巴菲特1963年度信一(六)。2024-09-16

英文早读第62篇,选自巴菲特年度信,友才翻译。

"Workouts" - These are the securities with a timetable. They arise from corporate activity -sell-outs, mergers, reorganizations, spin-offs, etc. In this category we are not talking about rumors or "inside information" pertaining to such developments, but to publicly announced activities of this sort. We wait until we can read it in the paper. The risk pertains not primarily to general market behavior (although that is sometimes tied in to a degree), but instead to something unsetting the applecart so that the expected development does not materialize. Such killjoys could include anti-trust or other negative government action, stockholder disapproval, withholding of tax rulings, etc. The gross profits in many workouts appear quite small. A friend refers to this as getting the last nickel after the other fellow has made the first ninety-five cents. However, the predictability coupled with a short holding period produces quite decent annual rates of return. This category produces more steady absolute profits from year to year than generals do. In years of market decline, it piles up a big edge for us; during bull markets, it is a drag on performance. On a long term basis, I expect it to achieve the same sort of margin over the Dow attained by generals.
“套利类”——这些是有时间表的股票。他们从公司活动中获利——出售、合并、重组、分立等等。在这一范畴我们不是在讨论谣言或者“内幕”来获得发展,而是这些公司公开发布的活动。我们等待直到可以在报纸上读到。这个风险主要不是存在于市场行为(尽管他在某种程度上有关联),而是那些可能打乱进度表的事最终让预期的发展没有实现。这些让人扫兴的事包括反垄断或其他负面的政府行为、股东反对、税收规则拒绝等等。在很多套利类中净收益似乎很小。一个朋友指出这是在同行已经先赚了95美分之后去获得最后的5美分。然而,这个伴随短期可预测性给了可观的年回报率。这个范畴产生了比一般类更加稳定的年复一年的绝对收益。在市场下降的年份,他给我们积累了大的领先;在牛市,他是我们表现的拖累。在长期来看,我希望他可以和一般类一样达到领先道琼斯的水平。

"Controls" - These are rarities, but when they occur they are likely to be of significant size. Unless we start off with the purchase of a sizable block or stock, controls develop from the general category. They result from situations where a cheap security dose nothing price-wise for such an extended period of time that we are able to buy a significant percentage of the company's stock. At that point we are probably in a position to assume some degree of, or perhaps, complete, control of the company's activities; whether we become active or remain relatively passive at this point depends upon our assessment of the company's future and the management's capabilities. The general we have been buying the most aggressively in recent months possesses excellent management following policies that appear to make a very good sense to us. If our continued buying puts us in a controlling position at some point in the future, we will probably remain very passive regarding the operation or this business.
“控制类”——这是珍品,但是当他们发生时,他们可能是重要的规模。除非我们以购买大规模股票开始,控制类由一般类发展而来。他们源自一个便宜的股票在长期一段时间价格不敏感以至于我们可以购买公司股份的较大比例。在这一点上,我们可能会获得某种程度,或许是完全,控制公司的活动;无论我们变得活跃或者保持相对消极,在这点上取决于我们对公司未来和管理能力的评估。我们最近月份激进购买的一般类股票拥有卓越的管理和遵守让我们感觉良好的政策。如果我们持续的购买让我们在未来某点上处于控制类位置,我们将可能会保持非常消极考虑到现在的运作和生意。

We do not want to get active merely for the sake of being active. Everything else being equal I would much rather let others do the work. However, when an active role is necessary to optimize the employment of capital you can be sure we will not be standing in the wings.
我们不会仅仅为了变得活跃而活跃。任何其他事情如果结果相同我都倾向于让别人去做。然而,当活跃的角色是为了优化资本使用必要时,你可以确信我不会只站在旁边的。

Active or passive, in a control situation there should be a built-in profit. The sine qua non of this operation is an attractive purchase price. Once control is achieved, the value of our investment is determined by the value of the enterprise, not the oftentimes irrationalities of the marketplace.
无论活跃还是消极,控制类都应该有内置的利润。这个运作必不可少的一点是购买价格。一旦控制类达成,我们的投资价值由公司价值决定,而不是市场频繁的非理性波动。

Our willingness and financial ability to assume a controlling position gives us two-way stretch on many purchases in our group of generals. If the market changes its opinion for the better, the security will advance in price. If it doesn't, we will continue to acquire stock until we can look to the business itself rather than the market for vindication of our judgment.
我们的意愿和财务能力去获得控制类位置带给我们的一般类组合两条延伸路线。如果市场改变了他的观点变得更好,这个股票将会价格上涨。如果市场没有,我们将继续获得股票直到我们可以看生意本身而不是等市场去论证我们的判断。

Investment results in the control category have to be measured on the basis of at least several years. Proper buying takes time. If needed, strengthening management, re-directing the utilization of capital, perhaps effecting a satisfactory sale or merger, etc., are also all factors that make this a business to be measured in years rather than months. For this reason, in controls, we are looking for wide margins of profit-if it looks at all close, we pass.
控制类范畴的投资结果得需要至少几年时间才可以测量。如果需要,强化管理、调整资本使用、可能的有效的令人满意的出售或合并等等,同样也是这些因素会让这个生意需要几年而不是几个月来测量。由于这个原因,在控制类,我们需要寻找广泛的盈利边界——如果这些都关闭了,我们就会忽视掉这个股票。

Control in the buying stage move largely in symphathy with the Dow. In the later stages their behavior is geared more to that of workouts.
控制类在购买阶段和道琼斯很大程度上同步。在他们的后期,行为和套利类相仿。

As I have mentioned in the past, the division of our portfolio among the three categories is largely determined by the accident or availability. Therefore, in a minus year for thd Dow, whether we are primarily in generals or workouts is largely a matter of luck, but it will have a great deal to do with our performance relative to the Dow. This is one or many reasons why a single year's performance is of minor importance and, good or bad, should never be taken too seriously.
如我过去提到的,我们的组合在这三个范畴里的分配很大程度上由偶然性或者可获得性决定。因此,在道琼斯下跌的年份,无论我们主要是在一般类还是套利类很大程度上取决于运气,但是他将很大程度影响我们相对于道琼斯的表现。这就是一个或者说很多理由为什么一个单独年份的表现是最不重要的,并且好坏都不应该当真。

If there is any trend as our assets grow, I would expect it to be toward controls which heretofore have been our smallest category. I may be wrong in this expectation - a great deal depends, of course, on the future behavior of the market on which your guess is as good as mine (I have none). At this writing, we have a majority of our capital in generals, workouts rank second, and controls are third.
如果我们的资产有上涨趋势,我将会希望他流向控制类,在此之前他是我们最小的范畴。在这个期望上我或许错了——好的交易当然取决于未来的市场行为,或许你的猜测和我一样好(我没有任何猜测)。写到此时,我们大部分资金在一般类,套利类排第二,控制类排第三。

68.rumor:谣言;谣传
69.pertain:适用;存在
70.killjoy:使人扫兴的人;大煞风景的人
71.anti-trust:反垄断
72.disapproval:反对;不赞成
73.withholding:不给;拒绝给;扣缴税款
74.rarity:罕见;稀有;稀世珍品
75.passive:被动的;消极的;被动语态的
76.possess:具有;拥有;有;控制;支配
77.sake:缘故;利益;目的;理由
78.wing:翼;派;边厢;测面;侧厅
79.sine qua non:必要条件
80.irrationality:非理性;无理性;不合理
81.marketplace:市场
82.vindication:平反;辩证;辨别;辩护
83.re-directing:调整;重新定向

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