week 3
912-916
听9.12
Science and technology Weather forecasting Continental divide
科学技术 天气预报差距
Europeans do not just talk about the weather more than Americans do.They are better at forecasting it as well.
欧洲人不仅比美国人更喜欢谈论天气，而且也更擅长预测天气。
IT WAS far too small a victory to count as an equaliser.
美国目前的全球预报系统与欧洲中期天气预报中心的天气预报能力可谓平分秋色。
But cheers were still heard in American meteorological circles after the storm that hit the country's east coast last month left the city of New York mostly unscathed.
上月，一场暴风雪袭击了美国东海岸，纽约所受影响较小。对于这次暴风雪的预测，全球预报系统的准确度小占上风。
For more than two decades the Global Forecast System (GFS), the leading weather-prediction model produced in the United States, has been notably less accurate than its chief competitor, published by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
较之二者，全球预报系统所得成功虽微不足道，但美国气象界仍对此大呼叫好。全球预报系统是美国最为先进的天气预报模型，二十多年来，它发布的天气预测准确性显然落后于它的劲敌--欧洲中期天气预报中心。
Although this deficit went largely unnoticed for years, it was laid bare by Hurricane Sandy.
多年以来，公众对此差距几乎全然不知，但是飓风桑迪的袭击让人们注意到了二者的差距。
A week before that storm's landfall in 2012, the ECMWF predicted it would veer towards the coast while the GFS showed it remaining at sea.
三年前，在飓风桑迪登陆的一周前，欧洲中期天气预报中心预测飓风会径直朝沿海运动，但全球预报系统却预测它会停留在海面。
听9.13
In response to this failure, America's Congress authorised 34m of extra money to spend on forecasting.
在这场对飓风桑迪的预测较量中全球预报系统失败了，为此美国国会批准了一笔数额高达340万美元的投资，用于升级全球预报系统。
A new version of the GFS went into operation on January 14th, and two weeks later it passed with flying colours.
1月14日，升级后的全球预报系统投入运行，仅两个星期后它就斩获成功。
On January 25th the ECMWF predicted that New York would, on the 27th, labour under 64cm (25 inches) of snow brought by the storm pictured above.
1月25日，欧洲中期天气预报中心预测纽约将在27日遭到暴雪袭击，城市积雪可达64英寸之厚。
The GFS suggested 18cm. That turned out to be far closer to the truth.It is, however, too early for the Americans to celebrate.
但全球预报系统却预报积雪厚度为18厘米，最后事实证明后者预测更为准确。全球预报系统升级之后牛刀小试便获成功，但美国人可别高兴得太早。
The GFS projection for the blizzard's western edge differed from the ECMWF's by 200km (120 miles)—a weather-forecasting hairs'-breadth.
全球预报系统对此次暴风雪的西部锋面长度与欧洲中期天气预报中心所得预测相差200公里，这个差值在本次预报中至关重要。
The only reason anyone noticed this discrepancy was that the gap happened to encompass the country's most populous city.
因为相差200公里的锋面却正好萦绕在了纽约这座美国最为繁华的都市上空，这引起了人们的注意。
This episode, moreover, may have been a fluke.
全球预报系统这次预报相对准确或为侥幸成功。
听9.14
During its three weeks of operation, the new GFS remained outclassed. On a
standard measure—predicting the altitude at which the atmospheric pressure is
half as great as at sea level—it still trails the ECMWF model.
全球预报系统投入运行的三周时间里，其预报质量远优于欧洲中期天气预报中心。但在一项对某纬度大气压强是海平面一半的标准测试中，全球预报系统仍落后于欧洲中期天气预报中心.
Nonetheless, the GFS's strong showing during January's nor'easter offers solace tocritics whofeared America would never catch up with Europe in matters
Meteorological. Weather forecasting is fiendishly complex, and improvements
tend o arise not from great leaps forward but rather an accumulation of
incremental advances.
之前批评家们担心美国在气象预报方面永远也赶不上欧洲，但是全球预报系统在1月份对暴风雪东北锋面的准确预测给予了他们一些安慰。预报天气是件极其复杂的事情，要想提高预测的准确性可不能一蹴而就而要靠慢慢积累。
The ECMWF's most obvious advantage has been in raw computing power. Its Cray XC30 supercomputer can perform up to 2 quadrillion calculations a second, about
ten times morethan the GFS hardware before the recent upgrade.
欧洲中期天气预报中心的强势之处在于它那了得的运算能力。该气象中心拥有一台Cray XC30型超级电脑，一秒内就能运算2万亿次，其运算能力是全球预报系统硬件升级前的十倍多。
听9.15
The ECMWF also deserves credit for deploying its computational force wisely. The centre was apioneer in using satellites to fill gaps in the data over the oceans, and in developing “ensembleforecasts” that generate a range of outcomes by
employing slightly different starting conditions to produce multiple predictions.
Its current model runs 52 such forecasts inparallel, each with a probability
assigned to it.
欧洲中期天气预报中心对其强大的运算能力使用分布得当亦值称赞。该中心在运用卫星进行气象观测，弥补海洋气象数据不足方面处于领先地位；此外，它还开发出一套名为“系集预报”的模型，即通过利用气象起始状况的细微不同来得出多项预测从而得到多个预报结果。欧洲中期天气预报中心现有的这个模型能同时进行52项这样的气象预测，每个预测都会得出一个预报结果。
Weather forecasters in America have full access to the ECMWF's model. However,
the United States still has good reason not to free-ride on the Europeans' work.
Private American firms have to pay for it, and the ECMWF is unlikely to develop
regional or local models focused specifically on America. Moreover, giving the
ECMWF a worthy competitor would probably lead to better forecasts overall.
美国的气象预报人员具有使用欧洲中期天气预报中心该模型的全部权限。但是美国还是找出了不搭便车的理由。一来美国私人公司要付费使用该模型，二来是欧洲中期天气预报中心也不可能针对美国开发出一套区域性更强的模型，三来欧洲中期天气预报中心是个劲敌，与之竞争或许能全面促进美国天气预报的发展。
听9.16
The new GFS has certainly narrowed the gap. Its resolution is now 13km, though itstill has only 64 layers. By November it is expected to run on a faster computer
than the ECMWF's. It could be in line for further upgrades if the new, Republican
Congress reintroduces the WeatherForecasting Improvement Act proposed last
Year-though the party's global-warming scepticsare likely to demand that much ofthe additional $120m a year the bill offered be taken away from research on
climate change.
全球预报系统升级后着实缩小了与欧洲中期天气预报中心的差距。虽然该系统大气分层能力还只能分出64层，但现如今它的气象分辨率已经能达到13千米。今年11月，全球预报系统有望将换装比欧洲中期天气预报中心运行速度更快的超级电脑。如今美国国会已是共和党人的主场了，如果他们能重新采纳去年递交的“气象预报完善法案”，那全球预报系统有望得到进一步升级。该法案要求每年给气候研究增加1200万美元的经费，虽然共和党内的“全球变暖”怀疑者们可能会要求大幅裁减这笔资金。
According to Cliff Mass, a professor of meteorology at the University of
Washington, moremoney will not be enough to catch up with the Europeans.
America, he says, must integrate its separate research and forecasting divisions,
and include more contributions from non-government experts. Compared with
pushing through cultural change in large publicbureaucracies, predicting the
weather is easy.
华盛顿大学气象学教授Cliff Mass称，即使美国投入再多的钱其天气预报的能力也无法赶上欧洲人。他说美国要想在这方面获得实质性的提高不仅得把其气候专项研究和各预报部门综合起来，还得广纳民间气候专家的建议。较之在官场推行政治文化气息变革，预测天气真算得上是简单的了。
