Decision-thinking is not unlike poker—it often matters not only what you think, but also what others think you think and what you think they think you think. The mental process is similar. Naturally, this card game has often been of considerable interest to people who are, by any standards, good thinkers.
决策思维和玩扑克没什么不同——它不仅关系到你的想法，也关系到别人对你的想法和你对他们对你想法的想法。心理过程类似，于是这种纸牌游戏自然会经常引起某些人的极大兴趣，无论以何种标准衡量，这些人都是优秀的思考者。
The great mathematician John Von Neumann was one of the founders of game theory. In particular, he showed that all games fall into two classes: there are what he called games of “perfect information”, games like chess where the players can’t hide anything or play tricks: they don’t win by chance, but by means of logic and skills. Then there are games of “imperfect information”, like poker, in which it is impossible to know in advance that one course of action is better than another.
伟大的数学家约翰·冯·诺依曼是博弈论的创始人之一。他特别指出，所有博弈都分为两类：有他所谓的“完全信息”游戏，比如下棋，这类游戏玩家不能隐藏任何东西或玩把戏：他们不是靠运气获胜，而是靠逻辑和技巧。还有一些“不完全信息”游戏，比如扑克，在这些游戏中，不可能事先知道一种行为比另一种更好。
One mistaken idea about business is that it can be treated as a game of perfect information. Quite the reverse. Business, politics, life itself are games which we must normally play with very imperfect information. Business decisions are often made with many unknown and unknowable factors which would even puzzle best poker players. But few business people find it comfortable to admit that they are taking a chance, and many still prefer to believe that they are playing chess, not poker.
关于商业的一个错误观点是，它可以被视为一种完全信息游戏。恰恰相反，商业、政治、生活本身都是我们通常必须在非常不完全的信息前提下进行游戏。商业决策往往是在许多未知和不可知因素下做出的，这甚至会难住最优秀的扑克玩家。但是很少有生意人愿意承认他们在冒险，很多人仍然更愿意相信他们在下棋，而不是玩扑克。
