Companies’ investment plans : From diggers to data centers

企业投资计划：从挖掘机到数据中心

Computers, research and software will be the big-ticket items in 2016

计算机、科研、软件将是2016年的大额支出项目

THERE have been three great waves of corporate investment[与标题里的Companies’ investment同义替换]in the past two decades. First came the dotcom（网络）splurge（挥霍）[互联网泡沫]of 1997-2001, when cash was poured into building mobile-phone networks（移动电话网）and the internet’s backbone（骨干）. Then there was thee merging-market（新兴市场）frenzy（狂热）of 2003-10. Western firms threw about $2 trillion into[与poured into同义替换]factories and other facilities in places like China and India. In 2005-13 there was a craze for commodities, partly driven by insatiable（无法满足的）Chinese demand. Global energy and metals firms spent $6trillion（万亿）digging in the Australian outback（内陆地区，尤指澳大利亚的）and drilling（钻井）for oil in North Dakota and deep beneath（在…之下）Brazil’s（巴西）coastal（近海的，沿海的，海岸的）waters.

过去20年里，企业投资掀起过三次大潮。先是1997年至2001年的互联网泡沫时期，大量资金涌入移动电话网及互联网骨干网的建设中。然后是2003年至2010年的新兴市场狂热期。西方企业向中国和印度等地的工厂及其他设施大量砸钱，投资约两万亿美元。2005年至2013年则掀起了大宗商品热潮，部分源于中国庞大需求的推动。全球能源及金属企业投入六万亿美元分别在澳大利亚内陆地区开采资源，在美国北达科他州及巴西近海的海底钻探石油。

The dotcom boom turned to bust（破裂）,emerging markets are no win poor shape（状况不佳）and commodity prices have slumped（下跌的）in the past year (costing some firms’ bosses their jobs[cost sb. sth.使某人失去什么。这里指使老板们失去工作]— see previous article). So where are companies looking to invest now? A new study by Hugo Scott-Gall, of Goldman Sachs, a bank,crunches the numbers（用计算机处理大量数字）for capital investment at more than 2,500 firms worldwide, forecasting how things will look in 2017 compared with 2014. It finds a startling divergence（差异）across industries.

互联网泡沫最终破裂，新兴市场如今状况不佳，大宗商品价格则在过去一年一落千丈（已致使部分公司老板下台）。那么，企业现在都往何处投资？由高盛银行的雨果·斯科特-高尔（Hugo Scott-Gall）做的一项新研究分析了全球2500多家企业的资本投资数字，对2017年的情况（相比2014年）作出预测。研究发现，各行业呈现惊人的差别。

Energy,mining（采矿业）and chemicals firms are expected to（预计；有望做某事；被期待做某事）slash（大量消减）their capital-investment budgets（资本投资预算）by 20-50% .Property firms（房地产公司）are cutting back[=slash]too,in part（部分地）reflecting the end of China’s building boom（建设热潮）. This has a knock-on effect（连锁反应）on those capital-goods firms（资本货物公司）that supply equipment to these industries. For example,Caterpillar[n. 卡特彼勒（财富500强公司之一，总部所在地美国，主要经营工业农业设备；还有毛毛虫、履带车的意思。毛毛虫是不是很像履带车？], which makes diggers used by mining and construction firms, expects its capital investment in 2016 to be half the level of 2012.

据估计，能源、矿业、化工企业预计将削减20%至50%的资本投资预算。房地产企业也在缩减投资，部分反映了中国的建筑热潮已经终结。向这些行业供应设备的资本商品企业也受到连锁影响。比如，采矿及建筑用挖掘机的生产商卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）在2016年的资本投资额预计仅为2012年的一半。

In contrast（与此相反，相比之下）, internet, software and other tech firms（科技公司）are on a high（be on a high处于兴奋状态，此处译为热情高涨）, with their budgets expected to expand by a quarter or more. Though some tech firms have gone asset-light（轻资产）,renting（出租）their processing power（处理能力）and data storage（数据存储）in the online “cloud”（在线云）, others— including cloud-providers（云供应商）themselves— are splurging on（v. 挥霍；浪费）hardware（硬件）.In 2016 the combined capital spending of Google and Apple will be $24 billion, almost equal to（等于）Exxon’s $28 billion budget.

相比之下，互联网、软件及其他科技公司投资热情高涨，预算估计将扩大四分之一或更多。虽然部分科技公司已转向轻资产模式，向在线“云”租用数据处理及存储能力，但其他科技公司则在硬件设备上大肆投资，包括云供应商本身。2016年，谷歌和苹果的资本支出加起来将达到240亿美元，几乎相当于埃克森美孚280亿美元的预算。

Measured in dollars, the overall picture（总体状况）is of a 15% fall in corporate capital spending by 2017.Allowing for（这里译为扣除）the greenback’s big rise since 2014, the fall will be just 5% or so in local-currency terms（以当地货币计算）. And the figures exclude（排除）research-and-development (R&D) spending. That is rising quickly. America’s national accounts, for example, show an economy-wide decline in investment in physical plant（实体工厂）being offset（抵消）by a rise in R&D and software spending.

以美元计算，截至2017年，企业资本支出估计将总体下跌15%。如果剔除2014年以来美元大幅升值的因素，以当地货币计算，资本支出跌幅将仅为5%左右。而且这些数字未包含目前正迅速上升的研发支出。例如，美国国民核算数据显示，研发和软件上的投资增长抵消了整体经济实体工厂投资的下滑。

However you slice（这里译为解析）the numbers【1】, growth in capital investment is unusually concentrated（集中的）. Of the industries that Goldman studied, 22 are forecast to have shrinking budgets in dollar terms（以美元计算）and 12 are expected to grow. The top 20 spenders onR&D（研发，abbr. 研究与开发（research and development））— firms such as Samsung, Roche, Novartis and Microsoft—account for（对…负有责任；对…做出解释；说明……的原因；导致；（比例）占）25%of worldwide R&D spending by listed firms（上市公司）, according to Bloomberg, an information provider.The corporate world（企业界）seems mostly destined to（注定要，命运注定）stagnation（停滞）, with only a few hotspots（热点）of investment and growth.

注释:

1,However you slice（这里译为解析）the numbers,开头的这个短句拿出来说一下。经过查字典。查到如下解释，可以看出来作者是根据这个固定的用法写成的句子。字典内容如下：

any way you slice it (also no matter how you slice it) mainly US informal

» in whatever way the matter is considered

不管从哪方面考虑

He shouldn't have hit her, any way you slice it.

无论如何他都不应该动手打她。

无论怎样解析这些数字，资本投资的增长都异常集中。高盛研究的行业中，有22个预计会缩减投资预算（以美元计算），有12个行业则有望增加投资。据资讯提供商彭博的数据，包括三星、罗氏、诺华、微软在内，研发预算最高的20家企业占了全球上市公司研发支出的25%。企业界似乎大多注定陷入停滞，只有少数几个投资及增长热点。

So investors might hope that an elite（精英）of investment-intensive,（投资密集型）technology-based（以科技为本）firms will conquer new markets and increase profits faster than all others. That is certainly what Silicon Valley’（硅谷）s boosters（支持者）think will happen. They cheer each time tech firms unveil（推出）some new area of expansion（拓展）—smart watches,driverless cars,virtual-reality goggles,delivery drones.[背诵这些名词有利于写作。]

所以，投资者也许希望有一批以科技为本的投资密集型精英企业能征服新市场，比其他所有公司都更快地提高利润。硅谷的支持者深信这绝对会实现。每当科技企业拓展至新领域，推出诸如智能手表、无人驾驶汽车、虚拟现实眼镜、快递无人机等产品时，他们都会欢呼雀跃。

Yet history suggests that whenever there isa near-unanimous view（近乎一致的观点）on what to invest in, disaster follows as firms in those industries[此处译为行业，熟词辟义]lose their spending discipline. The shares of Western firms exposed to energy and emerging markets have lagged（落后的）theS&P 500 index（标普 500 指数）by over 50% in the past two years. In 2016 it should become clearer whether the present funneling（使〔资金、信息等〕汇集（集中）;）of investment into tech-based industries reflects a step change（巨变）in the way the economy works,or[用whether…or…连接，你看出来了吗？]is just a symptom（症状）of a stagnant（停滞的）climate[局势，形势，症状。又是一个熟词辟义，你是不是翻译为气候呢？哈哈。]in which pockets of opportunity are hyped（大肆宣传）beyond their true potential.[最后这个句子好好体会哈。好长的。]

但历史经验表明，每当人们普遍看好某个投资领域时，那些行业的企业往往会不再遵守投资纪律，导致灾难性收场。过去两年，受能源业及新兴市场影响的西方企业的股价一直落后于标普500指数50%还多。目前大量投资涌向科技产业的现象究竟是反映了经济运行方式的一大跃变，还是经济停滞的又一症状— —机遇的潜力被大肆吹嘘而名不副实？答案在2016年应该会变得更加清晰。