前 言
过而不改，是谓过矣！
——孔子（中国思想家，公元前 6- 前 5 世纪）
人类行为的本质是什么？美国小说家马克·吐温缘何
发出“人类本性难改”的感慨？
我们毕生追求什么——健康的体魄、和睦的家庭抑或是成功的事业？那又是什么成为我们达成愿望的绊脚石？是恐惧、愤怒、忧虑、失望或压力等情绪，还是挫折、失误、损失和不切实际的期望等带来的失落感？或许我们看错了人，误判了局势，错过了时机或投资 ；也许我们选错了职业、伴侣、投资或居住点。这都是哪些原因造成的？
这是一本探索智慧的书。伯克夏·哈撒韦董事会副主席查理·芒格曾说 ：“我想知道我将死于何处，这样我好从别处绕道，永不踏进此地。”该书就是本着这样的精神创作而成。世界上有通往忧愁和苦恼的通道，如果理解了人类“如何”和“为何”“忧愁和烦恼”，将有助于我们绕道而行。
该书重点讲述影响人类思维的因素，以及人类作出错误决策的深层原因，同时提供一些可改善思维方式的工具。只要理解是什么因素左右了人类思维，就可避免此类陷阱，并更能理解他人的做法。如果能清楚知道对我们有益或无益的方法，去除糟粕，取其精华，找到推理的基本框架，我们就能作出更好的判断。虽然人类无法避免错误，但可防患于未然，特别是对于一些毁灭性的错误而言。
如何成为智者？仅仅审视自己的错误不足以提高自我。要知道事物运行规律的最好方法无疑是拿来主义——从别人的经验学习。查理·芒格曾说 ：“我始终相信从别人那里学到现成精华的道理，不喜欢一个人坐在那里空想。因为还没有人能聪明到那种程度。”
16 世纪的法国散文家蒙田说 ：“如想纠正自己的无知，必先承认它。”我孜孜不倦地追求着智慧，部分是审视自身所犯的错误，此外也是观察别人所得，还借鉴了查理·芒格的人生哲学。芒格思维明晰、质朴，在我认识的人中实属罕见。而给我莫大影响的要属他关于生活智慧的演讲，许多演讲目前已被转载于《杰出投资者文摘》。他曾在其中一篇演讲中表示，成为智者最好的方法就是学习现实生活中的“真知灼见”。在另一篇演讲中，他谈到查尔斯·达尔文是有史以来最伟大的思想家之一。从达尔文身上，我们可以知道，即使不是天才，如能培养出某种思维习惯，也能在思想上超越他人。
为了进一步了解和学习达尔文的思维习惯，我开始阅读他的自传和有关他的书籍。我发觉他散发着强烈的人格魅力，为人公平客观，可视为人类的典范。他在自传中说 ：
在捕捉易于被人忽略的事物上，我觉得我的观察敏锐度和深度要高于普通人。同我的观察力和搜集事实的能力一样，我的勤奋也要高于一般人。更为重要的是，我对自然科学的热爱持久且热切……从我很小的时候，我就热衷于理解和解释观察到的现象，也就是说，热衷于利用一些普通法则来概括事实和分类。因为这些原因，使得我多年来对于不能解释的现象仍保持耐心的关注和思索。我的自我评价是从不盲从。多年来，我努力让自己的心智保持客观和自由，不管我对某种假设多么情有独钟（因为对于每个问题，我都会不由自主地形成自己的假设），一旦相反的事实摆在面前，我总能坦然放弃任何一种假设。
达尔文加深了我对人类行为深层原因的兴趣，为了改进我的思维方式，我博览群书 ：从生物学、心理学、神经科学、物理学到数学。正如 17 世纪法国哲学家勒内·笛卡尔所说的：“阅读好书就似跟往昔最优秀的人物交谈。”
我开始记录下我的所思所悟，从而也就促成了本书的出版。书中的思想主要来源于他人作品，因而它是融会各种思想而成。罗马诗人泰伦斯（Publius Terentius）曾说 ：“古人似乎已经把该说的都说光了。”我把前人的成果浓缩出来，用更为实用的形式表达出来，同时附上自己的结论。
在这本书中，你会发现它集成了众多科学伟人的智慧结晶，如达尔文、阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦、理查德·费曼等，当然还包括世上最为成功的两位企业家和投资家 ：查理·芒格以及伯克夏·哈撒韦公司的主席沃伦·巴菲特。爱因斯坦曾说过，一个世纪中诞生的具有清醒头脑和高尚品格的杰出人士屈指可数。沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格就是这样的人。我要大力感谢他们那些具有启发性和激励性的观点。如果我能够早点听取他们的意见——或许就能够避免许多重大失误。所以，他们是我心中的英雄！
我建议所有的人都应读读伯克夏·哈撒韦公司以及威斯科金融公司（查理·芒格担任该公司的董事长）的历年年报。这些报告是教育我们如何思考投资和交易的最好工具，其中的道理也可作为我们生活的向导。
本书可分为四部分。第一部分，探讨了影响我们思维的因素，这也是全书的基础篇章。第二部分，我举出一些因为心理学上的原因而导致误判的例子。第三部分阐述导致误判的原因，如心理学方面的原因和物理学和数学基础知识缺乏的原因。最后一部分，我探讨了改善思维的工具。附录中包括查理·芒格的演讲，芒格和沃伦·巴菲特的一些经典语段。此外，书中还列出了一些清单。这些清单常常有助于消除偏见，同时易于让我们检查是否遗漏重点。
为什么要花时间学习智慧？查理·芒格给出一个具有说服力的理由 ：“如果你能够掌握简单和基本的生活智慧，而你却不愿努力，这是一个巨大的损失。因为它能让你更好地为人为己服务，同时也能让生活更加丰富多彩……我就对智慧孜孜不倦。同样，我还对精确充满热情，并保持旺盛的好奇心。”
这本书就是送给那些热衷于探索智慧的人，我重点阐述了那些永不过时的观点。对于每个观点所花篇幅不同，但并不能就此区分它们的重要性，因为我的目标就是建立一个知识基础。
西班牙 16 世纪小说家塞万提斯曾表示 ：“一本书的出版面临一个最大的问题，即众口难调，没有什么比得到所有人的赞同更为困难的事情了。”你们可能觉得书中忽略了许多重要问题，或者有些内容又被过分夸大了。作为本书的作者，我有责任对书中的内容负责，对其中的错误或者不当之处承担全责。如果读者确定书中存在一些明显错误，烦请按照扉页上的地址给我发邮件说明。
我在书中引用了大量的文献。有些书和资料尤为有用，特别是查尔斯·达尔文的书。还有查理·芒格和沃伦·巴菲特的演讲和报告等，其中大部分引文均来自于优秀的时事报刊《杰出投资者文摘》的节选片段。读者可以参考文后的参考文献部分。亚利桑那州立大学 (Arizona State University) 心 理 学 教 授 罗 伯 特· 西 奥 迪 尼 (Robert Cialdini)在其优秀的著作《影响力》（Influence ）中把社会心理学的研究成果做了一个绝妙的综述。心理学教授丹尼尔·卡尼曼（Daniel Kahneman） 以 及 阿 莫 斯· 特 沃 斯 基（AmosTversky）在决策上面的研究同样让人受益匪浅。理查德·费曼（1918-1988）可能是现代最具光芒和影响力的物理学家，同时也是位杰出的教师。我热爱他的著作和自传。晚些时候的人类生态学家加勒特·哈丁 (Garrett Hardin) 教授同样也是我的最爱之一。他的著作极有价值，为如何明晰地思考提出了许多方法。而我也很有幸能够参观加州的神经科学研究所。每次去那里参观，我都能学到有关人类大脑运作的新知识。
在本书中，有时我称呼读者为“我们”，有时又使用“你们”。但请记住，“你们”中也包括我这位作者。意大利数学家和哲学家 Gian-Carlo Rota 曾经在《整体思维》（IndiscreteThoughts ）中表示 ：“我们给他人的建议同时也是自己所要采纳的。”
书中没有使用“他或她”，而是使用“他”。引用一位英国动物学家——也是牛津大学科学公共理解学的教授 ：理查德·道金斯（Richard Dawkins）在其著作《盲眼钟表匠》（The Blind Watchmaker ）的说法是 ：“我把我的读者称作‘他’，并非仅仅特指那些男性读者，就像一位法国人在说话中把一个桌子说成是阴性的一样①。”
让我们现在就开始这智慧之旅吧，我希望它是激动人心的奇妙之旅！
INTRODUCTION
A man who has committed a mistake and doesn't correct it, is committing another mistake.
- Confucius (Chinese thinker, 6th to 5th Century BC)
Why do we behave like we do? American writer Mark Twain once wrote: "The character of the human race never changes, it is permanent." Why is it so?
What do we want out of life? To be healthy, happy with our families, in our work, etc? What interferes with this? Isn't it often emotions like fear, anger, worry, disappointment, stress, and sadness caused by problems, mistakes, losses, or unreal expectations? Maybe we misjudged people, situations, the time or some investment. We chose the wrong occupation, spouse, investment, or place to live. Why?
This book is about searching for wisdom. It is in the spirit of Charles Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. who says, ''All I want to know is where I'm going to die so I'll never go there." There are roads that lead to unhappiness. An understanding of how and why we can "die" should help us avoid them.
This book focuses on how our thoughts are influenced, why we make misjudgments and tools to improve our thinking. If we understand what influences us, we might avoid certain traps and understand why others act like they do. And if we learn and understand what works and doesn't work and find some framework for reasoning, we will make better judgments. We can't eliminate mistakes, but we can prevent those that can really hurt us.
How do we achieve wisdom? It is hard to improve ourselves simply by looking at our own mistakes. The best way to learn what, how and why things work is to learn from others. Charles Munger says, "1 believe in the discipline of mastering the best that other people have ever figured out. I don't believe in just sitting down and trying to dream it all up yourself Nobody's that smart. "
The 16th Century French essayist Michel de Montaigne said: ''Anyone who wishes to be cured of ignorance must first admit to it." My quest for wisdom originates partly from making mistakes myself and observing those of others but also from the philosophy of Charles Munger. A man whose simplicity and clarity of thought is unequal to anything I have seen. What especially influenced me were his lectures on worldly wisdom, many of them reproduced in the newsletter Outstanding Investor Digest. In one speech, he said that the best way to achieve wisdom was to learn the big ideas that underlie reality. In another, he referred to Charles Darwin as one of the best thinkers who ever lived. Darwin's lesson is that even people who aren't geniuses can outthink the rest of mankind if they develop certain thinking habits.
To learn more about Darwin's habits, I started to read his autobiography and other writings about him. I found him to be a fascinating character and a wonderful lesson on objectivity. In his autobiography, Darwin said:
I think that I am superior to the common run of men in noticing things which easily escape attention, and in observing them carefully. My industry has been nearly as great as it could have been in the observation and collection of facts. What is far more important, my love of natural science has been steady and ardent ... From my early youth I have had the strongest desire to understand or explain whatever I observed, that is, to group all facts under some general laws. These causes combined have given me the patience to reflect or ponder for any number of years over any unexplained problem. As far as I can judge, I am not apt to follow blindly the lead of other men. I have steadily endeavoured to keep my mind free so as to give up any hypothesis, however much beloved (and I cannot resist forming one on every subject), as soon as facts are shown to be opposed to it.
Darwin reinforced my interest in understanding human behavior. To improve my own thinking, I read books in biology, psychology, neuroscience, physics, and mathematics. fu the 17th Century French philosopher Rene Descartes said: "The reading of all good books is like conversation with the finest minds of past centuries."
I started to write down what I learned. The result is this book. The ideas in it are built largely from the works and thoughts of others. fu the Roman poet Publius Terentius (c.190-159 BC) wrote: "Nothing has yet been said that's not been said before." I have condensed what others have written in a usable form and added my own conclusions.
In this book you find a broad-based collection of wisdom from outstanding scientists like Darwin, Albert Einstein, Richard Feynman, and two of the world's most successful businessmen and investors, Charles Munger and the Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett. Albert Einstein once said that there are only a few enlightened people with a lucid mind and good taste within a century. Warren Buffett and Charles Munger are such people. lowe a great debt to them whose messages have been instructional as well as encouraging. IfI had listened to them earlier in my life - so many expensive mistakes would have been avoided. They are my heroes!
I advise all of you ro read the annual reports of Berkshire Hathaway and Wesco Financial (Charles Munger is chairman). These reports are the best educational tools about how to think about investing and business. The lessons also show us how to behave in life.
This book has four parts. First, I explore what influences our thinking. This serves as a foundation. In the second part, I give examples of psychological reasons for misjudgments. The third part explores reasons for misjudgments caused both by our psychology and a lack of considering some basic ideas from physics and mathematics. In the final part I reveal tools for better thinking. The appendix contains a speech from Charles Munger and quotes from Munger and Warren Buffett. It also contains checklists. Checklists often eliminate biases and make it easier for us to be sure we've covered the important things.
Why spend time studying wisdom? Charles Munger gives a compelling reason: "I think it's a huge mistake not to absorb elementary worldly wisdom if you're capable of doing it because it makes you better able to serve others, it makes you better able to serve yourself and it makes life more fun ... I'm passionate about wisdom. I'm passionate about accuracy and some kinds of curiosity."
This book is for those who love the constant search for knowledge. I have focused on explaining timeless ideas. The number of pages I have devoted to each idea does not reflect on its importance. My goal is to lay the foundation.
16th Century Spanish writer Miguel de Cervantes said: "He that publishes a book runs a very great hazard, since nothing can be more impossible than to compose one that may secure the approbation of every reader." You may feel that much has been ignored and what is left has been exaggerated. Since I am writing this, I take full responsibility for the content. Any mistakes or inaccuracies are my responsibility. If you, the reader, are convinced that I am clearly wrong about anything in this book, please send me an e-mail at the address given in the beginning of the book.
I have cited quotations from a wide range of sources. Some books and material have been especially useful. Obviously, books about Charles Darwin. Also speeches and reports from Charles Munger and Warren Buffett. Most of these quotes are excerpted text from the excellent newsletter, Outstanding Investor Digest. The reader should refer to the source note section for the source of the excerpt. Robert Cialdini, Regents Professor of Psychology at Arizona State University, gives an excellent summary of findings in social psychology in his great book Influence. Psychology Professors Daniel Kahneman and the late Amos Tversky's work on decision-making has also been useful. Richard Feynman (1918-1988), perhaps the most brilliant and influential physicist of modern times, was also a spellbinding teacher. I love his books and autobiographies. The late Human Ecology Professor Garrett Hardin is one of my favorites. His books are treasures and offer many ways for clear thinking. I have also been fortunate to visit the Neurosciences Institute in California. Every time I'm there, I learn something new about how our brain works.
I sometimes write in terms of "we" , and other times I address "you", the reader. Just remember, "you" includes me, the writer. Italian mathematician and philosopher Gian-Carlo Rota's said in Indiscrete Thoughts: "The advice we give others is the advice that we ourselves need."
Instead of writing "he" or "she", I have used "he". To quote the British zoologist, Professor of the public understanding of Science at Oxford University, Richard Dawkins from The Blind "Watchmaker: "I may refer to the 'reader' as 'he', but I no more think of my readers as specifically male than a French speaker thinks of a table as female."
Let's start the journey for wisdom. I hope it will be inspiring.
Peter Bevelin
