The virus is coming. Governments have an enormous amount of work to do 病毒来了， 各国政府准备好了吗？
1090 words
IN PUBLIC HEALTH, honesty is worth a lot more than hope. It has become clear in the past week that the new viral disease,covid-19, which struck China at the start of December will spread around the world. Many governments have been signalling that they will stop the disease. Instead, they need to start preparing people for the onslaught.
1. onslaught ~ (against/on sb/sth)~ (of sth) a strong or violent attack 攻击；猛攻
在公共卫生领域中，诚实比希望更有价值。 在过去一周中，我们看到很明显的趋势，在12月初袭击中国的新型病毒性疾病covid-19将在全球蔓延。 许多政府一直在暗示他们能消灭这种疾病，笔者认为正相反，他们需要开始为袭击做好准备。
Officials will have to act when they do not have all the facts, because much about the virus is unknown. A broad guess is that 25-70% of the population of any infected country may catch the disease. China’s experience suggests that, of the cases that are detected, roughly 80% will be mild, 15% will need treatment in hospital and 5% will require intensive care. Experts say that the virus may be five to ten times as lethal as seasonal flu, which, with a fatality rate of 0.1%, kills 60,000 Americans in a bad year. Across the world, the death toll could be in the millions.
官员们必须要在没有全部事实的情况下采取行动，因为有关该病毒的许多信息尚不得而知。 广泛的猜测是，任何受感染国家的25-70％的人口都可能感染该疾病。 中国的经验表明，在发现的病例中，大约80％为轻度，15％需要住院治疗，5％需要重症监护。专家说，这种病毒的致死性可能是季节性流感的五至十倍。就算致命性流感的致死率低为0.1％，在运势不好的一年也能杀死6万美国人。 在世界范围内，死亡人数可能高达数百万。
If the pandemic is like a very severe flu, models point to global economic growth being two percentage points lower over 12 months, at around 1%; if it is worse still, the world economy could shrink. As that prospect sank in during the week, theS&P 500 fell by 8% (see Finance section).
如果冠状肺炎像一场严重的流感，增长模型表明全球经济在过去12个月下降了两个百分点，低至约1％。如果情况进一步恶化，世界经济可能萎缩。仅在一周内的预期下降，标准普尔500指数就下跌了8％（请参阅财务部分）。
Yet all those outcomes depend greatly on what governments choose to do, as China shows. Hubei province, the origin of the epidemic, has a population of 59m. It has seen more than 65,000 cases and a fatality rate of 2.9%. By contrast, the rest of China, which contains 1.3bn people, has suffered fewer than 13,000 cases with a fatality rate of just 0.4%. Chinese officials at first suppressed news of the disease, a grave error that allowed the virus to take hold. But even before it had spread much outside Hubei, they imposed the largest and most draconian quarantine in history. Factories shut, public transport stopped and people were ordered indoors. This raised awareness and changed behaviour. Without it, China would by now have registered many millions of cases and tens of thousands of deaths.
2. draconian /drəˈkoʊniən/ ( formal ) ( of a law, punishment, etc. 法律、惩罚等 ) extremely cruel and severe 德拉古式的；严酷的；残忍的
但是，正如中国所表明的那样，所有这些结果在很大程度上取决于政府的选择。湖北省是该病的起源地，人口为5900万。目前确诊病例达到65,000例，致死率为2.9％。相比之下，拥有13亿人口的中国其他地区合计确诊病例不到13,000例，致死率仅为0.4％。在疾病传播的初期，中国官员掩盖住了该病的消息，这是一个严重的错误，这使得该病毒得以流行。但是，即使在湖北以外的地区广泛传播之前，他们还是实行了历史上规模最大，最严厉的隔离措施。工厂关闭，公共交通停止，人们居家隔离。这些措施提高了人们的意识并改变了行为。没有它，到现在中国将目睹成千上万的病例和数以万计的死亡。
The World Health Organisation was this week full of praise for China’s approach. That does not, however, mean it is a model for the rest of the world. All quarantines carry a cost—not just in lost output, but also in the suffering of those locked away, some of whom forgo medical treatment for other conditions. It is still too soon to tell whether this price was worth the gains. As China seeks to revive its economy by relaxing the quarantine, it could well be hit by a second wave of infections. Given that uncertainty, few democracies would be willing to trample over individuals to the extent China has.And, as the chaotic epidemic in Iran shows, not all authoritarian governments are capable of it.
3. forgo v. /fɔːˈɡəʊ/ ( forego ) [ VN ] ( formal ) to decide not to have or do sth that you would like to have or do 放弃，弃绝（想做的事或想得之物）
世界卫生组织本周对中国的做法赞不绝口。 但是，这并不意味着它是世界其他地区的榜样。 所有隔离措施都有代价，不仅造成产量损失，而且还会给那些被封锁的人带来痛苦，还有很多人拖延了其他疾病的医治。 现在还不能断言这个代价是否值得，随着中国通过较为宽松的隔离政策来振兴经济，很可能会受到第二波感染的打击。 考虑到这种不确定性，几乎没有哪个民主国家会愿意付出这么大的代价，而且，正如伊朗混乱的疫情所表明的那样，并不是所有的政府都能做到这一点。
Yet even if many countries could not, or should not, exactly copy China, its experience holds three important lessons—to talk to the public, to slow the transmission of the disease and to prepare health systems for a spike in demand.
然而，即使许多国家不能或不应该完全照搬中国，其宝贵经验也给出了三点重要的教训：与公众对话，减缓疾病的传播速度以及做好卫生系统的准备为应对需求激增。
A good example of communication is America’s Centres for Disease Control, which issued a clear, unambiguous warning on February 25th. A bad one is Iran’s deputy health minister, who succumbed to the virus during a press conference designed to show that the government is on top of the epidemic.
4. succumb /səˈkʌm/ V-I If you succumb to temptation or pressure, you do something that you want to do, or that other people want you to do, although you feel it might be wrong. (向诱惑、压力) 屈服
美国疾病控制中心就是一个很好的例子，该中心在2月25日发出了明确、指令清晰的警告。 伊朗副卫生部长哈里奇，就是个反面教材，他于24日主持应对疫情工作出席公开记者会时，已出现明显咳嗽、冒汗等情况，身体状况似乎欠佳。当时，他公开表示伊朗疫情已差不多稳定下来。直至今日，已被确诊感染新冠肺炎，目前正接受隔离。
Even well-meaning attempts to sugarcoat the truth are self-defeating, because they spread mistrust, rumours and, ultimately, fear. The signal that the disease must be stopped at any cost, or that it is too terrifying to talk about, frustrates efforts to prepare for the virus’s inevitable arrival. As governments dither, conspiracy theories coming out of Russia are already sowing doubt, perhaps to hinder and discredit the response of democracies.
5. sugarcoat vt. 裹以糖衣；粉饰
6. dither /ˈdɪðə(r)/ [ V ] ~ (over sth) to hesitate about what to do because you are unable to decide 犹豫不决；踌躇
在这个时候，甚至是善意的谎言都是不攻自破的，因为它们散布着不信任、谣言，甚至是恐惧。 比如反应过度的“该疾病必须不惜一切代价予以停止”言论，或者“它太可怕了而不敢说”，这会让积极应对病毒的努力和信心受挫。随着各国政府的恐慌，来自俄罗斯的阴谋论撒下了怀疑的种子，也许是为了阻碍和抹杀民主国家的应对积极性。
The best time to inform people about the disease is before the epidemic. One message is that fatality is correlated with age. If you are over 80 or you have an underlying condition you are at high risk; if you are under 50 you are not. Now is the moment to persuade the future 80% of mild cases to stay at home and not rush to a hospital. People need to learn to wash their hands often and to avoid touching their face. Businesses need continuity plans, to let staff work from home and to ensure a stand-in can replace a vital employee who is ill or caring for a child or parent. The model is Singapore, which learned fromSARS, another coronavirus, that clear, early communication limits panic.
清楚告知人们疾病信息的最佳时间是在疾病流行之前。 一是死亡率与年龄有关， 如果你超过80岁或有潜在疾病，则处于高风险之中； 如果你未满50岁，则不是高风险人群。 现阶段最重要的是，说服未来80％的轻症患者留在家里而不要急于往医院跑。 人们要学会经常洗手并避免触摸脸部，企业需要紧急应对计划，让员工在家中工作，并确保一些生病或需要照顾孩子、父母的重要员工有接替的人员来完成工作。在这点上，新加坡是个很好的范例，它从SARS那里学到了经验，利用早期交流避免了恐慌。
China’s second lesson is that governments can slow the spread of the disease. Flattening the spike of the epidemic means that health systems are less overwhelmed, which saves lives. If, like flu, the virus turns out to be seasonal, some cases could be delayed until next winter, by which time doctors will understand better how to cope with it. By then, new vaccines and antiviral drugs may be available.
中国的第二个教训是政府可以减缓疾病的传播。 降低疫情高峰意味着减轻卫生系统的重负，把更多精力放在挽救生命上。 如果像流感一样，这种病毒是季节性的，则某些情况可能会推迟到下个冬天，届时医生将有更全面的了解，并且知道如何应对。 届时，可能会出现新的疫苗和抗病毒药物。
Influenza, like many other respiratory diseases, thrives in cold and humid air. If covid-19 behaves the same way, spreading less as the weather gets warmer and drier, flattening the curve will bring an extra benefit. As winter turns to spring then summer, the reproductive rate will drop of its own accord. Dragging out the early stage of the pandemic means fewer deaths before the summer hiatus provides time to stockpile treatments and develop new drugs and vaccines—efforts towards both of which are already under way.
流感和许多其他呼吸道疾病一样，在寒冷潮湿的空气中繁殖。如果covid-19表现出相同的方式，随着天气变暖和变干，扩散更少，变平的曲线将带来额外的好处。冬去春来，夏去夏来，繁殖率自然会下降。拖延大流行的早期阶段意味着在夏季停歇前死亡人数减少，从而有时间储备治疗和开发新药和疫苗——这两方面的努力已经在进行中。
When countries have few cases, they can follow each one, tracing contacts and isolating them. But when the disease is spreading in the community, that becomes futile. Governments need to prepare for the moment when they will switch to social distancing, which may include cancelling public events, closing schools, staggering work hours and so on. Given the uncertainties, governments will have to choose how draconian they want to be. They should be guided by science. International travel bans look decisive, but they offer little protection because people find ways to move. They also signal that the problem is “them” infecting “us”, rather than limiting infections among “us”. Likewise, if the disease has spread widely, as in Italy and South Korea, “Wuhan-lite” quarantines of whole towns offer scant protection at a high cost.
7. fu·tile adj. /ˈfjuːtaɪl/ having no purpose because there is no chance of success 徒然的；徒劳的；无效的
8. social distancing 社交距离
9. stagger [ VN ] to arrange for events that would normally happen at the same time to start or happen at different times 使交错；使错开
10. dra·co·nian adj. /drəˈkəʊniən/ ( formal ) ( of a law, punishment, etc. 法律、惩罚等 ) extremely cruel and severe 德拉古式的；严酷的；残忍的
11. scant adj. /skænt/ [ only before noun ] hardly any; not very much and not as much as there should be 一丁点的；微小的；不足的；欠缺的
12. Scrub up 清洗
当国家病例很少时，他们可以追踪每个病例，追踪联系并将其隔离。 但是，当疾病在社区中传播时，就没有那么细致了。 政府要为过渡到社会隔离做好准备，这可能包括取消公共活动，关闭学校，延长复工时间等。 考虑到不确定性，政府将不得不选择自己想成为什么样的严酷人物， 它们应以科学为指导。 国际旅行禁令看起来非常坚决，但苦于人们依然能找到出行途径，因此该禁令的作用其实很小。此外，其他地区表达问题的方式是“他们”感染了“我们”，而不是“我们”要限制“彼此”之间的感染。 同样，如果这种疾病已经广泛传播，例如在意大利和韩国，则整个城镇的“武汉轻式”隔离所都将以高昂的代价提供有限的保护。
The third lesson is to prepare health systems for what is to come. That entails painstaking logistical planning. Hospitals need supplies of gowns, masks, gloves, oxygen and drugs. They should already be conserving them. They will run short of equipment, including ventilators. They need a scheme for how to set aside wards and floors for covid-19 patients, for how to cope if staff fall ill, and for how to choose between patients if they are overwhelmed. By now, this work should have been done.
13. en·tail v. /ɪnˈteɪl/ [ VN -ing ] to involve sth that cannot be avoided 牵涉；需要；使必要
14. pains·tak·ing adj. /ˈpeɪnzteɪkɪŋ/ [ usually before noun ] needing a lot of care, effort and attention to detail 需细心的；辛苦的；需专注的
15. ven·ti·la·tor n. /ˈventɪleɪtə(r)/ 1. a device or an opening for letting fresh air come into a room, etc. 通风设备；通风口; 2. a piece of equipment with a pump that helps sb to breathe by sending air in and out of their lungs 通气机；呼吸器
16. wards and floors 病房和地板
第三课是为未来的卫生系统做准备。 这需要完备的后勤计划—医院需要提供防护服、口罩、手套、氧气罐和药品，他们应该从现在开始增加储备了； 他们会缺少包括呼吸机在内的医疗设备；他们需要找到一个方法为covid-19患者腾出病房；如何应对工作人员生病；以及如何在突增的患者之间做出选择。至此，这项工作应该已经完成。
This virus has already exposed the strengths and weaknesses of China’s authoritarianism. It will test all the political systems with which it comes into contact, in both rich and developing countries. China has bought governments time to prepare for a pandemic. They should use it.■
这种病毒暴露出中国政府的优点和缺点，其后它将测试发达国家、发展中国家以及所有与病毒有接触的政治制度。 中国为各国政府争取的时间，他们应该充分利用好它。
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