本文阐述油价波动对石油行业价值链的影响 (转载)

Upstream

While U.S. production growth is expected to continue, albeit likely at a slower pace, lower oil prices inevitably will drive changes across the North American energy value chain.

Crude oil

We anticipate that drilling activity will vary by location as breakeven prices can vary greatly from basin to basin and even within basins. For example, in our last commentary, we noted that break-even prices in the Eagle Ford shale ranged from $49 per barrel to $102 per barrel. While areas with less productive wells will likely slow drilling activity as these wells become less profitable to drill, we believe producers with assets in the most economic shales with low debt levels are well-positioned to continue growing production. Tighter margins will likely drive producers to be more disciplined when allocating 2015 capital budgets, focusing on the highest-returning/lowest cost locations. This in turn is expected to slow business for oilfield service providers that likely will experience falling rig counts, less service demand and narrower margins.

Natural gas

With all of this talk about crude oil prices declining, it’s important to remember that natural gas assets play a significant role in the U.S. energy story and are not directly affected by crude oil prices. Natural gas prices are already low, relative to recent history, and the Marcellus is becoming the dominant U.S. natural gas basin in the low-price environment, with the Utica emerging for its dry gas production potential. Continued build-out of Marcellus infrastructure should support rising natural gas volumes in 2015 and beyond.

We believe oil and gas producers with the best management teams and strong balance sheets are largely well-positioned. Oil and gas producers currently have a relatively low cash flow multiple compared to the S&P 500 Index®and well-positioned companies could be a value. In our view, the long-term investment opportunity in North American energy production remains compelling, however investors should expect short-term volatility as the global supply/demand equation is balanced.

Midstream

Midstream pipeline companies own and operate essential, long-lived assets and generally have steady, recurring, fee-based cash flows. Since pipeline companies earn a fee for transporting volume, they are generally not directly affected by commodity price changes. The characteristics listed below are why many consider midstream pipeline companies attractive long-term investments.

As pipelines carry a variety of products, it’s important to note that different types of pipelines will be more affected by lower crude oil prices than others.

-- Crude oil pipelines earn fees based on the volume they transport through the pipelines. As such, the price of oil does not directly impact these companies. If the low price of oil persists, it is possible that volumes may be affected over time. In such a scenario, companies transporting from areas with higher breakeven prices will be more impacted than others. We also anticipate some consolidation within the crude oil pipeline business as assets are purchased by stronger players.

-- Gathering and processing pipeline companies could see some pressure as this group takes on more commodity price exposure due to the nature of certain contracts within the space. However, many of these companies’ contracts have become more fee-based over the past several years. We anticipate distribution growth may slow if crude oil and NGL prices remain low for an extended period.

-- Refined products pipeline companies could benefit from lower prices, as demand for gasoline and other fuels may increase.

-- Natural gas pipeline companies should be the least affected as their performance isn’t directly tied to crude oil prices and natural gas production is still on the rise.

In our view, midstream MLPs continue to look attractive as a long-term investment with attractiveyield and growth relative to other asset classes. The current yield is 5.8 percent versus the three-yearmedian of 6.0 percent. MLPs are roughly in line with historical spreads against fixed income as well.We believe MLPs will continue to grow distributions but management teams may opt to retain somecash flow growth from projects coming on and grow distribution coverage. For 2015 and 2016, cashflow growth is already largely locked in for projects currently underway. We could see a slowdown or delays in new crude and NGL project announcements. However, we believe we would see some offsetting benefits of growing refined products consumption and increased refined product and NGL exports. We continue to expect announcements for new natural gas pipeline infrastructure projects.

Downstream

Some downstream companies stand to benefit from lower oil prices. Refineries should benefit from lower input costs and likely more demand for products such as gasoline, jet fuel and diesel fuel. As the price of global crude oil declines, U.S. petrochemical companies and LNG export facilities could lose some competitive advantages, as they have been benefiting from relatively low input costs versus the rest of the world. Utilities likely will be unaffected, with potential marginal benefit from any economic growth due to lower liquids prices.

Valuations are mixed across the downstream sector as a wide array of companies is represented. Refining and petrochemical company valuations appear more attractive after the recent selloff, but utilities are above their average historical level. We expect refiners and petrochemical companies to continue to invest in projects to capture competitive feedstock pricing.

Conclusion

We believe that crude oil production may see a slowdown in certain areas in the short term if oil prices continue to decline or stay constant, but we believe that over the long term, prices will return to a range that is economical to continue drilling broadly. The natural gas story in the U.S. is largely unaffected by a decline in crude oil prices. Overall, we believe that North American production growth will still continue to grow despite the fall in oil prices, though likely at a slower rate.

We believe the current market is a good buying opportunity for long-term investors across the entireenergy value chain, particularly in the midstream and areas of the downstream. It is important not to paintall energy investments with a broad brush. The stable attributes of midstream companies, especiallythose focusing on transporting natural gas production, may be resilient to commodity price volatility. And some areas of the downstream, such as refineries, could benefit from lower crude oil prices. We believe that a diversified portfolio of assets by both location and product can help to reduce exposure to commodity price volatility.