巴菲特1967十月信(三)。2024-11-20

英文早读第127篇,选自巴菲特年度信,友才翻译。

In my opinion what is resulting is speculation on an increasing scale. This is hardly a new phenomenon; however, a dimension has been added by the growing ranks of professional (in many cases formerly quite docile) investors who feel they must "get aboard". The game is dignified, of course, by appropriate ceremonies, personages and lexicon. To date it has been highly profitable. It may also be that this is going to be the standard nature of the market in the future. Nevertheless, it is an activiy at which I am sure I would not do particularly well. As I said on page five of my last annual letter,
在我看来这导致投机行为规模增长。这几乎不是一个新的现象;然而,范围被增长的专业投资者阶层(在很多情况之前相当温顺的)增加,他们相信他们必须“身在其中”。这个游戏显得很庄重,当然,通过适当的仪式,知名人士和专业词汇。到今天他变的相当能赚。或许也有可能将在未来成为市场的标准属性。然而,这是一个我确信我不能做的很好的行动。正如我在去年年度信中第五页所说的,

"Furthermore, we will not follow the frequently prevalent approach of investing in securities where an attempt to anticipate market action overrides business valuations. Such so-called 'fashion' investing has frequently produced very substantial and quick profits in recent years (and currently as I write this in January). It represents an investment technique whose soundness I can neither affirm nor deny. It does not completely satisfy my intellect (or perhaps my prejudices), and most definitely does not fit my temperament. I will not invest my own money based upon such an approach - hence, I will most certainly not do so with your money."
“更进一步,我们不会跟随这个频繁的流行投资股票方式,他仕途参与市场活动凌驾于业务价值。这类所谓的“时尚”投资经常产生非常大和快速的盈利在这些年(包括现在我这到这里的一月份)。他代表一种投资技术他的合理性我既不能同意也不能否认。他完全不满足我的认知(或者可能说是偏见),同时很确定不符合我的性情。我不会将我自己的钱以这类方式投资——因此,我相当确定也不会用你们的钱这样做。”

Any form of hyper-activity with large amounts of money in securities markets can create problems for all participants. I make no attempt to guess the action of the stock market and haven't the foggiest notion as to whether the Dow will be at 600, 900 or 1200 a year from now. Even if there are serious consequences resulting from present and future speculative activity, experience suggests estimates of timing are meaningless. However, I do believe certain conditions that now exist are likely to make activity in markets more difficult for us for the intermediate future.
大笔资金在股票市场任何形式的过渡活跃都可以对所有参与者造成问题。我不会试图猜测股市行动,也没有模糊的意念关于一年后道琼斯指数是否将会到600,900或者1200点。尽管现在和将来的投机行动会导致一些严重的问题,经验建议对时机的预估是没有意义的。然而,我的确相信现在存在的这些情况可能会让我们在不远的将来在市场采取行动更加困难。

The above may simply be "old-fogeyism" (after all, I am 37). When the game is no longer being played your way, it is only human to say the new approach is all wrong, bound to lead to trouble, etc. I have been scornful of such behavior by others in the past. I have also seen the penalties incurred by those who evaluate conditions as they were - not as they are. Essentially I am out of step with present conditions. On one point, however, I am clear. I will not abandon a previous approach whose logic I understand (although I find it difficult to apply) even though it may mean foregoing large and apparently easy, profits to embrace an approach which I don't fully understand, have not practiced successfully and which, possibly, could lead to substantial permanent loss of capital.
上面这些或许仅仅是“老顽固注意”(毕竟,我已经37岁了)。当游戏不再是按你的方式玩,人们仅仅说新的方式是错的,必然导致困难等等。在过去,我对他人这类行为感到鄙夷。我也目睹过那些按照过去的而非现在的情况去评估状况的人所收到的惩罚。本质上,我和现在的状况有些脱节。有一点,然而,我是清醒的。我不会抛弃现在的方法,他的逻辑我是理解的(尽管我发现他很难去应用)即使他可能意味着放弃大的且明显容易得利润去拥抱一个我不是很理解,还没有成功实践过,并且有可能导致大幅资金永久损失的方法。

The third point of difficulty involves our much greater base of capital. For years my investment ideas were anywhere from 110% to 1000% of our capital. It was difficult for me to concieve that a different condition could ever exist. I promised to tell partners when it did and in my January, 1967 letter had to make good on that promise. Largely because of the two conditions previously mentioned, our greater capital is now something of a drag on performance. I believe it is the least significant factor of the four mentioned, and that if we were operating with one-tenth of our present capital our performance would be little better. However, increased funds are presently a moderately negative factor.
困难的第三点包括我们大幅增加的资金基础。这些年我的投资标的都是我们资金的110%到1000%规模。对我来说很难想象一个不同的情况会存在。我承诺当他发生时会告诉合伙人,在1967年1月信中兑现了那个承诺。很大程度因为之前提到的2个情况,我们更大的资金现在某种程度是我们表现的拖累。我相信他是四个提到的因素中最不重要的,如果我们运作我们现在资金的十分之一,我们的表现将只会好一点点。然而,增加的资金现在算得上是负面因素。

35.speculation:投机;猜测;推测;推断
36.dimension:尺寸;方面;范围;程度;规模
37.docile:温顺的;驯服的;易控制的
38.dignified:端庄的;庄严的;庄重的
39.foggiest:有雾的;雾茫茫的
40.consequence:后果;结果;重要性
41.intermediate:中间的;中等的;中级的
42.fogeyism:顽固主义
43.bound to:必然;一定会;绑定到
44.scornful:轻蔑的;鄙夷的
45.foregoing:上述的;前述的;以上所述;先行;在……前面;放弃
46.embrace:拥抱;包括;欣然接受;乐意采纳
47.conceive:想出;想象;构想;怀孕;设想
48.make good:修复;恢复;赔偿;偿付;出名;发迹;实现
49.essentially:本质上;根本上

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