献出（ sacrifice的过去式和过去分词 ）
urban ['ɜːb(ə)n] adj. 城市的；住在都市的n. (Urban)人名；(西)乌尔万；(斯洛伐)乌尔班；(德、俄、罗、匈、塞、波、捷、瑞典、意) 乌尔班；(英)厄本；(法)于尔邦
renewal [rɪ'njuːəl] n. 更新，恢复；复兴；补充；革新；续借；重申
hangout ['hæŋaʊt] n. 巢穴，（流氓）住所vt. 故意泄露
Even the Wisest Can Err
即使最明智的人也会出错

So far, we’ve established that people can be mistaken in what they perceive and remember and that the information they receive can be faulty or incomplete. But these matters concern individuals. What of group judgment—the carefully analyzed observations of the best thinkers, the wisest men and women of the time? Is that record better?Happily, it is. But it, too, leaves a lot to be desired.
目前我们已经确认，人们在自己所感知和记忆的事情上有可能出错，他们所接收的信息可能是错误或不完整的。但是，这些事关涉到个人。然而，群体判断——当代最优秀的思想家们，最明智的男人和女人们的仔细分析观察——的情况又怎么样呢？其记录更好些吗？让人高兴的是，它是好些。但是，它也不尽如人意。
【 we’ve established that people can be mistaken in what they perceive and remember and that the information they receive can be faulty or incomplete.】
that people can be mistaken in what they perceive and remember,与 that the information they receive can be faulty or incomplete都是宾语从句。

All too often, what is taken as truth one day by the most respected minds is proved erroneous the next. You undoubtedly know of some examples. In the early seventeenth century, when Galileo suggested that the sun is the center of our solar system, he was charged with heresy, imprisoned, and pressured to renounce his error. The“truth” of that time, accepted by every scientist worthy of the name, was that the earth was the center of the solar system.
经常，最受人尊重的头脑在某日视为真理的事，在后来被证明是错误的。毫无疑问，你知道一些这样的例子。在17世纪早期，当伽利略(Galileo)认为太阳是我们太阳系的中心时，他被指控为异端，遭到监禁，并迫使其声明放弃自己的错误。那时被每个称得上伟大的科学家接受的“真理”：地球乃是太阳系的中心。

Here are some other examples you may not have heard about in which the “truth” turned out not to be true:
这里还有其他一些你也许没听说过的“真理”变成非真理的例子。

• For a long time surgeons used talc on the rubber gloves they wore while performing surgery. Then they discovered it could be poisonous. So they switched to starch, only to find that it, too, could have a toxic effect on surgical patients.
长期以来，外科医生在做手术时，把滑石粉涂在橡胶手套上。然后他们发现它可能有毒。于是，他们转向淀粉，不料却发现它可能对病人也有毒性作用。
only to find 结果却发现（表达出人意料或不愉快的意思）

• Film authorities were certain they were familiar with all the films the late Charlie Chaplin ever made. Then, in 1982, a previously unknown film was discovered in a British screen archive vault.
• 电影权威们确信熟悉已故的查理·卓别林(Charlie Chaplin)出演的所有电影。而在1982年，一部此前不为人知的电影在英国电影档案馆被发现。

• For hundreds of years historians believed that although the people of Pompeii had been trapped by the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in A.D. 79, the people of neighboring Herculaneum had escaped. Then the discovery of eighty bodies (and the hint of hundreds more) under the volcanic ash revealed that many from Herculaneum had also been trapped.
• 几百年来，历史学家认为庞培( Pompeii)人在公元79年的维苏威(Vesuvius)火山爆发中被埋没，而邻近的赫库兰尼姆(Herculaneum)届民则逃脱了。后来在火山灰下发现的80具尸体（以及暗示有数百人被埋）表明许多赫库兰尼姆人也被埋没。

• Your grandparents probably learned that there are eight planets in our solar system. Since Pluto was discovered in 1930, your parents and you learned there are nine. Then Joseph L.Brady of the University of California suggested there might be ten. But more recently Pluto was removed from the list.
• 你的祖父母可能知道我们的太阳系有8大行星。自1930年发现冥王星以来，你和父母知道有9大行星。但是，如果加利福尼亚大学约瑟夫·布雷迪(Joseph L．Brady)观察正确的话，你的孩子将知道有十大行星，可是最近，冥王星却从名单中剔除了。

• After morphine was used by doctors for some years as a pain killer, it was found to be addictive. The search began for a nonaddictive substitute. What was found to take its place?Heroin!
• 医生用吗啡做止痛药多年后，发现人对它有依赖性。于是搜寻没有依赖性的替代物。结果发现的替代物是什么呢？海洛因。

Truth Is Discovered, Not Created
真理是发现的，不是创造的

Let’s review what our evaluation has revealed. First, our ideas and beliefs are unavoidably influenced by other people’s, particularly in childhood. Second, perception and memory are imperfect. Third, our information can be inaccurate or incomplete. Add to this the fact, noted in Chapter 2, that some people’s thinking skills are woefully meager and/or ineffectively used, and the idea that “everyone creates his or her own truth” becomes laughable. We do create something, all right, but it is not truth. It is beliefs, ideas that we accept as true but that could easily be false.
让我们回顾一下我们的评估所揭示的内容。首先，我们的思想和信念不可避免地受到别人的影响，特别是在童年时期。第二，感知和记忆是不完美的。第三，我们的信息可能不准确或不完整。另外，在第二章中也提到，有些人的思维技能很不幸的贫乏且（或）被无效地使用，而且“每个人都创造自己的真理”的想法也让人感到可笑。我们确实创造了一些事情，没错，但它并不是真理。它是信念，即我们信以为真却可能错误的想法。
Truth [truːθ] n. 真理；事实；诚实；实质
evaluation [ɪˌvæljuˈeɪʃn] n. 评价；[审计] 评估；估价；求值
revealed [rɪ'vil] v. 透露（reveal的过去式）；显示
woefully ['wəufəli] adv. 悲伤地；不幸地；使人痛苦地
meager ['migɚ] adj. 贫乏的；瘦的n. 兆
ineffectively adv. 无效地；无用地；无能地
laughable ['lɑːfəb(ə)l] adj. 有趣的，可笑的

What, then, is the most reasonable view of truth? The truth about something is what is so about it—the facts in their exact arrangement and proportions. Our beliefs and assertions are true when they correspond to that reality and false when they do not.
那么，最合理的真理观是什么？关于某事的真理就是，它原本是什么-事实的准确位置及比例。我们的信念和主张在符合真实情况是正确的，不符合真实情况是错误的。
exact [ɪg'zækt; eg-] adj. 准确的，精密的；精确的vt. 要求；强求；急需vi. 勒索钱财
arrangement [ə'reɪn(d)ʒm(ə)nt] n. 布置；整理；准备
proportions [prə'pɔ:ʃəns] n. [数] 比例；大小（proportion的复数形式）
correspond [kɒrɪ'spɒnd] vi. 符合，一致；相应；通信

Did time run out before the basketball player got the shot off? How does gravity work? Who stole your hubcaps? Are there time/space limits to the universe? Who started the argument between you and your neighbor last weekend? Have you been working up to your potential in this course? To look for the truth in such matters is to look for the answer that fits the facts, the correct answer.
篮球运动员在跳投之前时间是否超时？重力如何作用？谁偷走你的汽车轮毂？宇宙有时间/空间限制吗？上个周末，你和你的邻居谁先开始争论？你在这门课程中激发了你的潜能吗？在这样的事情中寻找真相，是为了寻找符合事实的答案，即正确答案。
gravity ['grævɪtɪ] n. 重力，地心引力；严重性；庄严
hubcaps n. 轮毂；自以为了不起的人（hubcap的复数）
work up to逐渐达到；逐步发展
potential [pəˈtenʃl] n. 潜能；可能性；[电] 电势adj. 潜在的；可能的；势的
course [kɔːs] n. 科目；课程；过程；进程；道路；路线，航向；一道菜vt. 追赶；跑过vi. 指引航线；快跑

Truth is apprehended by discovery, a process that favors the curious and the diligent. Truth does not depend on our acknowledgment of it, nor is it in any way altered by our ignorance or transformed by our wishful thinking. King Tut’s tomb did not spring into existence when archaeologists dug it up; it was there waiting to be discovered. Art forgeries are not genuine when people are fooled and then fake when the deception is revealed. Cigarette smoking is not rendered harmless to our health because we would prefer it to be so.
真理是通过发现而被掌握的，发现是一个偏好好奇和勤奋的过程。真理并不取决于我们的承认，也不因为我们的无知而改变，也不因为我们一厢情愿而变化。当考古学家挖掘图特王墓时，它不会自己动手冒出来；它在那里等待被发现。艺术赝品不会在人们受骗时变成真货，也不会在骗局被揭穿时显示为假货。吸烟不会因为我们希望它们对健康无害就对我们健康无害。
apprehended [æprɪ'hend] vt. 理解；逮捕；忧虑vi. 理解；担心
favors ['fevɚz] n. 支持；帮忙（favor的复数）；好意v. 支持；喜欢；证实（favor的三单形式）n. (Favors)人名；(英)费沃斯
curious ['kjʊərɪəs] adj. 好奇的，有求知欲的；古怪的；爱挑剔的
diligent ['dɪlɪdʒ(ə)nt] adj. 勤勉的；用功的，费尽心血的n. (Diligent)人名；(法)迪利让
depend on取决于；依赖；依靠
acknowledgment [ək'nɒlɪdʒmənt] n. 感谢；承认；承认书
ignorance ['ɪgn(ə)r(ə)ns] n. 无知，愚昧；不知，不懂
archaeologist [,ɑːkɪ'ɒlədʒɪst] n. 考古学家
forgery ['fɔːdʒ(ə)rɪ] n. 伪造；伪造罪；伪造物
genuine ['dʒenjʊɪn] adj. 真实的，真正的；诚恳的
deception [dɪ'sepʃ(ə)n] n. 欺骗，欺诈；骗术
revealed [rɪ'vil] v. 透露（reveal的过去式）；显示
rendered adj. 已渲染的v. 提出；描绘（render的过去分词）；放弃；报答；归还；宣布；提取脂肪
harmless ['hɑ:mləs] adj. 无害的；无恶意的

Much of the confusion about truth arises from complex situations in which the truth is difficult to ascertain or express. Consider a question like Are there really UFOs that are piloted by extraterrestrial beings? Although the question is often hotly debated and people make assertions that purport to express the truth, there is not yet sufficient evidence to say we know the truth about UFOs. However, that doesn’t mean there is no truth about them or that people who affirm their existence and people who deny it are equally correct. It means that whatever the truth is, we do not yet possess it.
关于真理的许多困惑来自于难以确定或表达的复杂情况。思考一个问题，是否真的有外星人驾驶的不明飞行物？虽然这个问题经常被激烈的辩论，人们作出断言意图表达真相，但还没有足够的证据表明我们知道有关不明飞行物的真相。然而，这并不意味着没有关于他们的真相，也不意味着肯定的存在的人和否认其存在的人同样正确。这意味着无论真相是什么，我们现在还没掌握。
ascertain [,æsə'teɪn] vt. 确定；查明；探知
express [ɪk'spres; ek-] vt. 表达；快递adj. 明确的；迅速的；专门的n. 快车，快递，专使；捷运公司
piloted ['pailətid] adj. 有人驾驶的n. 指导（pilot过去式）
extraterrestrial [,ekstrətə'restrɪəl] adj. 地球外的n. 天外来客
purport [pə'pɔːt] n. 意义，主旨；意图vt. 声称；意图；意指；打算
affirm [ə'fɜːm] vt. 肯定；断言vi. 确认；断言
sufficient [sə'fɪʃ(ə)nt] adj. 足够的；充分的
possess [pə'zes] vt. 控制；使掌握；持有；迷住；拥有，具备
【 However, that doesn’t mean there is no truth about them or that people who affirm their existence and people who deny it are equally correct. 】
there is no truth about them，和， that people who affirm their existence and people who deny it are equally correct都是宾语，其中后一句的who affirm their existence and people who deny it 是people的定语从句。

Similar difficulty arises from many psychological and philosophical questions—for example: Why are some people heterosexual and others homosexual? Is the cause of criminality genetic or environmental or a combination of the two? Are humans inherently violent? Is there an afterlife? What constitutes success? The answers to these questions, and to many of the issues you will encounter in the applications in this book, will often be incomplete or tentative. Yet that fact should not shake your conviction that there are truths to be discovered.
类似的困难来自许多心理学和哲学问题——例如：为什么有些人是异性恋，有些人是同性恋？犯罪的原因是遗传或环境，还是两者的结合？人类天生是暴力的吗？有来世吗？成功的构成是什么？这些问题以及您在本书应用练习中遇到的许多问题的答案往往是不完整的或暂时性的。 然而，这个事实不应该动摇你存在待发现真理的信念。
philosophical [fɪlə'sɒfɪk(ə)l] adj. 哲学的（等于philosophic）；冷静的
heterosexual [het(ə)rə(ʊ)'seksjʊəl; -ʃʊəl] adj. 异性的；异性恋的n. 异性恋的人
homosexual [,hɒmə(ʊ)'sekʃʊəl; ,həʊm-; -sjʊəl] n. 同性恋者adj. 同性恋的
criminality [,krɪmɪ'nælɪtɪ] n. 有罪，犯罪；犯罪行为
genetic [dʒɪ'netɪk] adj. 遗传的；基因的；起源的
combination [kɒmbɪ'neɪʃ(ə)n] . 结合；组合；联合；[化学] 化合
inherently [ɪnˈhɪərəntlɪ] adv. 内在地；固有地；天性地
afterlife ['ɑːftəlaɪf] n. 来世；死后的生活
constitutes v. 构成（constitute的单三形式）；组成
encounter [ɪn'kaʊntə; en-] vt. 遭遇，邂逅；遇到n. 遭遇，偶然碰见vi. 遭遇；偶然相遇
tentative ['tentətɪv] adj. 试验性的，暂定的；踌躇的n. 假设，试验
conviction [kən'vɪkʃ(ə)n] n. 定罪；确信；证明有罪；确信，坚定的信仰

When planes crashed into the twin towers of the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001, killing several thousand people, the event was officially classified as a terrorist attack. But before long, a very different theory was advanced—that individuals in the highest levels of the U.S. government had planned and executed the crashes to provide an excuse for attacking Iraq. This conspiracy theory gained a number of well-known supporters, including movie and television stars and at least one member of Congress, and was disseminated around the world. In France, for example, a book supporting the theory became a best-seller. The issue became the subject of international debate—in some quarters, people are still divided in their views. But to my knowledge, not a single individual, in this country or abroad, took the position that both views are correct—that is, that each side is entitled to its own truth. If anyone had, he or she would have been attacked by both camps for talking nonsense and trivializing an important issue. When it comes to significant events like 9/11, people want to know the truth, what really happened.
2001年9月11日飞机撞击世界贸易中心双塔和五角大楼，造成数千人死亡，这一事件被正式认定为恐怖袭击事件。但是不久之后，一个不同的理论被提出——美国政府最高级人员策划并执行了这次撞击，从而为攻击伊拉克提供借口。这个阴谋论得到了一些知名的支持者，包括电影和电视明星，至少一位国会议员，并在全世界传播。例如，在法国，支持这一理论的书成为畅销书。这个问题成为国际争论的主题——在某些方面，人们看法仍然存在分歧。但据我所知，在国内或国外，还没有一个人认为这两个观点都是正确的——也就是说，每个人都有权得到自己的真相。如果有人被两个阵营攻击，那么他或她一定是在胡说八道或贬低重要问题。当涉及重大事件，如911，人们想知道真相，真正发生了什么。
Pentagon ['pentəɡ(ə)n] n. 五角形
conspiracy [kən'spɪrəsɪ] n. 阴谋；共谋；阴谋集团
Congress ['kɒŋgres] n. 国会；代表大会；会议；社交
disseminated [dɪ'semɪneɪtɪd] adj. 浸染的；散播性的v. 散布（disseminate的过去分词）；撒播
debate [dɪ'beɪt] vt. 辩论，争论，讨论vi. 辩论，争论，讨论n. 辩论；辩论会
entitled [ɪn'taɪtl] adj. 有资格的；给与名称的v. 给…权利；给…定书名；授…以荣誉（entitle的过去分词）
nonsense ['nɒns(ə)ns] n. 胡说；废话adj. 荒谬的int. 胡说！
trivialize ['trɪvɪəlaɪz] vt. 使平凡；使琐碎
significant [sɪg'nɪfɪk(ə)nt] adj. 重大的；有效的；有意义的；值得注意的；意味深长的n. 象征；有意义的事物

Having the right frame of mind can make your pursuit of the truth less burdensome and give it the sense of adventure that the great thinkers in history experienced. A good way to begin is to keep the following thought in mind: “I know I have limitations and can easily be mistaken. And surely I’ll never find all the answers I’d like to. But I can observe a little more accurately, weigh things a little more thoroughly, and make up my mind a little more carefully. If I do so, I’ll be a little closer to the truth.”
拥有恰当的心境可以使你对真理的追求不那么负担沉重，并赋予其历史上伟大的思想家所体验的冒险感。良好的开端是以下思想：“我知道我有局限并且容易犯错。当然，我将永远都不会找到我想知道的所有答案。但是我可以更准确地观察，更彻底地衡量问题，并更加仔细地做决定。如果我这样做，我会更接近真理。”
pursuit [pə'sjuːt] n. 追赶，追求；职业，工作
burdensome ['bɜːdns(ə)m] adj. 繁重的；累赘的；恼人的
adventure [əd'ventʃə] n. 冒险；冒险精神；投机活动vt. 冒险；大胆说出vi. 冒险
thoroughly [ˈθʌrəli] adv. 彻底地，完全地
make up my mind下定决心

That’s far different from saying, “Everyone makes his or her own truth” or “It all depends on how you look at it.” And it is much more reasonable.
这就迥异于下述说法：“每个人都创造自己的真理”或“这一切都取决于你如何看待”，而且这种态度要更为合理。
Understanding Cause and Effect
了解因果关系

Some of the most difficult challenges in discovering truth occur in determining cause-and-effect relationships. Unfortunately, mistakes are common in such matters. One mistake is to see cause-and-effect relationships where there are none. Another is to see only the simple and obvious cause-and-effect relationships and miss the complex or subtle ones. A third is to believe that causation is relevant only to material forces and is unrelated to human affairs. To avoid such confusion, four facts must be understood:
发现真相的最困难挑战就是确定因果关系。而不幸的是，在这种事情上犯错误是很常见的。一种错误是在没有因果关系的事情上看到因果关系。另一种错误是只看到简单明了的因果关系，而忽略了复杂或微妙的关系。第三种错误认为，因果关系只与物质因素有关，与人类主观意识无关。为了避免这种混乱，必须理解四个事实：

1. One event can precede another without causing it. Some people believe that when one event precedes another, it must be the cause of the other. Most superstition is rooted in this notion. For example, breaking a mirror, crossing paths with a black cat, or walking under a ladder is believed to cause misfortune. You don’t have to be superstitious to make this mistake. You may believe that your professor gave an unannounced quiz today because students were inattentive the day before yesterday, whereas he may have planned it at the beginning of the semester. Or you may believe the stock market fell because a new president took office, when other factors might have prompted the decline.
2. 一个事件可以先于另一个事件发生而不引发它。有人认为，当一个事件先于另一事件发生时，它就是这事件的原因。大多数迷信根植于这个概念。例如，打破镜子，碰上黑猫，或走在梯子下面被认为会造成不幸。你不必迷信犯这些错误，你可能会相信你的教授今天做了一个没提前通知的测验，因为学生前几天不注意，而他可能会在本学期开始就计划。或者您可能认为股市下跌是因为新总统上任，然而，其他因素也可能会导致股市下跌。

The problem with believing that preceding events necessarily cause subsequent events is that such thinking overlooks the possibility of coincidence. This possibility is the basis of the principle that “correlation does not prove causation.” In order to establish a cause-and-effect relationship, it is necessary to rule out coincidence, or at least to make a persuasive case against it.
相信前一事件必然导致后一事件所在的问题是，这种思考忽视了巧合的可能性。这种可能性是“相关性不能证明因果关系”这一原则的基础。为了建立因果关系，有必要排除巧合，或者至少对此作出有说服力的说法。

2. Not all causation involves force or necessity. The term causation is commonly associated with a physical action affecting a material reality, such as, a lightning bolt striking a house and the house catching fire and burning. Or a flowerpot being accidentally dropped out a window and then falling to the ground and breaking. Or a car speeding, failing to negotiate a curve, careening off the highway, and crashing into a tree. In such cases a scientific principle or law applies (combustion, gravity, inertia), and the effect is inevitable or at least highly predictable.
   2．不是所有的因果关系都是强制或必要的。因果关系通常与影响物质现实的物理行为相关联，例如闪电击中房子，房子失火，或者一个花盆不小心从窗户掉出去，然后摔倒在地，打破了；或者汽车超车时没注意路弯，冲出高速公路，撞上一棵树。在这种情况下，科学原则或法律条款（燃烧，重力，惯性），效果是不可避免的或至少是很能预测到的。

That type of causation is valid, but it would be a mistake to think of it as the only type. Causation also occurs in the nonmaterial realities we call human affairs—more specifically, in the processes of emotion and thought. That type of causation has little, if anything, to do with scientific principles or laws, is almost never inevitable, and is often difficult to predict. If we are to avoid oversimplification, we need to define causation in a way that covers both the scientific realm and the realm of human affairs. Here is a footnote for this: As its first definition of cause, the Oxford English Dictionary gives “that which produces an effect; that which gives rise to any action, phenomenon, or condition.” The distinction between “produces” and “gives rise to” is what we are referring to here. We will therefore define causation as the phenomenon of one thing influencing the occurrence of another. The influence may be major or minor, direct or indirect, proximate or remote in time or space. It may also be irresistible, as in The Context the examples of combustion, gravity, and inertia mentioned previously; or resistible, as in following parental teaching or the example of one’s peers. In the latter case, and in other matters involving ideas, the influence (cause) does not force the effect to occur but instead invites, encour- ages, or inspires it. Consider these examples:
这种因果关系是有效的，但认为它是唯一的类型是错误的。因果关系也发生在我们所说的人类事务的非物质现实——更具体地说是在情感和思想的过程中。这种因果关系与科学原理或法律规则有关，几乎不可避免，往往难以预测。如果我们要避免过分简化，我们就需要以涵盖科学界和人类事务的方式来界定因果关系。这是一个脚注：作为其原因的第一个定义，牛津英语词典指出：“给出了一种可靠的定义;导致任何行动，现象或条件”。这个定义在“生产”和“产生”之间的区别就是我们在这里所指的。因此，我们将把因果定义为一个影响另一个事物发生的一个现象。影响可能是主要或次要的，直接的或间接的，在时间或空间上接近或偏离的。这也可能是不可抗拒的，如“上下文”中所述的燃烧，重力和惯性的例子;或可抵抗的，如以下的父母教学或同龄人的例子。在后一种情况下，在涉及想法的其他事项中，影响（原因）不会强制产生影响，而是邀请，鼓励或启发它。考虑如下这些例子：

The idea that intelligence is genetically determined led early twentieth-century educators to conclude that thinking cannot be taught, and thus to emphasize rote learning and expand vocational curriculums.
智力在遗传上的决定导致二十世纪初的教育家认为思维不能被教导，从而强调学习和扩大职业课程。

The idea that people are naturally good, and therefore not personally responsible for their bad deeds, has shifted blame to parents, teachers, and society, and caused judges to treat criminals more leniently.
人们自然而然对自己的不良行为不负个人责任的观念，把责任转归给家长，老师和社会，造成法官更加宽容地对待罪犯。

The idea that one race or ethnic group is superior to another has led to military campaigns against neighboring countries, discriminatory laws, slavery, and genocide.
一个种族或民族优先于另一种族的观念，导致对邻国的军事行动，歧视性法律，奴隶制度和种族灭绝。

The idea that “no one over thirty can be trusted,” which was popular in the United States during the 1960s and 1970s, led many young people to scorn both the advice of their parents and teachers and the accumulated wisdom of the past.
在二十世纪六，七十年代，在美国受欢迎的“三十人无一能信”这一观点，导致许多年轻人鄙视父母和老师的忠告和他们过去积累的智慧。

The idea that feelings are a reliable guide to behavior has led many people to set aside restraint and follow their impulses. This change has arguably led to an increase in incivility, road rage, and spouse abuse, among other social problems.
在二十世纪六，七十年代，在美国受欢迎的“三十岁以上的人，无一能信”这一观点，导致许多年轻人鄙视父母和老师的忠告和他们过去积累的智慧。

The idea that self-esteem is prerequisite to success changed the traditional idea of self-improvement, inspired hundreds of books focused on self- acceptance, and led educators to more indulgent views of homework, grading, and discipline.
自尊是成功的先决条件的理念，改变了传统的自我完善观念，启发了数百本专注于自我认知的书籍，并引导教育工作者更加合理分配家庭作业，分级和纪律观念。

In each of these examples, one idea influenced the occurrence of an action or belief and, in that sense, caused it. Columnist George Will no doubt had this view of causation in mind when he encountered the claim that “no one has ever dropped dead from viewing ‘Natural Born Killers,’ or listening to gangster rap records.” Will responded, “No one ever dropped dead reading ‘Der Sturmer,’ the Nazi anti-Semitic newspaper, but the culture it served caused six million Jews to drop dead.”
在这些的每个例子中，一个想法影响了一个行为或信念的发生，从这个意义上说，确实是引发了它们的发生。专栏作家乔治毫无疑问有关于这样因果关系的深入见解，当他遇到这样的评论： 没有人因为看到“自然出生的杀人者”而死亡，或听到流氓记者记录的时候会死亡。”他回答说：“没有人因为阅读纳粹反犹太人报的“德斯特尔”而死亡，但这种文化的影响造成了600万犹太人死亡。“

3. There is a wild card in human affairs—free will. So far we have noted that causation occurs through force or necessity in material events, but through influence in nonmaterial events—that is, in human affairs. Also, that in human affairs, effects are to some extent predictable but much less so than in material events. Now we need to consider why they are less predictable. The answer is because people possess free will—that is, the capacity to respond in ways that oppose even the strongest influences. Free will is itself a causative factor, and one that can trump all others. This explains why some people who grow up in the worst of circumstances—for example, in dysfunctional, abusive families or in crime-ridden neighborhoods in which the main sources of income are drug dealing and prostitution—resist all the negative influences and become decent, hardworking, and law-abiding. (It can also explain why some people who are more fortunate economically and socially fall short of those ideals.)
4. 在人类事件中有一个通用常见的概念——意志自由。到目前为止，我们已经注意到，因素在物质事件中是通过行为或必要性发生的，但通过对非物质事件来影响，也就是说在人类事件中也会发生的。而且，在人类事件中，这些结果在一定程度上是可预测的，但比在物质事件中能预测的少得多。现在我们需要考虑为什么它们不那么可预测。答案是因为人们拥有自由意志——就是以反对最强影响力的方式作出反应的能力。自由意志本身就是一个致命的因素，一个可以胜过所有其他因素的因素。这就解释了为什么一些在最恶劣情况下长大的人——例如在功能缺陷，家庭暴力或犯罪活动的社群中，他们的主要收入来源是毒品交易和卖淫——抵制所有的负面影响并变得体面，努力工作，守法守法。 （这也可以解释为什么那些在经济和社会上更幸运的人都不符合这些类型。）

It has been rightly said that people can seldom choose the circumstances life places them in, but they can always choose their responses to those circumstances because they possess free will. In any investigation of causes and effects in human affairs, the factor of free will must be considered. However, possessing free will is no guarantee that we will apply it. In fact, one factor makes such application difficult. That factor is habit.
正确地说，人们很少能选择他们所处的生活环境，但是他们总是有自由的意志来选择他们对这种情况的反应。在对人的事业的起因和影响的调查中，必须考虑自由意志的因素。但是，拥有自由意志并不能保证我们能很好运用它。事实上，有一个因素使得这种应用变得困难，这个因素就是习惯。

Habit inclines smokers to continue smoking, liars to continue lying, selfish people to go on being selfish, and countless people to unthinkingly embrace the latest fashion. When leading designers say “hemlines should be raised,” hordes of women comply. When oversized beltless denim jeans are in vogue, hordes of young men waddle down the street, the tops of their pants at the middle of their hips and the crotches of their pants touching their knees. When iconic athletes shave their heads, legions of fans shave theirs. Resisting the force of habit is always possible but never easy.
习惯吸烟者继续吸烟，骗子继续说谎，自私的人继续自私，无数人不假思索地去追时尚。当设计师们说“要血脉喷张的时候”，妇女们就会跟随附和。当超大的无腰牛仔裤流行时，一群年轻人在街上蹒跚而过，裤子的顶部在他们臀部的中间，裤子的裤裆碰到膝盖。当标志性的运动员刮胡子时，一群球迷刮胡子。抵抗习惯的力量总是存在的，但永远都不容易。

The most difficult habits to break are those that accrue incrementally over time. Consider the acceptance of increasing violence and sex on TV and in films. In the 1950s, not much violence and sex were shown on-screen, and what was shown was tame. Then viewers were given glimpses of blood and gore and brief peeks at naked flesh. Year by year, the number of such scenes increased and the camera drew in a little closer and lingered a little longer over them. Over time, one thematic taboo after another was broken. Eventually violence and sexuality were joined, and themes of rape, child molestation, and even cannibalism were introduced. More recently, the industry crafted a new vehicle for assaulting the senses—the forensics program, which depicts rape-murders as they happen, then presents every gory detail of the autopsies in extreme close-up, accompanied by frequent, graphic flashbacks to refresh in viewers’ minds the shocking details of the crimes.
打破最困难的习惯是随着时间的推移逐渐加深的习惯。考虑在电视和电影中接受暴力和性暴力的增加。在二十世纪五十年代，暴力和性内容很少出现在荧屏上，显示的是都是温驯的。然后，观众被瞥见血肉和血肉，并以赤裸裸的肉体略看。年复一年，这些场景的数量增加了，相机被拉近一点，并且在它们之间长了一点。随着时间的推移，一个主题禁忌又一次被打破了。最终暴力和性行为加入，强奸，儿童猥亵甚至同类相食的主题也被引入。最近，该行业制造了一种新的手段来攻击感官 - 取证程序，它描绘了强奸事件的发生，然后在极端特写中呈现尸体解剖的每一个血腥细节，伴随着频繁的图形闪回，以刷新观众对这些罪行的令人震惊的细节表示怀疑。

At first the violent and sexual content provoked protests. In time, however, as sensational images became familiar, people formed the habit of accepting them, and the protests diminished. (In time the habit grew so strong that anyone who objected to graphic sex and violence was considered odd.) What happened in this case was not that people lost their freedom or ability to protest, but instead that habit took away their inclination to protest.
起初，暴力和性侵犯激发了抗议活动。然而，随着耸人听闻的形象变得熟悉，人们形成了接受他们的习惯，抗议减弱。 （习惯变得如此强烈，任何反对图形性和暴力的人都被认为是奇怪的。）在这种情况下，发生了什么事情并不是说人们失去了自由或抗议的能力，而是习惯剥夺了自己的抗议倾向。

4. Causation is often complex. When a small pebble is dropped into a serene pool of water, it causes ripples in every direction, and those ripples can affect even distant waters. NASA researchers have found a similar process at work in the atmosphere: tiny particles in the air called aerosols can have a rippling effect on the climate thousands of miles away from their source region.
   因果关系往往很复杂。当一个小卵石落入平静的水池中时，它会在每个方向引起波纹，而这些波纹也会影响到远处的水域。美国宇航局的研究人员在大气中发现了类似的情况：空气中的微粒称为气溶胶，可能对源区域外数千英里的气候产生连锁反应。
   Causation [kɔː'zeɪʃ(ə)n] n. 原因；因果关系；出现
   pebble ['peb(ə)l] n. 卵石；水晶透镜vt. 用卵石铺
   serene [sɪ'riːn] adj. 平静的；安详的；清澈的；晴朗的n. 平静；晴朗vt. 使平静
   ripples ['rɪpl] n. 涟漪；波纹（ripple的复数）v. 呈波状（ripple的单三形式）
   even ['iːv(ə)n] adj. [数] 偶数的；平坦的；相等的adv. 甚至；即使；还；实际上vt. 使平坦；使相等vi. 变平；变得可比较；成为相等n. (Even)人名；(法)埃旺；(德)埃文；(英)埃文
   distant ['dɪst(ə)nt] adj. 遥远的；冷漠的；远隔的；不友好的，冷淡的
   atmosphere ['ætməsfɪə] n. 气氛；大气；空气
   particles ['pɑrtɪkl] n. 微粒，粒子；粒子系统；碎木料（particle的复数形式）
   aerosols n. [物化] 气溶胶，喷雾器（aerosol的复数形式）
   climate [ˈklaɪmət] n. 气候；风气；思潮；风土
   region ['riːdʒ(ə)n] n. 地区；范围；部位

Effects in human affairs can also be complex. In an effort to cut costs, the owner of a chemical plant may dispose of chemicals in a nearby stream that flows into a river. This action may result in effects he did not intend, including the pollution of the river, the killing of fish, and even the contracting of cancer by people living far from his plant. Those effects will be no less real because he did not intend them.
对人事的影响也可能很复杂。为了降低成本，化工厂主可能将化学品排放到流入河流的小溪中。这种行为可能会导致他没想到的后果，包括河流的污染，鱼类灭绝，甚至导致生活在远离他的工厂的人们的癌症。这些影响将不会真实，因为他并没想到。
affair [ə'feə] n. 事情；事务；私事；（尤指关系不长久的）风流韵事
chemical ['kemɪk(ə)l] n. 化学制品，化学药品adj. 化学的
plant [plɑːnt] n. 工厂，车间；植物；设备；庄稼vt. 种植；培养；栽培；安置vi. 种植n. (Plant)人名；(英、西、意)普兰特；(法)普朗
dispose [dɪ'spəʊz] vt. 处理；处置；安排vi. 处理；安排；（能够）决定n. 处置；性情
pollution [pə'luːʃ(ə)n] n. 污染污染物
contracting [kən'trækt] adj. 缔约的；承包的；收缩的
intend [ɪn'tend] vt. 打算；想要；意指vi. 有打算

Awoman in the early stages of influenza, unaware that she is ill, may sneeze while on a crowded airplane and infect dozens of her fellow passengers. As a result, they may lose time at work; some may have to be hospitalized; those with compromised immune systems could conceivably die. Given her lack of knowledge of her condition, no reasonable person would consider her culpable (morally responsible) for the effects of her sneeze, but there would still be no doubt that she caused them.
流感初期的女士，并未察觉她生病了，可能在拥挤的飞机上打喷嚏，感染了数十名旅客。因此，他们可能不能正常工作; 有些可能需要住院治疗; 那些免疫系统受损的人可能会死亡。鉴于她对病情的了解不足，理性的人不会认为她对打喷嚏的后果负有责任的（道义上的责任），但她无疑是造成伤害的。
influenza [ɪnflʊ'enzə] n. [内科] 流行性感冒（简写flu）；家畜流行性感冒
sneeze [sniːz] vi. 打喷嚏n. 喷嚏
fellow ['feləʊ] n. 家伙；朋友；同事；会员adj. 同伴的，同事的；同道的vt. 使…与另一个对等；使…与另一个匹敌n. (Fellow)人名；(英)费洛
hospitalized ['hɑspɪtl,aɪz] vt. 住院；入院就医（hospitalize的过去分词）
compromised adj. 妥协的；妥协让步的，缺乏抵抗力的vt. 妥协；连累（compromise的过去分词）
immune [ɪ'mjuːn] adj. 免疫的；免于……的，免除的n. 免疫者；免除者
conceivably [kən'siːvəblɪ] adv. 令人信服地；可相信地；想得到地
culpable ['kʌlpəb(ə)l] adj. 有罪的；该责备的；不周到的；应受处罚的
morally ['mɒrəlɪ] adv. 道德上；有道德地；确实地
doubt [daʊt] n. 怀疑；疑问；疑惑v. 怀疑；不信；恐怕；拿不准

A car is driving on the interstate at night. In rapid succession, a deer jumps out and, the driver slams on his brakes but still hits and kills the deer, the car traveling closely behind slams into his car, and five other cars do likewise, each crashing into the car in front. As a result of this chain reaction, the drivers and passengers suffer a variety of injuries— minor in the case of those wearing seat belts, major in others. The task of identifying the causative factors requires careful attention to the details. The initial cause was the deer’s crossing the road at an unfortunate time, but that is not the only cause. The first driver caused the deer’s demise. Each of the other drivers caused the damage to the front end of his or her car and back end of the car in front.* And the passengers who did not fasten their seat belts caused their injuries to be more severe than those of other drivers and passengers.
夜间，一辆车正在州际公路上行驶。下面情况接连出现，一只鹿跳出来，司机猛踩刹车但仍然撞死了鹿，身后紧跟的车辆撞到前面的车，另外还有五辆车同样撞到前面的车。由于这一系列连锁反应，司机和乘客遭受各种伤害——系安全带的人受伤较少，其他人受伤较多。识别其中因果关系需要注意细节。最初的原因是鹿在一个不幸运的时候过马路，但这不是唯一的原因。 第一个司机造成鹿死亡。 每个其他司机造成他或她的车前端和前车后方的损坏。*没有系好安全带的乘客造成的自己受的伤害比其他司机、乘客更严重。
interstate [ɪntə'steɪt] adj. 州际的；州与州之间的. （美）州际公路
succession [sək'seʃ(ə)n] n. 连续；继位；继承权；[生态] 演替
In rapid succession接连不断
slams [slæms,] 砰然声；批评，猛击
brakes [brek] n. [机][车辆] 刹车（brake的复数）；[机] 制动；刹车系统v. [机][车辆] 刹车（brake的第三人称单数）；打碎
variety [və'raɪətɪ] n. 多样；种类；杂耍；变化，多样化
injuries ['ɪndʒəri] n. 伤害，伤痛（injury的复数）；受伤
causative ['kɔːzətɪv] adj. 成为原因的；惹起…的n. 使役动词
demise [dɪ'maɪz] n. 死亡，终止；转让；传位vt. 遗赠；禅让
fasten ['fɑːs(ə)n] vt. 使固定；集中于；扎牢；强加于vi. 扣紧；抓住；集中注意力
severe [sɪ'vɪə] adj. 严峻的；严厉的；剧烈的；苛刻的

These examples contain a valuable lesson about the need for care in investigating causes and effects. But this lesson will be even clearer if we examine a case in the way investigation usually proceeds—backward in time from the latest effect to the earliest causative factor; that is, to the “root” cause.
这些例子包含有关在调查原因和影响方面需要注意的有价值的教训。但是，这个教训可以变得很清晰如果我们特定方式进行调查——从最后的影响回溯到最初的影响；即回到“根”原因。
investigating [ɪn'vɛstə,get] v. 调查；审查（investigate的ing形式）
proceeds ['prəʊsiːdz] n. 收入，收益；实收款项
backward ['bækwəd] adj. 向后的；反向的；发展迟缓的adv. 向后地；相反地

For example, it has been clear for some time that the number of people of Middle Eastern origin living in Europe has increased so dramatically that before long, according to some observers, Europe might well be called “Eurabia.” What caused this change? Analysts found that for decades European companies, with their governments’ blessing, have been inviting foreigners to work in their countries, and these workers brought their families, formed their own enclaves, built their own mosques and churches, and “planted” their own ethnic cultures. The next question is what caused the governments to approve this influx of workers? The answer is that the native population of European countries had declined to a point near or below “replacement level” and there were too few native-born workers to fill the available jobs and thus fund older people’s pensions and health care services.
例如，一段时间以来，居住在欧洲的原籍中东人人数明显增加，根据一些观察家的说法，欧洲可能被称为“欧拉柏”，是什么导致了这种变化？分析人士发现，几十年来，随着政府的鼓励，欧洲公司一直邀请外国人到国内工作，这些工人带他们的家人组建自己的飞地，建造了自己的清真寺和教堂，并“种植”了自己的种族文化。下一个问题是政府为何是否批准了这些工人涌入呢？答案是，欧洲国家的本地人口已经下降到接近或低于“替代水平”的地步，本地出生的工人太少，不足以填补现有工作，从而支持老年人的退休金和保健服务。
origin ['ɒrɪdʒɪn] n. 起源；原点；出身；开端
dramatically [drə'mætɪkəlɪ] adv. 戏剧地；引人注目地adv. 显著地，剧烈地
Eurabia欧拉伯；阿拉伯的欧洲
decades n. 数十年（decade的复数）
companies [ˈkɔmpəniz] n. 公司，企业；伙伴（company的复数形式）；公司财产v. 陪伴，伴随（company的三单形式）
blessing ['blesɪŋ] n. 祝福；赐福；祷告v. 使幸福（bless的ing形式）；使神圣化；为…祈神赐福n. (Blessing)人名；(英、德)布莱辛
formed [fɔ:md] adj. 成形的，成形v. 成形加工（form过去时形式）
enclaves飞地
mosque [mɒsk] n. 清真寺
churches [tʃɜːtʃɪs] n. 教会，教堂（church复数形式）v. 到教堂接受宗教仪式（church的第三人称单数形式）
ethnic ['eθnɪk] adj. 种族的；人种的
approve [ə'pruːv] vt. 批准；赞成；为…提供证据vi. 批准；赞成；满意
influx ['ɪnflʌks] n. 流入；汇集；河流的汇集处
population [pɒpjʊ'leɪʃ(ə)n] n. 人口；[生物] 种群，[生物] 群体；全体居民
pension ['penʃ(ə)n] n. 退休金，抚恤金；津贴；膳宿费vt. 发给养老金或抚恤金

What caused the population decline? The availability of effective birth control techniques in the 1960s and 1970s and the choice of more and more families to employ those techniques. What caused so many families to limit the number of their children? One factor was the century-long population movement from rural areas to cities, where children are an economic burden rather than an asset. Others were the growing emphasis on self-fulfillment and the corresponding tendency to regard child rearing as self-stifling.
是什么导致人口下降？ 20世纪60年代和70年代有效的节育技术的实用性以及越来越多的家庭选择采用这些技术的选择。 造成这么多家庭限制孩子个数的原因是什么？一个因素是从农村到城市的长达一个世纪的人口流动，儿童不是资产而是经济负担。另一些则越来越强调自我实现，相应的将抚养孩子视为自我窒息。
rural ['rʊər(ə)l] adj. 农村的，乡下的；田园的，有乡村风味的
burden ['bɜːd(ə)n] n. 负担；责任；船的载货量vt. 使负担；烦扰；装货于n. (Burden)人名；(英)伯登
asset ['æset] n. 资产；优点；有用的东西；有利条件；财产；有价值的人或物n. （法）阿塞（人名）
emphasis ['emfəsɪs] n. 重点；强调；加强语气
tendency ['tend(ə)nsɪ] n. 倾向，趋势；癖好
self-fulfillment [,selfful'filmənt] n. 自我实现；达成自己愿望
rearing ['rɪrɪŋ] n. 饲养；养育；抚养v. 抚养；建立（rear的ing形式）；竖起
stifling ['staɪf(ə)lɪŋ; 'staɪflɪŋ] adj. 令人窒息的；沉闷的v. 使窒息；粉碎（stifle的现在分词）

As even this brief analysis of causes and effects suggests, facile responses to complex issues—in this case, “Middle Easterners are trying to take over Europe” or “The Crusades are here again, in reverse”—are not only unhelpful but unfair. The following cautions will help you avoid oversimplification in your analyses:
这种对原因和效果的简要分析也表明，对复杂问题的简单回应 ——在这种例子，“中东人正试图接管欧洲”或“这里有开始十字军东征，颠倒过来”—— 不仅没有帮助而且不公平。以下注意事项将有助于避免您的分析过于简单：
brief [briːf] adj. 简短的，简洁的；短暂的，草率的n. 摘要，简报；概要，诉书vt. 简报，摘要；作…的提要n. (Brief)人名；(英)布里夫
suggest [sə'dʒest] vt. 提议，建议；启发；使人想起；显示；暗示
facile ['fæsaɪl; -sɪl] adj. （言语或理论）轻率的，未经深思熟虑的adj. 温和的；灵巧的；易做到的
issue ['ɪʃuː; 'ɪsjuː]n. 问题；流出；期号；发行物vt. 发行，发布；发给；放出，排出vi. 发行；流出；造成…结果；传下
Crusades n. 十字军；十字军东征
reverse [rɪ'vɜːs] n. 背面；相反；倒退；失败vt. 颠倒；倒转adj. 反面的；颠倒的；反身的vi. 倒退；逆叫
cautions n. 注意事项；警告；警语（caution的复数）v. 告诫；使小心（caution的三单形式）
oversimplification [,ovɚ,sɪmpləfə'keʃən] n. 过度单纯化；过分简单化

Remember that events seldom, if ever, “just happen.” They occur as the result of specific influences, and these influences may be major or minor, direct or indirect, proximate or remote in time or space; also irresistible (forced or necessary) or resistible (invited, encouraged, or inspired).
记住，事件不常发生，如果有的话，“只是发生”。它们是由于具体的影响而产生的，这些影响可能是主要或次要的，直接的或间接的，在时间或空间上接近或偏离的; 同样有不可抗拒（强制或必要）或可抵制（邀请，鼓励或鼓舞）。
seldom ['seldəm] adv. 很少，不常
influences n. 影响，影响力；作用（influence的复数形式）vt. 影响，感化（influence的三单形式）
proximate ['prɒksɪmət] adj. 近似的；最近的
remote [rɪ'məʊt] adj. 遥远的；偏僻的；疏远的n. 远程
irresistible [ɪrɪ'zɪstɪb(ə)l] adj. 不可抵抗的；不能压制的；极为诱人的
resistible [rɪ'zɪstəbl] adj. 可抵抗的
encouraged [ɪn'kʌrɪdʒd] v. 鼓励( encourage的过去式和过去分词 )；支持；促进；鼓动
inspired [ɪn'spaɪəd] adj. 有灵感的；官方授意的v. 激发（inspire的过去分词）；鼓舞

Remember that free will is a powerful causative factor in human affairs, and it is often intertwined with other causes. In the case of the changes in European society, the movement of people from farm to city and the use of birth control were individual choices, but the greater availability of jobs in the cities (an economic reality) and birth control technology (a scientific development) were not.
记住，自由意志是人类事务中的一个强大的原因因素，往往与其他原因相互交织在一起。 在欧洲社会发生变化的情况下，人们从农村到城市的流动以及节育的使用是个人的选择，但是城市更多的就业机会（经济现实）和节育技术（科学发展 ） 不是。
causative ['kɔːzətɪv] adj. 成为原因的；惹起…的n. 使役动词
affairs n. 事务，事宜；风流韵事
intertwined [,ɪntɜː'twaɪnd] adj. 缠绕的；错综复杂的v. 使缠结，缠绕（intertwine的过去式）

Be aware that in a chain of events, an effect often becomes a cause. For example, the decline in population in Europe caused the importation of foreign workers, which in turn caused a change in the ratio of native-born to foreign citizens, which may in time alter the continent’s dominant values and attitudes.
请注意，在一连串的事件中，效果通常会成为一个原因。例如，欧洲人口的下降导致了外国工人的引进，这反过来又导致了本地人与外国公民的比例的变化，这可能会及时改变大陆的主导价值观和态度。
ratio ['reɪʃɪəʊ] n. 比率，比例
continent ['kɒntɪnənt] n. 大陆，洲，陆地adj. 自制的，克制的
dominant ['dɒmɪnənt] adj. 显性的；占优势的；支配的，统治的n. 显性

Be aware that, in dealing with human affairs, outcomes can be unpredictable. Therefore, in determining causes, you may have to settle for probability rather than certainty (as you would in matters that lend themselves to scientific measurement). In other words, you might conclude that something is more likely than not or, when the probability is very high, substantially more likely to be the cause. Either of these conclusions has significantly more force than mere possibility, but it falls short of certainty. The difference is roughly analogous to the difference in legal standards of judgment: in civil cases, the standard is “a preponderance of the evidence” or “clear and convincing evidence,” whereas in criminal cases it is the more demanding standard of “beyond a reasonable doubt.”
要注意，在处理人的事务时，结果是不可预知的。因此，在确定原因时，您可能需要解决概率而不是确定性（就像在科学测量方面那样）。换句话说，你可能会得出结论，有些事情更有可能是而非不是，或者概率非常高的时候，实质上可能是产生的原因。这些结论中的任何一个都比单纯的可能性有更大的力量，但不能确定。差异大致类似于判决时法律标准的差异：在民事案件中，标准是“优势的证据”或“明确而令人信服的证据”，而在刑事案件中，标准是“明确的证明。”
unpredictable [ʌnprɪ'dɪktəb(ə)l] adj. 不可预知的；不定的；出乎意料的n. 不可预言的事
determining [dɪ'tɜːmɪnɪŋ] n. 决定；测定（determine的ing形式）
settle ['set(ə)l] vi. 解决；定居；沉淀；下陷vt. 解决；安排；使…定居n. 有背长椅n. (Settle)人名；(英)塞特尔
certainty ['sɜːt(ə)ntɪ; -tɪn-] n. 必然；确实；确实的事情
measurement ['meʒəm(ə)nt] n. 测量；[计量] 度量；尺寸；量度制
conclude [kən'kluːd] vt. 推断；决定，作结论；结束vi. 推断；断定；决定
substantially [səb'stænʃ(ə)lɪ] adv. 实质上；大体上；充分地
conclusions [kən'klʊʒənz] n. 结论，总结；决定（conclusion的复数）
significantly [sɪg'nɪfɪk(ə)ntlɪ] adv. 显著地；相当数量地
mere [mɪə] adj. 仅仅的；只不过的n. 小湖；池塘n. (Mere)人名；(日)目连(姓)；(西)梅雷
roughly ['rʌflɪ] adv. 粗糙地；概略地
analogous [ə'næləgəs] adj. 类似的；[昆] 同功的；可比拟的
preponderance [prɪ'pɒnd(ə)r(ə)ns] n. 优势；多数；占优势
convincing [kən'vɪnsɪŋ] adj. 令人信服的；有说服力的v. 使相信；使明白（convince的现在分词）
whereas [weər'æz] conj. 然而；鉴于；反之
demanding [dɪ'mɑːndɪŋ] adj. 苛求的；要求高的；吃力的v. 要求；查问（demand的ing形式

In searching for truth, when you encounter possible cause-and-effect relationships, keep these cautions in mind.
在寻找真相时，当遇到可能的因果关系时，请牢记这些注意事项。
encounter [ɪn'kaʊntə; en-] vt. 遭遇，邂逅；遇到n. 遭遇，偶然碰见vi. 遭遇；偶然相遇
cause-and-effect因果；有因果关系的

Applications
应用

1.Think of a recent situation in which someone referred inappropriately to “my truth.” Write two or three paragraphs, in your own words, explaining to that person what you learned in this chapter.
想想最近有人不恰当地提到“我的真相”的情况。用你自己的话来写两三段，向他解释你在本章中学到的东西。
inappropriately [ˌɪnə'proʊprɪrtlɪ] adv. 不适当地;

2. A central question in sociology is How does society evolve? Three well known individuals gave very different answers. Auguste Comte (1798–1857) suggested that it involved three stages: religious, metaphysical, and scientific. Herbert Spencer (1820–1903) claimed that it followed Darwinian “natural selection,” in which only the fittest survive. Karl Marx (1818–1883) argued that it occurred through class conflict as a result of economic exploitation. Would belief in relativism—the idea that everyone creates his or her own truth—increase or decrease someone’s motivation to analyze these three viewpoints and pursue the question of society’s evolution? Explain your response.
   社会学的中心问题是社会如何演化？三位知名人士给出了非常不同的答案。奥古斯特·孔德（1798-1857）提出，它涉及到三个阶段：宗教，形而上学和科学。赫伯特·斯潘塞（1820-1903）声称，它遵循达尔文“自然选择”，只有适者生存。卡尔·马克思（1818-1883）认为，这是通过经济剥削的阶级冲突而发生的。信仰相对主义-- 每个人都创造自己的真相的想法 - 增加或减少了分析这三个观点的动机，追求社会进化问题的答案？解释你的回应。
   exploitation [ˌɛksplɔɪˈteʃən] n. 开发; 利用; 剥削; 广告推销;

3. Read each of the following passages, decide how reasonable it is, and explain your thinking. a. People who believe that “everyone creates his or her own truth” should never argue with anyone about anything. If they do, they are being inconsistent. b. Motivation to do anything depends on the belief that it has not yet been done. Everyone who loses something precious, say a diamond ring, will search diligently and even desperately until it is found. But only a fool would continue searching for it after it was found. It is no different with other kinds of searches, such as the search for truth. Once we think we have it, we stop looking. 阅读以下每一段，判断它的合理性，并解释你的想法。a.相信“每个人都创造自己的真理”的人不应该与任何人争论任何事情。如果他们这样做，他们就是言行不一致的。b。做任何事情的动机都取决于信念还没有完成。每个失去宝贵东西的人，比如丢了一个钻石戒指，都会努力搜寻，甚至拼命搜寻，直到找到。但只有一个傻瓜才会在找到之后继续寻找。与其他类型的搜索没有什么不同，例如搜索真相。一旦我们认为我们拥有它，我们就停止寻找。

4. For years grade school students faced this question on their science tests: “True or False—The famous rings of the planet Saturn are composed of solid material.” If the students marked “true,” they lost credit, because the “truth” was that Saturn’s rings were composed of gas or dust. Then, in 1973, radar probes revealed that all those wrong answers had been right. Saturn’s rings are, in fact, composed of solid matter. This confusing case seems to suggest that the truth changed. Did it really? Explain. 多年级学生在科学考试中面临这个问题：“真或假 - 土星的著名的环是由坚实的材料组成的”，如果学生回答“真”，他们失去学分，因为“真相“是土星的环是由气体或灰尘组成的。然后在1973年，雷达探测器就揭露出所有错误的答案都是对的。事实上，土星的环是由固体物质组成的. 这种混乱的情况似乎表明真相已经改变了。真的吗？说明。

5. The scene is a campus security office, where two students are being questioned. A few minutes earlier, they were engaged in a fistfight in the cafeteria. The campus police ask them again and again how the fight started. The stories conflict. Because each student seems genuinely convinced that the other one was the aggressor and there were no witnesses, the campus police have no hope of discovering the truth. But is there a truth to discover? Or are there two truths, one for each student’s story? What light does the chapter shed on these questions? 现场是一个校园安全办公室，两名学生正受到质疑。几分钟前，他们在自助餐厅进行了搏斗。校园警察一再问他们是如何开架的。描述存在矛盾。因为每个学生似乎真的相信另一个是侵略者，没有证人，校园警察没有发现真相的希望。但是有没有真相要发现？还是有两个真理，每个学生的陈述的版本一个？本章中有什么对揭露这些问题有帮助？
   aggressor [əˈɡrɛsɚ] n. 侵略者; 挑衅者; 侵略国;

6. A strange phenomenon that affects a tiny number of the world’s inhabitants has interested psychologists for some time. It occurs during what Norwegians call the “murky time,” the two months each year during which areas above the Arctic Circle experience almost unrelieved darkness. The effects on people have been discovered to be unfortunate, even dangerous. At worst, people experience severe tenseness, restlessness, fear, a preoccupation with thoughts of death and even suicide. At best, they experience an inability to concentrate, fatigue, a lack of enthusiasm for anything, suspicion, and jealousy. Part of the cause is seen as lack of sleep. Accustomed to day and night, people become confused by constant darkness.13 This phenomenon poses an interesting test of truth. Would it be proper to say the phenomenon was true before it was recognized and acknowledged by psychologists? Or did it become true only when they became aware of it? And what of your relationship to the phenomenon? Before you became aware of it for the first time, whether reading it here or elsewhere, it was not “true to you.” But did that make it any less true? Explain in light of this chapter. 影响世界上少数居民的奇怪现象有一段时间引起了心理学家的兴趣。它发生在挪威人称之为“阴暗时间”期间，每年两个月，北极圈以上的地区经历了几乎无法解决的黑暗。对人的影响被发现是不好的，甚至是危险的。在最坏的情况下，人们经历严重的紧张，不安，恐惧，全神贯注地思考死亡甚至自杀的想法。最好的是，他们无法集中精力，疲劳，缺乏热情，怀疑和嫉妒。原因的一部分被视为缺乏睡眠。习惯于了白天和黑夜，现在人们被不断的黑暗困惑. 这种现象提供了一个有趣的关于真相的测验。在心理学家认可和承认之前，这种现象是否正确呢？或者只有当他们意识到时它才是正确的？你和这个现象有什么关系？在你第一次意识到这一点之前，是否在这里还是其他地方阅读过，这不是“对你真实的”，但是这不是真的吗？根据本章解释。

7. Evaluate the following dialogues in light of what you learned in this chapter. If you lack sufficient knowledge to judge the issue, do some research. 根据你在本章中学到的内容，对以下对话进行评估。如果你缺乏足够的知识来判断问题，做一些研究。

a. Martha: I don’t care what the courts say about abortion—I’m convinced it’s murder because the fetus is a human being. Marian: If you want to believe that, fine. Just don’t impose your beliefs on others and prevent them from exercising their rights. Martha: You don’t seem to understand. It’s not just a fetus in my uterus that’s human but the fetus in the uterus of every pregnant woman. Marian: Nonsense. You have no right to classify what exists in someone else’s uterus. That’s her business. You should mind your own business. 玛莎：我不在乎法庭对堕胎的看法 - 我相信这是谋杀，因为胎儿是人类。玛丽安：如果你想相信，那好，不要把你的信仰强加给别人，阻止他们行使自己的权利。玛莎：你似乎不明白，不仅仅我的子宫里的是一个人类，而且每个孕妇子宫的胎儿都是。玛丽安：胡说，你没有权利对别人的子宫内存在什么进行分类。这是别人的事，你应该管好自己的事情。

b. Barbi: Television shows about suicide should not be aired. Ken: Why? Barbi: Because they cause people to commit suicide. Ken: That’s ridiculous. How can a drama or documentary that shows the tragedy of suicide cause people to commit suicide? Barbi: I don’t know how it happens. Maybe some people have thoughts of suicide already and the show reinforces them. Or maybe they focus on the act of suicide and lose sight of the tragedy. All I know is that attempted suicides increase after the airing of such shows. Barbi：不应该播出关于自杀的电视节目。肯：为什么？Barbi：因为他们导致人们自杀。肯：太可笑了，显示自杀悲剧的戏剧或纪录片怎么会导致人们自杀？巴比：我不知道怎么回事。也许有些人已经有了自杀的想法，这个节目加强了这种想法，或者也许他们专注于自杀行为，并忽视悲剧。我所知道的是，在这样的电视节目之后，企图自杀的行为增加。
reinforces [ˌri:ɪnˈfɔ:siz] v. 加固( reinforce的第三人称单数 ); 使更结实; 加强; 充实;
airing [ˈerɪŋ] v. 晾晒( air的现在分词 ); 烘干; 播送; 广播;

c. Mabel: I notice that when you get a newspaper you immediately turn to the astrology column. Do you really believe that nonsense? Alphonse: It’s not nonsense. The planets exercise a powerful influence on our lives; their positions in the heavens at the time of our birth can shape our destiny. Mabel: I can’t believe I’m hearing such slop from a science major. Alphonse: What you fail to understand is that astrology is science, one of the most ancient sciences at that. 马贝尔：我注意到，当你得到一份报纸时，你马上转向占星术专栏。 你真的相信那种胡说八道的事情吗？Alphonse：这不是胡说八道，行星对我们的生活产生强大的影响; 行星在我们出生时位置可以塑造我们的命运。 马贝尔：我不敢相信我从科学专业那里听到这样的说法。 Alphonse：你不明白的是，占星学是科学，是最古老的科学之一。
astrology [əˈstrɑlədʒi] n. 占星术; 占星学; 原始天文学;
slop [slɑp] vt. （液体）晃出; 使（某物）溢出或泼出; 休息，放松，偷懒;

d. Jake: What did you think of the chapter “What Is Truth?” Rocky: It’s stupid. Jake: What do you mean? Rocky: It contradicts Chapter 1. Jake: I didn’t get that impression. Where’s the contradiction? Rocky: In Chapter 1 the author says that we should strive to be individuals and think for ourselves. Now he says that his idea about truth is OK and ours isn’t and that we should follow his. That’s a contradiction.
杰克：你对“什么是真理”这个章节有什么看法？洛基：这很愚蠢。 杰克：你是什么意思？ 洛基：它与第一章相矛盾。杰克：我没有产生这个印象。 矛盾在哪里？ 洛基：在第一章中，作者说我们应该努力做个人，为自己而思考。 现在他说他关于真理的想法都是对的，而我们的则不是，而且认为我们应该跟随他的想法。矛盾在这里。

8. Group discussion exercise: How many times have you been certain something was true, only to find out later that it was not? Discuss those experiences with two or three classmates. Be prepared to share the most dramatic and interesting experiences with the rest of the class.
   小组讨论练习：你有多少次确定一些事情是真实的，却在后来发现不是的？ 与两三位同学讨论这些经历。 准备与课上其他人分享最具戏剧性和趣味性的经历。

A Difference of Opinion
观点的差异

The following passage summarizes an important difference of opinion. After reading the statement, use the library and/or the Internet and find what knowledgeable people have said about the issue. Be sure to cover the entire range of views. Then assess the strengths and weaknesses of each. If you conclude that one view is entirely correct and the others are mistaken, explain how you reached that conclusion. If, as is more likely, you find that one view is more insightful than the others but that they all make some valid points, con- struct a view of your own that combines the insights from all views and explain why that view is the most reasonable of all. Present your response in a composi- tion or an oral report, as your instructor specifies.
以下段落总结了意见的重大差异。阅读声明后，使用图书馆或互联网，并找到博学之人对此问题的看法。一定要覆盖整个观点，然后评估每个人的优缺点。如果你认为某个观点是完全正确的，而其他的观点是错误的，那么请解释你如何得出这个结论。如果更有可能的是，你发现一个视图比其他视图更具有洞察力，但他们都做出了一些有用的观点，构建了你自己的视图，你的视图是所有视图的洞察结合起来的，并解释了为什么这个视图是最合理的。在你导师指定的组合或口头报告中呈现你的回答。

Who is responsible for the fiscal crisis of 2008? This issue continues to be central to overcoming the consequences of the crisis and to ensuring that it does not recur. Commentators are divided on the cause. Some claim it is was the policies of George W. Bush’s administration; others, the policies of the Clinton administration; others, the greed of Wall Street executives. Many point, instead, to congressional pressure on banks, during the 1990s, to give loans to people who could not afford to repay them. Still others say the crisis originated during the Carter administration, specifically in the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977.
谁来为2008年的金融危机负责？这个问题仍然是消除危机带来后果并确保不再发生的关键。评论家根据危机发生的原因产生了分歧。有人声称是布什政府的政策导致的；另一些则认为是克林顿政府的政策;其他人，华尔街高管的贪欲。相反，在20世纪90年代，很多时候，国会对银行施加压力，向不能偿还债务的人提供贷款。还有人说，这场危机是在卡特政府发起的，特别是1977年的“机构再投资法”。

Begin your analysis by conducting a Google search using the terms “Community Reinvestment Act,” “causes financial crisis,” and “subprime mortgage crisis.”
你可以通过使用谷歌搜索术语“机构再投资法案”、“引起金融危机”和“次贷危机”，来开始分析这个问题。