“
安居乐业，是中国人自古不变的追求。前段时间，各地天价学区房纷纷爆出新闻，引发全民的关注：学历日渐贬值，学区房却几乎一小时升一个价。
房子，究竟有怎样的魔力？为何大家乐此不疲地投资买房？到底房能够给我们提供温暖的蜗壳还是沉重的包袱？日本高速发展时期的泡沫经济破灭到底还有多少年会在的国内上演？
”
When a bubble is not a bubble
A severe imbalance in land supply fuels China’s wild property market
ESTATE agents in China, as elsewhere in the world, are normally a smooth-talking, self-assured bunch. But Liu Zhendong, a salesman at a large development in the northern reaches of Shanghai, is afflicted by doubts. He had expected business to be solid and steady this year. Instead, it has been manic, with clients jostling to see show apartments. Some had hoped to wait for the market to cool, but capitulated and bought as prices climbed higher week after week. Flats in the area, the once-rural village of Malu, still dotted with fields and scruffy wholesale food markets, now cost 90% more than a year ago. “It feels a bit like a bubble,” he says.
Bubble：泡泡，在金融领域用的比较多的叫泡沫。
比如：The pre-crisis bubble masked fundamental problems with the US economy.
危机之前的泡沫掩盖了美国经济中的根本性问题。
房地产泡沫property bubble，housing bubble。
severe imbalance= disproportion不平衡，不成比例。
Fuel :名词，燃料，这里fuel作动词了，为。。。。提供了燃料，其实就是激发了，在政治外交词汇中经常出现，例如fuel economic growth，意为拉动经济增长。
real ESTATE agents ：房地产代理
smooth-talking ：巧舌如簧
self-assured ：胸有成竹的
development ：在这里是开发区的意思
Reaches ：郊区，边缘区
Manic= wild ：发疯的
Dot ：点，在这里表“散布着”
Scruffy ：肮脏的
第一段一上来讲了房地产代理，和其他地方一样，他们有几个特征：巧舌如簧并且胸有成竹的。紧接着转折，讲到一个人叫刘征东，一个在上海北边开发区的销售员。这个销售员被质疑折磨着。为啥嘞？他本来期待今年稳一点，没想到
客户抢着要看展示房。一些人本来希望等市场冷静一下，但是看着市场一周一周的攀升，也就屈服了，买了。这个区域的公寓曾经是农村，周围还有农田以及破败的批发市场，现在价格却比去年增长了90%。他说：“感觉像泡沫！”
第一段讲楼市的疯狂，有人觉得这不正常，有泡沫！
Mr Liu is in good company. Even the head of the central bank’s research bureau, usually cautious in his choice of language, has said a property bubble must be stopped before it gets too big. House prices have climbed by 16% nationwide over the past year, and double or even triple that in big cities. So in the past two weeks more than 20 municipalities have tried to calm the market down—for example, by requiring higher down-payments or limiting purchases by residents of other cities.
In good company不等于in a good company，这里表示“不止他一个这么想”。
不止他一个这么想，就连央行研究中心的头儿，平常对于自己的言辞非常谨慎的人也说房产泡沫必须在变得更大前被扼制。国内房价相比去年攀升了16%，在大城市翻了两番甚至三番。所以，过去两个星期，超过20个省市试图让市场冷静下来，比如提高首付比例，或者限购。
As the past decade has shown, the ups and downs of China’s housing market are of global significance. Totting up the property sector’s impact on investment and consumption (all the furniture and gizmos that fill new homes), it accounts for about a quarter of Chinese GDP. So this year’s rebound has prompted both hope and dread. It has helped GDP growth stabilise at about 6.7%, faster than most analysts forecast in January (third-quarter data will be released on October 19th). Stronger demand for iron ore and copper has given beleaguered miners a measure of relief.
ups and downs ：起起伏伏，Life is full of ups and downs. 生活是曲折的。
Copper ：铜
过去几十年，中国方式的起伏那是有着全球意义的。房地产业的投资和消费（添置房子的家具和装饰品）总共占了我们GDP的25%。所以今年的回升是有喜也有忧啊。喜的是GDP增长速度稳定在6.7%，比大多数预测要高。对铜铁的需求给了矿企一条活路。
Optimism, however, has been tempered by concerns about the nature of the revival. Surveys indicate that about one-fifth of buyers are investors rather than owner-occupiers. CEBM, a research firm, estimates that this share rises to up to 60% in core districts of mid-sized cities. Even more worrying has been the increase in property developers’ borrowing. Zhang Zhiwei of Deutsche Bank says they face a prisoner’s dilemma: if too conservative, they will get squeezed out of the market; so they choose to be aggressive. They have driven up land prices by 66% this year, according to an index of 100 leading cities. Mr Zhang examined 252 of these land auctions and concluded that two-fifths of winning bidders will lose money if house prices level out, let alone decline.
但是乐观情绪被这种复苏的本质缓和了。复苏的本质是什么呢？研究表明：1/5的购买不是住房人是投资人。研究公司CEBM估计：中等城市的核心地段这个比例应该是60%以上。更多的担忧是，开发商借了太多钱。德意志银行的张志伟说：他们面对的囚徒困境。
到底什么是囚徒困境呢？采取激进措施就能够摆脱困境么？囚徒困境一词并不是经济学人现造的，这是一个博弈论中的术语，两个共谋犯被关入监狱，不能互相沟通。如果两个人都不揭发对方，则由于证据不确定，每个人都坐牢一年；若一人揭发，而另一人沉默，则揭发者因为立功而立即获释，沉默者因不合作而入狱五年；若互相揭发，则因证据确实，二者都判刑两年。大家猜结果会怎样？
由于囚徒无法信任对方，因此倾向于互相揭发，采取激进措施，而不是同守沉默。放置在房地产的大市场中，囚徒是谁？各大房地产商，购房者，而知晓一切游戏规则或者说牢房的建造者，则是政府。而在这一个危险游戏中，购房者作为掌握信息最少的玩家，最容易受到危害。而开发商为了达到自己的最大利益，采取激进措施，他们把土地价格给推升了66%。
这个张先生研究了252期的土地拍卖并且得出结论说即使土地价格上升，2/5的中标者都会赔钱，更别说土地价格下降了。老百姓只能捂着自己的钱包自我落泪。
The sharp rise in house prices also seems out of kilter with the broader economic picture. Income growth is slowing as the economy matures, making homes steadily less affordable. That helps explain the frenzy in the market. During a holiday week at the start of October, huge crowds swamped sales centres when new properties were put on the market. In Shanghai, divorces have spiked as people take advantage of a loophole in regulations. Couples can get a preferential mortgage rate only on their first home. Divorced spouses can benefit by buying homes separately and then remarrying.
The sharp rise in house prices also seems out of kilter with the broader economic picture.
out of kilter with sth ：与…格格不入。
所以这句话就是房价的飙升和更广的经济蓝图格格不入。
Spike ：突然上升
regulation loophole ：政策漏洞
随着经济成熟，收入增长速度变慢了，导致的结果就是：房价已经负担不起了。这解释了市场的疯狂。新楼盘一面市，人群就挤爆了售楼中心。下面讲了一个非常有中国特色的现象：假离婚。在上海，离婚率迅速上升，因为人们利用买房的制度漏洞，通过离婚获得比较好的贷款利率：夫妻只能第一套房有一个首付比率，但是离婚的夫妻就可以买两套了。
Such behaviour smacks of irrational exuberance, but caution is in order before delivering that verdict. Investors, analysts and the press have been predicting Chinese real-estate Armageddon for the better part of a decade. But there has been no nationwide crash. Prices have weakened for a time, typically when the government clamps down on buying, only to take off again every few years.
Smack ：扇巴掌，煽动
Chinese real-estate Armageddon[ˌɑ:rməˈgedn] ：中国房地产末日
clamp down ：严厉打击；强制执行；严禁；施压
这样的行为煽起了不理性的繁荣，但是在做出裁决之前要小心注意。投资者，分析师和媒体近10年来都在预测中国房地产末日要来了。但是房地产没有崩溃。政府采取措施时价格下降了一段时间，但很快又回升了。
For all the signs of excess, officials have in fact done well to guard against the biggest potential vulnerability: over-borrowing by homebuyers. Despite a recent surge in mortgage lending, household balance-sheets are on the whole in good shape. Moreover, strict down-payment rules mean that buyers typically put up cash for as much as half the price of the home. Even if prices fall, they are unlikely to walk away from their mortgage debt. This helps insure against the downward spiral of foreclosures and falling prices that has wreaked havoc in other countries.
vulnerability [ˌvʌlnərə'bɪlətɪ] ：脆弱
downward spiral [ˈdaʊnwəd ˈspaɪrəl] ：恶性循环
官方做的还不错，防止最大的危机：购房者的过度借贷。
过度借贷：比如在早期的上海有一种玩法是这样的：首付一套房子，然后卖掉它，用得到的全款同时再购入3套，再从三套里卖掉一套，然后用这个卖房的钱再入三套，这样持续玩着，就可以很低成本的炒房了。当然后来限购和二套房首付提高这种限制出来之后确实限制了普通人这么玩，但是专业玩家还是可以继续的。
严格的按揭贷款规则相当于让购房者支付了房价一半的费用了。即使房价下跌，他们也不可能从自己的房贷中脱身。这有利于应对丧失抵押品赎回权带来的恶性循环以及已经带给其他国家极大伤害的价格下跌。
This is not to deny that the Chinese property market faces serious problems. But “bubble” may be a misdiagnosis. The real pathology is a severe imbalance in land supply, argues Larry Hu of Macquarie Securities. Smaller cities have plenty of land for building but shrinking populations. Big cities, where people actually want to live and work, are sitting on large land banks but releasing only small plots. Shanghai has about 1,800 sq km of farmland but sold only five sq km for home-building last year. The result, predictably, has been soaring home prices.
Shrink ：缩水。这里有一个很有趣的用法，Shrink也可意为心理咨询师，是 俚语head-shrinker的简称，为什么心理医生被称之为缩头人呢？你想想当精神压力很大，满腹心事的时候，特别容易觉得自己一个头有两个大，脑子都要被烦恼挤爆了的感觉。而通过心理医生的诊疗调适，慢慢地心结就解开了，问题也想通了，精神上的压力也就减小了，感觉好像头脑又缩回到正常的大小，这就是head-shrinker的由来。
Soaring ：嗖嗖的涨，不知道大家想到了关于增长的词还有哪些？booming，爆炸式增长~boosting…. 蹭蹭的涨~
这并不是否认中国房地产市场面临严重问题。但是泡沫也许是一个误判。那么真正原因是什么呢？土地供给的严重失衡。怎么个不平衡呢？小城市：足够多的土地，但是人口在下降。至于大城市，想买都买不到房。列了上海的数据作为例子，最终结果是房价嗖嗖的涨。
Why not sell much more land in big cities? Doing so would fundamentally alter the rules of the game, causing pain for lots of important players, Mr Hu argues. Governments in big cities count on incremental land sales as a source of revenue; governments in small cities hope the restrictions will eventually send people their way. This is, in other words, a political problem as much as an economic one.
alter the rules of the game ：改变游戏规则
既然是土地供应的问题，那大城市为啥不能卖更多土地呢？这么做相当于从本质上改变了游戏规则，导致主要玩家比较痛苦。大城市的政府指望着把逐步的土地销售当作一个收入来源。小城市的政府则希望，限购可以把大家送到自己这里来。所以我们可以看出来，这是一个经济问题，同时也是一个政治问题呢。
Mr Liu, the agent at the Malu development, knows both sides of the property market. A few years ago he bought a flat in his home town of Jiuhuashan, a five-hour drive to the south-west. It now gathers dust, empty except for a week during the Chinese New Year holiday, when he returns home. Still young, he has no intention of moving back to Jiuhuashan permanently. The mountains there are stunning but the economy sleepy. Rather, Mr Liu hopes to buy a home in Shanghai eventually and has started saving up for it. The booming prices of the past year have kept him busy at work, but pushed his dream ever further into the distance.
这里继续说到刘先生，他了解房地产市场的两面。他在自己老家买了房子，可是只有过年回家一次，其他时候房子都是空的，还年轻，又不想太早回去。而刘先生呢，想在上海买房，已经开始存款了，然而梦想和现实距离越来越远。去年房价的飙升使得他忙于工作，但是也让他距离自己的梦想越来越远。
所以借鉴任志强叔叔的一句话：所有买不起房的人都是因为没有努力工作。不说了，挣不了一个亿，看来得逃离北上广了。
英文原文：
http://www.economist.com/news
讲解：霞姐 / Tiassa / 魔力校花
编排 / 校对：魔力校花
版权归魔力学院所有，鼓励转发，转载也可
关注我们，成为英语狠牛的商界精英😉
往期文章：
《Brexit——Doing it the hard way》
《What do Donald Trump and Jack Ma have in common 》
《Reality television：China’s transgender Oprah》
《Gender budgeting--The fiscal mystique》
《Smartphones in China: Upstarts on top》
